MARKTKOMPASS
Turbulence Continues in Global Markets
- Trump said on Sonntag that he would continue to implement his tariff plan as long as the trade deficit with China remains unresolved.
- Last week, Trump’s tariffs and China’s announcement that it would impose counter-tariffs caused historical pricing and turmoil in global markets. The European Union (EU) also announced that it would retaliate. Today, EU leaders are meeting to discuss their response to Trump. The results will be important for how the “trade war” issue will evolve.
- After deep losses in Asian stock markets, European indices are also selling sharply today. Wall Street futures are selling over 3% on expectations that it will not be easy to compromise with Trump’s announcement on Sonntag. Risk-averse behavior was also reflected in digital assets.
Global markets are in turmoil, sparked by US President Donald Trump. Moreover, the President’s recent stance that he will not back down on tariffs has caused fear to spread. Concerns that a global trade war could lead to recession in major economies led to sharp losses in assets considered to be relatively risky.
Meanwhile, the most important macro indicator of the week will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for März on Donnerstag. Of course, tariffs play a more dominant role in prices than macro dynamics. Nevertheless, the detail that should not be overlooked amid this agenda is that markets are pricing in an increased likelihood of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Mai 7. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at that meeting are around 47% at the time of writing. This rate was around 13% about a week ago. In other words, we can say that the markets think that the Fed is closer to a rate cut in the tense environment created by the tariffs, seeing the recession concerns in the markets.
The tariffs issue will continue to be a determining factor for asset prices. New announcements and Trump’s stance in the face of the EU and China’s stance will determine the dose of the climate of fear. It is thought that the US President will sit at the negotiating table to change the trade balance that is unfavorable to his country, but it is also true that he is playing the game very hard. On April 9th, we will closely monitor whether a compromise can be reached with trade partners ahead of the high tariffs that will be implemented on a country-by-country basis. In the meantime, the upcoming statements will also be closely monitored by the markets.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term with the lack of new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and further concerns that economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term (in general), markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions regarding the announced tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Time (UTC) | News / Event | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ganztägig | Kaspa (KAS) – 153.24 Million Token Unlock | - | |
| 13:00 | Cartesi (CTSI) – Ecosystem Call | - | |
| Time TBD | Livepeer (LPT) – Treasury Talk | - | |
INFORMATIONEN:
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