Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 07.54 am”

Today’s Key Events

• President Trump’s Schedule Includes a Signing Ceremony
• US Macro Data Set Includes PPI and Retail Sales
• FOMC Members Miran, Kashkari, and Williams to Speak
• U.S. Beige Book to be Released
• Bank of America Corp, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo Earnings Reports
• BNB Fermi Hard Fork

Fed Officials: Interest Rate Cut Not on the Agenda in January

• St. Louis Fed President Musalem said that current policies are sufficient to address price stability and employment risks, adding that there is no need for interest rate cuts at this stage. Emphasizing that interest rates are close to neutral levels, Musalem said that there is no need for further cuts as long as inflation remains high.
• Richmond Fed President Barkin pointed out that there is a delicate balance and that rapid interest rate cuts are not necessary. Barkin said inflation is above target but not accelerating, and unemployment is rising but not out of control. Calling CPI data encouraging, Barkin said tariffs could create cost and inflation pressures in the future, but the timing is uncertain.

Tension Eases on Trump Front Amid Powell Investigation

It is believed that tensions within Trump’s team may gradually ease following the possibility of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell facing criminal charges. DC federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro, who is leading the investigation, stated that she had repeatedly contacted the federal government regarding cost overruns and Powell’s congressional testimony but received no response, forcing her to initiate legal proceedings. Pirro said this was not a threat and that the term “indictment” was used by Powell.

Messages from President Trump on Domestic and Foreign Policy

• Donald Trump argued that Fed Chairman Powell had spent “billions of dollars” too much, saying this was either incompetence or corruption. Trump, who said Powell was not doing a good job, reiterated that he would announce the new Fed chair in the coming weeks. Trump also said the Justice Department investigation would not affect this process. According to Polymarket data, Kevin Warsh leads the race for Fed chair with 40%, while Kevin Hassett stands at 34%.
• Trump announced his support for the “Credit Card Competition Act” to strengthen his position in the midterm elections. Trump, who previously advocated a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, this time called on lawmakers to openly support the regulation. JPMorgan warned that the proposed interest rate cap could harm the economy.

CPI and ADP Released in US Macro Data Set

• In the US, the December CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations (expectation 2.7%, previous 2.7%). On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3%, in line with market expectations (0.3%). December Core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, falling short of expectations (expectation 2.7%, previous 2.6%). Monthly core CPI rose 0.2%, below the expectation of 0.3%.
• As of December 20, weekly employment growth in the US was announced as +11,750 based on the four-week average. The previous figure was +11,000. In addition, employment growth for the week of December 6 was revised to +8,750 (previous +11,500).

Nick Timiraos: Powell Investigation Could Put Trump’s Nominees in a Tight Spot

Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed’s confidant,” wrote that Trump allies and some officials are concerned that the potential criminal investigation into Powell could backfire. According to Timiraos, the Justice Department process could jeopardize Senate confirmations and cause serious turbulence in financial markets.

Possibility of US Military Intervention in Iran Increases

It is reported that the possibility of US military intervention in Iran has increased. Scenarios include “decapitation” attacks targeting senior leaders or direct operations against military and nuclear facilities. According to the latest messages, actions could be finalized within 1-2 weeks. While rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices up by more than 2%, it is estimated that oil prices could fall in the long term if the US increases its control over Iran.

US Vice President Vance Leads Iran Strategy

According to NewsNation, US Vice President JD Vance is leading strategic planning on Iran by meeting with the national security team. Trump announced his support for the protesters in Iran and that aid is on the way. He also announced that all talks with Iranian officials have been canceled.

Forbes: Artificial Intelligence Increases the Scale of Crypto Fraud

According to Forbes, revenue from crypto fraud on the chain reached $14.00 billion in 2025, and as more addresses are identified, this figure is expected to exceed $17.00 billion. According to Chainalysis data, fraud groups using artificial intelligence tools have an average profit per transaction of approximately $3.2 million. This figure is approximately 4.5 times higher than that of fraudsters who do not use artificial intelligence (approximately $719,000). Artificial intelligence significantly increases the prevalence and success rate of social engineering scams through fake identity creation and deepfake technologies.

Over 130 Amendments Proposed for Crypto Market Bill in US Senate

Over 130 amendment proposals have been submitted for the crypto market structure bill scheduled for discussion in the U.S. Senate this week. The proposals cover rules regarding stablecoin yields, $DeFi provisions, restrictions on public officials’ interests in crypto assets, and regulations regarding the definition of digital asset mixers. The amendments were jointly submitted by both Democratic and Republican senators. The Senate Banking Committee will discuss these proposals at a hearing on Thursday and vote on whether to include them in the bill. While some proposals have bipartisan support, strengthening disclosures and risk warnings, particularly regarding stablecoin yields, is a key focus.

DZ Bank Begins Offering Crypto Trading in Germany by Acquiring MiCAR License

Germany’s second-largest bank, DZ Bank, has acquired a MiCAR crypto trading license, gaining the authority to offer digital asset trading through its “meinKrypto” platform. This will enable Volksbanken and Raiffeisen banks to offer their customers the purchase and sale of crypto assets such as $BTC, $ETH, $LTC, and $ADA within VR Banking applications. The platform was developed by DZ Bank and IT service provider Atruvia. Custody services will be provided by Boerse Stuttgart Digital, while trading will be conducted through EUWAX AG.

JPMorgan CFO: Yield-Generating Stablecoins Pose Parallel Banking Risks

JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum stated during the fourth-quarter earnings call that the bank supports blockchain innovation but is cautious about yield-bearing stablecoin designs. Barnum warned that without adequate regulation, such stablecoins could replicate traditional banking and create a “dangerous and undesirable parallel banking system.” According to Barnum, interest-bearing deposit-like structures could pose serious risks if integrated into the financial system without capital adequacy and risk management obligations. The latest revised draft legislation aims to ban yield payments based on stablecoin holdings, while leaving limited room for incentives based on network activities such as staking, liquidity provision, and governance.

US Senators Call for Suspension of WLFI Trust Bank Application

US Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for the suspension of World Liberty Trust Co.’s application for a national trust bank license due to the Trump family’s failure to divest its interests in digital asset projects. Warren reportedly highlighted serious conflicts of interest in a letter sent to Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Director Jonathan Gould. Warren emphasized that the GENIUS Act falls short in addressing such ethical issues and that the Senate must address these conflicts when evaluating cryptocurrency market legislation.

Russian State Duma: Cryptocurrencies May Be Removed from Special Financial Regulation

Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Financial Markets Committee, announced that a bill is ready to remove cryptocurrencies from the scope of special financial regulation. Aksakov stated that they aim to encourage the widespread use of cryptocurrencies in the daily lives of Russian citizens and that this topic will be given extensive coverage during the spring session. It was stated that the new approach aims to remove crypto assets from being a special regulatory area and make them a common economic phenomenon.

France: 30% of Unlicensed Cryptocurrency Companies Have Not Reported Their Future Plans

The French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) announced that approximately 30% of unlicensed cryptocurrency companies in the country have not reported whether they will apply for a license or cease operations. In France, where there are currently around 90 unlicensed companies, 30% of companies have applied, while 40% have stated they will not apply. The MiCA transition period will end on June 30, and ESMA is requesting regular exit plans from unauthorized companies by this date. Coinbase, Circle, and Revolut had previously obtained MiCA licenses.

Bitdeer Surpasses MARA in Hashrate Size

Bitdeer Technologies Group has surpassed $MARA Holdings in terms of “managed hashrate,” becoming the world’s largest Bitcoin mining company. As of the end of December 2025, Bitdeer’s total managed hashrate stands at approximately 71 EH/s, with 55.2 EH/s belonging to the company’s own operations. The energized hashrate announced by $MARA is approximately 61.7 EH/s. However, uncertainty remains as to whether the metrics used by the two companies are directly comparable.

Berachain Foundation Downsizes Retail Investor Marketing Team

In its year-end update, the Berachain Foundation announced that it had parted ways with most of its retail investor marketing team and would focus its resources on core development; the foundation stated that the departure process was amicable and confirmed that lead developer Alberto would be stepping down. In the future, the foundation will focus on 3-5 high-reliability applications that are not dependent on market fluctuations and have little overlap with the current ecosystem, and will provide official support to these projects with special $PoL token incentives.

Lighter Launches Lighter Mobile Trading App

Lighter announced the launch of the Lighter Mobile app. Users can now buy and sell assets anytime, anywhere on iOS (available in over 100 countries and regions) and Android devices, including perpetual futures, spot, and real-world assets (RWAs).

Vitalik Buterin: The Rebirth of Decentralization is Approaching

In a post on the X platform, Vitalik stated that the vision of Web3 in 2014 was to build a permissionless, decentralized application ecosystem. Although this vision has been overshadowed by various narratives, he said that the underlying technology is growing stronger. He highlighted that Ethereum has transitioned to PoS, and the scaling solutions, ZK-EVM, and sharding vision with PeerDAS have come to life. Vitalik stated that all the prerequisites for Web3’s original vision are now in place and that the decentralized construction process must begin.

Pundi AI Partners with BasePerp, the Perpetual Futures Protocol on Base

Pundi AI announced its partnership with BasePerp, a perpetual contract trading protocol built on Base. This partnership aims to utilize verifiable on-chain data for AI-powered trading strategies, market analysis, and risk forecasting. The collaboration seeks to enhance the transparency and data quality of AI-powered DeFi products within the Base ecosystem.

DefiLlama: Aave Reaches 51.3% Share in the DeFi Lending Market

According to DefiLlama data, Aave’s share in the DeFi lending market has risen to 51.3%, marking the first time since 2020 that a single lending protocol has surpassed the 50% threshold.

Aave’s lending TVL stands at approximately $3.58 billion, while Morpho, JustLend, SparkLend, and Maple are the other protocols completing the top five.

CoinGecko: Number of Failed Tokens Reached 11.56 Million in 2025

According to CoinGecko data, the number of failed cryptocurrencies rose to 11,564,909 in 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, 7.7 million tokens collapsed, accounting for 34.9% of all failures. The sharp decline in token survival rates is said to be related to the major liquidation waves that occurred during the year.

Daily Trading Volume in Prediction Markets Hits Record High of $702 Million

Despite recent regulatory scrutiny, activity in prediction markets has not slowed down. On Monday, the total trading volume reached a record $701.7 million. Approximately $465.9 million of this volume was provided by Kalshi, while Polymarket and Opinion contributed a combined total of approximately $100 million.

FTX: Next Payment Round to Begin on March 31

FTX announced that the registration date for the next distribution has been set for February 14, 2026, and payments will begin on March 31, 2026. In addition, a revised notice was submitted to the court to reduce the fund allocated for disputed claims by $2.2 billion. If approved, this amount will be distributed to verified creditors.

BNB Chain Completes Fermi Upgrade: Block Production Speed Increases by 40%

BNB Chain has implemented its third major network upgrade, called Fermi. With the upgrade, block production speed has increased by 40%, while the final confirmation time has been reduced to approximately 1 second. The update also includes significant technical improvements in validator coordination, data access efficiency, and transaction execution performance.