A Fragile Ceasefire & Powell’s Speech in Focus

MARKTKOMPASS

A Fragile Ceasefire

• In global markets, we have seen the positive repercussions of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran under Trump’s leadership. However, the latest news keep geopolitical risks alive.
• First, Israel claimed that Iran violated the ceasefire. Then US President Trump stated that both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire and that he was not happy with Israel.
• However, we do not see a major negative impact on prices for now (at the time of writing) due to the renewed tensions.
• We can state that statements regarding ceasefire violations and how the issue will evolve are important. In the rest of the day, developments on this issue seem to be decisive in the direction of prices.
• On the other hand, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s presentation to the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee and his remarks will be closely monitored.
• In digital assets, we see that the rises coming with the news of the ceasefire are maintained. It is noteworthy that Trump blamed not only Iran but also Israel this time, and the softening of the US stance should be carefully monitored. The fact that the tension does not escalate further and Trump shifts to the neutral area to some extent may be the basis for the preservation of recent gains and may pave the way for new rises.

Yesterday, we stated, “We think that upward reaction movements may come during the day, softening our expectation that digital assets may have difficulty rising in the short term.” We think that recent pricing is in line with this prediction and that it is now possible to see more horizontal price changes after the recent gains for the short term. For the medium and long term, we have partially changed our “upside view” to “sideways” for the medium term and we maintain this stance. The main determinant of this expectation is our expectation that revived geopolitical risks will remain on the agenda of the markets for a while. In the longer term, we see no reason to change our bullish outlook.

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FED Chair Powell’s Speech

At last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Federal Reserve left the policy rate unchanged as expected. What was noteworthy was the Committee’s downward revision in growth expectations and upward revision in inflation expectations. In addition, the FED seems to have kept its view that it may cut rates twice in the rest of the year and the Bank’s Chairman Powell made it clear that a wait-and-see strategy and any further changes at this time would be unwarranted.

Fed Chair Powell will make presentations to policymakers today and Mittwoch. First, today, he will speak before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in Washington DC about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and answer questions from the Committee members. Tomorrow, he will repeat his presentation, this time before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Of these, today’s speech is more important because the President will address both committees with the same text.

We do not expect Powell to change his stance as he did in the press conference following the last FOMC meeting. He will continue to say that the Fed will continue to wait for a better picture of the impact of the tariffs and that they will assess the economic repercussions of the developments in the Middle East. Apart from that, a surprise announcement could change the expectations (albeit unlikely) that the Bank could make two rate cuts by the end of the year. In such a case, we may see sharp changes in asset prices.

Other Macro Indicators

CB Consumer Confidence It is the result of a survey of approximately 3,000 individual consumers asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions. It measures financial confidence as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is published monthly, on the last Dienstag of the current month.

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