Macro Signals Reshape Risk

ADP job data, crypto regulation progress, and institutional caution frame shifting risk expectations across markets.
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Soft US jobs and regulation shift risk

ADP Employment Data

The ADP private sector employment data for January in the US fell short of expectations. Only 22,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, while the previous month’s data was revised downward. With official BLS data delayed due to the partial federal government shutdown, the ADP figures became the most important reference point of the week. The data indicates that the cooling in the labor market continued at the start of the year.

Market Structure Act

White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt said the Market Structure Act is the “crown jewel” of crypto regulations. According to Witt, this law is as important as the GENIUS Act, and even more critical. The statements indicate that expectations for a comprehensive legal framework for digital assets in the US continue. Clarification of market structure regulations could be decisive in terms of institutional participation.

U.S. Department of Labor

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that it has returned to normal, full-capacity operations as of February 4. It was noted that some data delayed due to the partial government shutdown will be rescheduled. The new release date for the January nonfarm payrolls report will be announced later. This development has increased expectations for normalization in the data calendar.

Citi Bitcoin Assessment

Citibank stated that the slowdown in ETF fund flows is putting pressure on Bitcoin performance. The bank said that the crypto market is approaching a critical turning point, but that a prolonged “crypto winter” scenario is still seen as an extreme risk. It was emphasized that US legislation on the structure of the digital asset market is a potential trigger. However, it was noted that the market is pricing in this possibility as low due to slow progress in Congress.

CoinShares SPAC Process

CoinShares and its SPAC partner Vine Hill submitted a revised draft F-4 registration statement to the SEC. This step indicates that regulatory review is progressing in the merger and IPO process. Completion of the transaction is subject to a number of conditions, including shareholder approvals and court rulings. The relevant hearing is scheduled for February 17, 2026.

JPMorgan Family Offices

JPMorgan Chase’s 2026 Global Family Offices Report revealed continued disinterest in crypto. According to the report, 89% of family offices do not hold cryptocurrency, and 72% do not invest in gold. In contrast, artificial intelligence is a priority investment area for 65% of family offices. The findings show that large capital remains cautious and selective.

Nasdaq Fast Track Rule

Nasdaq has proposed a new “fast inclusion” rule to respond more quickly to large IPOs. Under the new regulation, companies could be included in the Nasdaq 100 index after the first 15 trading days. Under the current system, this process takes at least three months. The aim is to ensure the index reflects market realities more accurately.

Artificial Intelligence Antitrust Review

US senators have requested an investigation into whether artificial intelligence agreements by large technology companies restrict competition. Agreements made by Nvidia, Meta, and Google with certain startups were described as “reverse mergers.” The senators argued that these transactions carry the risk of circumventing merger controls. They called for strict oversight from the FTC and the Department of Justice.

Ethereum L2 Debate

The ecosystem responded to Vitalik Buterin’s statements that L2s need to specialize. Arbitrum and Optimism argued that scaling remains their core value proposition. Base emphasized that L2s should not merely be “cheaper Ethereum,” highlighting its focus on user acquisition and privacy. The debate revealed divergent visions for the future of L2s within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Tether Funding Target

Tether reduced its funding target from $15–20 billion to $5 billion. CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the previous figures were misunderstood and that this was not a target but the maximum amount of shares that could be sold. He emphasized that the company is profitable and can continue without new funding. It was noted that Tether made approximately $10 billion in profit last year.

 

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk. Always do your own research before making decisions. Darkex is not liable for any financial losses.
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