MARKTKOMPASS
Tariff Impact on Markets
US President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated tariffs were announced yesterday. The markets were expecting a positive surprise but this did not materialize and the President imposed very high tariffs, especially on some Asian companies. In this context, new tariffs of 54% on China, 46% on Vietnam, 49% on Cambodia, 6% on Thailand, 24% on Japan, 32% on Taiwan, 30% on South Africa and 20% across the European Union.
The news caused a clear risk aversion in global markets. The new tariffs are expected to put downward pressure on global economic growth and upward pressure on inflation. This potential deterioration was reflected in prices, with the price of gold hitting a new record high of $367 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc were also in demand as a result of the same impulse. European stock markets fell between 1%-2%, while Wall Street index futures were down by as much as 3%. US Treasuries gained and yields fell sharply. Digital assets were also affected by this equation and suffered losses.
After Trump’s Statements…
The President’s tough tariffs could have devastating consequences for the global economy and trade. But we think that Donald Trump continues to use tariffs as a negotiating tool before coming to the table. It’s just that the President is playing hardball. For the markets, these announcements are likely to continue to weigh on the markets in the short term. After that, the outcome of the negotiations with China, the European Union (EU) and Japan will be particularly important. China and the EU seem to be preparing for counter tariffs. However, we think they will want to sit down with Trump before giving a quick response. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU is preparing to take further countermeasures against US tariffs if negotiations fail. There was a similar statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
The worst-case scenario is that the leaders of the major economies fail to reach a compromise. But we do not think this is very likely to happen. For the markets, how tough the negotiations will be decisive. If the time it takes to find a compromise is prolonged, risky assets, including digital assets, may continue to lose value. On the other hand, if there is a quick mutual reaction (even with the tariff uncertainty removed), there may even be an opportunity for a more favorable environment for new rallies. For the short term, however, we think that markets may continue to sell bad news for now.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets have already priced in the “best case scenario”, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, has been putting pressure on digital assets for some time. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term with the lack of a new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and further concerns that economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term (in general), markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions regarding the announced tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Zeit | Nachrichten | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Wormhole (W) – 1.3875 Billion Token Unlock | - | - |
| - | Big Time (BIGTIME) – 333.33 Million Token Unlock | - | - |
| - | Arbitrum (ARB) – RWAs on ARB X Spaces | - | - |
| 12:30 | US Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung | 225K | 224K |
| 13:45 | US Final Services PMI (Mar) | 54.1 | 54.3 |
| 14:00 | US ISM Services PMI (Mar) | 53.0 | 53.5 |
| 16:00 | FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks | - | - |
| 18:30 | FOMC-Mitglied Cook spricht | - | - |
INFORMATIONEN:
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