MARKTKOMPASS
One Day to Tariffs
- After the sharp declines in the stock markets, there was a historic volatility yesterday as a result of some fake news in the press.
- Reports that Trump was considering delaying the tariffs for 90 days were later denied by the White House, leading to unprecedented falls and rises in Wall Street indices.
- The US President’s high tariffs on individual countries will be activated tomorrow. Beforehand, Trump held talks with some of his other trading partners. Among them, Japan and the European Union (EU) stand out. With the EU, however, we have seen no compromise and the zero-to-zero offer made by the Union was rejected by Trump. European stock markets are on the rebound today after the recent sell-off as they await the EU’s decision on the counter-tariff move.
- Tensions between the US and China continue. China says they are ready to fight, while Trump continues to threaten higher tariffs.
The deterioration in investor psychology caused by the tariff agenda and trade war risk seems to continue to make its impact felt. Although we have seen a rise in global stock market indices today, we consider this as a reaction to the turbulence of the last two trading days. It is difficult to say that the markets have left the worst behind without a tangible compromise step.
In digital assets, we continue to watch the reflection of changes in global markets. Rather than the information flow of its own ecosystem, the crypto world is more influenced by the behavior in which expectations regarding the global economy are priced. In the coming days, macro dynamics may also increase its weight among the variables that shape prices. In this context, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released on Donnerstag will be closely monitored. Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut path also change frequently. Sometime yesterday, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool was showing a higher probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Mai 7th. At the time of writing, the probability of a rate hike is priced at around 71%. Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that concrete data is needed before deciding on the next move. It seems that there will be no rate cut at the next FOMC meeting.
In the continuation of the day, if there is no new development on tariffs, we think that the pressure on the digital assets front may continue. In major cryptocurrencies, under the assumption that there will be no new information flow, sharp declines or rises may not occur. Apart from this, it is necessary to continue to closely monitor the flow of information on this market-shaking issue.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term as there is no new news flow to create enthusiasm in the crypto market and concerns that economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and developments regarding tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Time (UTC) | News / Event | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Tensor (TNSR) – 120 Million Token Unlock | - | |
| Ganztägig | Paris Blockchain Week Begins | - | |
| 18:00 | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | - | |
INFORMATIONEN:
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