Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 63,268.0 | -2.26% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 1,821.20 | -1.85% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF | -205.86M | Net Outflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETF | -49.50M | Net Outflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 24,799.1 | +0.27% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,837.74 | -1.04% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,628.2 | +0.25% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.577 | +0.17% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 21.01 | +10.06% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.03050 | -1.24% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 72.034 | +0.63% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 5,174.69 | -1.01% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 88.059 | +0.06% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.23 am”
Today’s Key Events
- US ADP Weekly Employment Data
- CB Consumer Confidence
- FOMC Members Bostic, Collins, Waller, Cook, and Barkin to Speak
Trump Sends Message of Agreement on US-Iran Tensions
US President Trump said reports of going to war with Iran are “100% false.” Dismissing claims that General Daniel Caine refused to go to war against Iran, Trump emphasized that he is the decision-maker and prefers agreement over war. However, he stated that if no agreement is reached, the consequences for Iran would be “very bad.” The statements were interpreted as meaning that despite increasing military rhetoric, the door to diplomacy is not completely closed.
US Macro Data
- In the US, headline CPI for January came in below expectations at 2.4% annually and slightly below forecasts at 0.2% monthly. Core CPI was in line with expectations at 2.5% annually, with a monthly increase of 0.3%; however, renewed acceleration in the “super core” category left an upward inflation risk for the first quarter. Energy prices fell 1.5% monthly, used cars fell 1.8%, while housing growth slowed to 0.2%. The data showed that the disinflation process is continuing, but service inflation remains stubborn.
- U.S. fourth-quarter real GDP growth came in below expectations at an annualized rate of 1.4%. Much of the weakness stemmed from spending declines linked to the government shutdown, while consumption and private sector investment remained relatively strong. Real PCE rose 2.4%, in line with expectations. Excluding the decline in government contributions, growth is estimated to have been around 2.7%.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 came in below expectations at 206,000. Continuing claims rose modestly to 1.869 million. With the impact of snowfall diminishing, there was no sharp deterioration in the labor market. The data confirmed that the employment market remains resilient.
- The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for February came in below expectations at 51.2. The services PMI was reported at 52.3 and the composite PMI at 52.3, signaling a slight loss of momentum. While adverse weather conditions were cited as a factor in the weakness, the risk of rising input costs was noted.
“Soft Landing” Debate at the Fed
Nick Timiraos, known for his proximity to the Fed, noted that the US economy may have achieved a soft landing but cautioned against premature celebration. Although core inflation has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, the impact of tariffs on prices could create upward pressure. The decline in housing costs stands out as an important factor pulling inflation down. Fed officials are more concerned about inflation picking up again.
Supreme Court Overturns Trump Tariffs
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump’s global tariffs under the IEEPA exceeded presidential authority. The canceled tariffs included fentanyl tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as 10% global additional tariffs. The potential $170 billion refund process was left to lower courts. Following the ruling, the administration turned to new legal tools.
Trump Raised Global Tax to 15% Under Section 122
- Trump announced that, based on Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, he was imposing a 10% additional tariff on all imports for 150 days, then raised the rate to 15%. This section allows for temporary tariffs in cases of serious balance of payments problems, but there are limits on the duration and rate. Congressional approval is required for an extension. At the same time, the US Trade Representative launched a broad Section 301 investigation.
- According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is considering new Section 232 tariffs on six sectors, including batteries, cast iron, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and telecommunications equipment. This provision allows for tariffs to be imposed on national security grounds. The timing is not yet clear. The EU is reportedly preparing to freeze the trade agreement.
US-China Contacts and Visit Plans
The White House announced that Trump plans to visit China from March 31 to April 2, 2026. The Chinese side has not yet confirmed the visit. According to the WSJ, Beijing may demand an extension of the trade truce and further tariff reductions. The court ruling is seen as increasing China’s bargaining power.
US-Iran Tensions and Military Options
Indirect talks between the US and Iran lasted four hours, but progress on the nuclear issue was limited. Trump said he was considering the option of a limited military strike if Iran did not accept the terms. According to Axios, the Pentagon presented various plans, including options targeting Iran’s leadership. The entry of the US aircraft carrier USS Ford into the Mediterranean increased tensions.
Critical Week in Russia-Ukraine Talks
Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a two-hour closed meeting in Geneva, but no document was signed. A new round of talks is expected on February 26-27. US representative Witkoff mentioned the possibility of a high-level summit within three weeks. There were signs of progress on prisoner exchanges.
China’s January Financial Data Came in Strong
Total social financing in China exceeded expectations at CNY 7.22 trillion. New RMB loans were announced at CNY 4.71 trillion. M2 money supply rose to 9.0% annually, while M1 was 4.9%. The data showed that credit expansion accelerated at the beginning of the year.
New Chainlink-Origin Chief Legal Counsel at SEC
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that former Chainlink Labs executive Taylor Lindman has taken up the role of Chief Legal Counsel for the Crypto Task Force. Lindman replaces Michael Selig, who previously moved to the CFTC Chairmanship. Lindman, who worked at Chainlink for over five years, focused on oracle networks and smart contract data infrastructure. The SEC’s crypto task force aims to establish a regulatory framework in areas such as tokenization and DeFi.
Terraform Labs Files Lawsuit Against Jane Street
Terraform Labs’ court-appointed bankruptcy administrators have filed a lawsuit against Jane Street alleging insider trading. The lawsuit claims that transactions were made based on non-public information prior to a large withdrawal from the Terra USD (UST) liquidity pool. It is alleged that Jane Street-linked wallets withdrew 85 million UST, generating unjust enrichment. The company has not yet provided a detailed public response to the allegations.
Web3 Foundation Ends Official Support for Polkadot
The Web3 Foundation has announced that it will gradually end its official support services for Polkadot. Within a week, existing support channels will be closed and the AI chatbot will be deactivated. The foundation stated that this is a strategic restructuring and that user support will continue through community channels. In the future, support will be provided primarily through platforms such as Discord, Reddit, and Telegram.
Security Breach on IoTeX Bridge
IoTeX confirmed that an attack occurred on the Ethereum side of the multi-chain bridge ioTube. The attacker gained administrative privileges after compromising the account of the Ethereum validator contract owner and upgraded the contract to a malicious version. This resulted in the minting of 410 million CIOTX tokens and the transfer of approximately $4.4 million worth of assets from reserves. Enhanced security measures have been implemented following the incident.
