Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 71,280.0 | -2.73% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,104.13 | -1.84% |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 24,974.6 | -0.16% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,882.71 | -0.51% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,630.7 | -0.06% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.449 | +0.13% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 18.64 | +3.56% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.27764 | +0.17% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 68.739 | -1.04% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 4,922.82 | -0.82% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 79.232 | -9.96% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.15 am”
Today’s Key Events
- US Jobless Claims and December JOLTS Job Openings
- FOMC Member Bostic to Speak
- Amazon Earnings Report
US ADP Employment Data
US January ADP private sector employment growth fell short of expectations at 22,000. The previous month’s figure was revised downward from 41,000 to 37,000, indicating that hiring weakened at the beginning of the year. Education and Health Care and Financial Activities contributed to employment growth, while Professional and Business Services, Other Services, and Manufacturing saw significant losses. The manufacturing sector has been net job losers since March 2024, with employment declines particularly noticeable among large firms. The overall picture shows that employment has stalled but has not yet deteriorated rapidly.
US Services PMI Data
The January ISM services PMI data came in above expectations at 53.8, maintaining its strong momentum. The New Orders index reached its highest level in 12 months, indicating that domestic demand remained resilient. In contrast, New Export Orders showed a sharp decline, signaling that service exports were negatively affected by customs duties and policy uncertainties. The final Markit services PMI also remained in expansion territory at 52.7. The overall picture shows that the service sector is strong, while manufacturing is in a gradual recovery.
US Data Calendar Update
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the January nonfarm payrolls report will be released on February 11. Job openings data will be released on February 5, and the January CPI report will be released on February 13. The data calendar is gradually returning to normal after the government shutdown. Next week’s NFP and CPI data releases will be critical for Fed expectations.
US-Iran Talks
Talks between the US and Iran are scheduled to take place on Friday, February 6, in Muscat, Oman. While Iran wants the talks to be limited to nuclear issues, the US insists that the missile program and proxy forces also be on the agenda. Although the talks were briefly canceled, they were rescheduled with the intervention of regional leaders. The uncertainty of the process is increasing the geopolitical risk premium. The talks are being closely monitored in terms of macro markets.
US Russia Ukraine Talks
The first day of talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine ended without concrete progress. The talks are expected to continue on Thursday in a working group format. US Secretary of State Rubio said there has been progress in some areas, but the most difficult issues remain on the table. It is noted that the agenda is narrower than last year. Expectations for a major breakthrough in the short term are limited.
China-Russia Contacts
Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The timing of the meeting is considered critical due to the expiration of the US-Russia nuclear arms reduction agreement. Chinese and Russian diplomats in Beijing reached broad consensus on global security and arms control. These contacts contain messages about a multipolar security architecture.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent
US Treasury Secretary Bessent faced intense questioning in the House of Representatives on tariffs, Fed independence, and cryptocurrencies. While arguing that tariffs would not increase inflation, he reiterated his strong dollar policy. On the topic of cryptocurrencies, he emphasized that it was not possible to purchase Bitcoin with public funds. He stated that the GENIUS stablecoin bill could be important in terms of public finance. Allegations of a conflict of interest with World Liberty Financial were also at the center of the discussions.
Senate Fed Debate
Democratic members of the Senate Banking Committee requested that the Fed chair nomination process be postponed. They requested that the process be halted until investigations into the current Fed administration are completed. However, Committee Chairman Scott said the confirmation of nominee Kevin Warsh was certain. The debate increased the perception of political pressure on the Fed.
Xi-Trump Meeting
The talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump generally conveyed positive messages. While the US side focused on trade and agricultural purchases, China highlighted the Taiwan issue as a priority agenda item. China committed to increasing soybean purchases from the US. The groundwork was laid for Trump’s planned visit to China in April. The Taiwan issue remains the most sensitive topic in the relationship.
Google Financial Results
Google reported strong financial results that exceeded market expectations across all major items. Search advertising and Google Cloud growth accelerated significantly, with Cloud revenues increasing 48% year-over-year. Artificial intelligence demand led to a strong increase in remaining performance obligations. However, the high capital expenditure forecast announced for 2026 raised concerns about excessive investment. The stock price showed a limited decline after closing.
CLARITY Act Gives Positive Signal
According to Crypto Correspondent Eleanor Terrett, Positive Messages Emerged from a Closed Session Within the Democratic Party. A Party Staff Member Stated that the Meeting Was the Most Productive Democratic Party Discussion to Date. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer Attended the Meeting, Emphasizing the Importance of Industry Participation. He also called for maintaining momentum and for the CLARITY Act to be passed into law as soon as possible.
WLFI Investment Under Investigation
The U.S. House of Representatives has launched an investigation into the World Liberty Financial project linked to Trump. The investigation focuses on the project’s possible links to foreign sovereign capital and national security risks. The Wall Street Journal report revealed that an Abu Dhabi-linked entity had secretly agreed to purchase approximately 49% of the company’s shares for $500 million in early 2025. US Representative Ro Khanna requested the company’s share structure, payment details, and internal communication records. He also asked whether there was a $187 million cash flow to assets linked to the Trump family.
Pension Funds Suffer Bitcoin Losses
Many public pension funds in the US suffered significant losses due to their investments in Strategy. Amid the decline in Bitcoin prices, the funds’ investments lost approximately $337 million in value. Ten out of the 11 funds suffered losses of around 60%. Strategy shares lost 67% of their value. This situation has brought the risks associated with investing in crypto assets for retirement back into the spotlight.
Fidelity Announces New Stablecoin
Fidelity Digital Assets has introduced a new stablecoin project called Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD). It was announced that FIDD will operate pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. The project is seen as part of Fidelity Investments’ strategy to expand its digital asset operations. The new stablecoin is expected to offer digital payment and liquidity solutions for corporate and individual users.
Permissioned DEX Coming to XRPL
RippleX announced that the Permissioned Domains feature has been successfully integrated into the XRPL mainnet. The Permissioned DEX feature has been approved by validators and will go live within two weeks. This development aims to provide institutions with access to compliant liquidity pools on XRPL. It also plans to offer a more secure and regulation-compliant transaction infrastructure for corporate users.
Polkadot Contract Activity Weak
Polkadot officially launched its smart contract feature on January 27. However, only 19 smart contracts were deployed within a week, which is quite low compared to Ethereum and Solana. The Polkadot team noted that early on-chain data is limited in meaning. The team emphasized that the ecosystem will strengthen over time with new integrations. They also stated that they will continue to focus on long-term market expansion.
Cookie DAO Prediction Market
Cookie DAO announced that it plans to make large-scale investments in prediction markets. The project aims to simplify user transactions and make prediction a daily habit. According to data, the prediction market is expected to reach a trading volume of $47 billion by 2025. It was also noted that the daily trading volume exceeded $800 million in January alone.
Espresso Tokenomics Model Revealed
Blockchain Infrastructure Project Espresso Officially Introduced the ESP Token Economy. The Total Initial Supply Was Set at 3.59 Billion, While It Was Revealed That the Supply Could Change Dynamically Due to the Staking Mechanism. 27.36% of the supply was allocated to contributors, 14.32% to investors, and 10% to airdrop distribution. Additionally, 24.81% was planned for future incentive programs. It was stated that a long-term unlocking schedule would be applied to the majority of the token distribution.
