MARKTKOMPASS
Markets Painted Red Again
- The US’s high country-based tariffs went into effect this morning.
- With China not backing down, Trump imposed additional tariffs on this country and the tax on Chinese exports to the US was 104%.
- While other major economies such as Europe and Japan are expected to negotiate, there is talk that the European Union (EU) may make a statement today. As it has announced before, the EU is not ruling out the imposition of counter-taxes.
- With the escalation of trade wars, global markets were painted red again. Although Wall Street tried to spend the day well, it completed yesterday in the negative area with the subsequent sales. Today, European indices have losses of over 2%.
- The decline in interest rates reversed with the safe haven demand for Treasury assets. Trade wars seem to have called into question the ability of US debt as a safe haven
- The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond, which fell as low as 3.86% on April 3, hit 4.51% today. As the markets continue to digest the impact of President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures on growth and inflation, foreign selling and some investors starting to raise cash have contributed to the rise in bond yields.
- The probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED) at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Mai 7th has increased again. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, at the time of writing, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 48% at the time of writing, and it was observed to have risen above 50% during the day.
- Digital assets continue to be affected by the highly volatile climate in global markets. Major cryptocurrencies remain under pressure in general with the classic pricing model brought by the uncertainty environment, and we think this may continue for a while with intermediate reactions.
- The minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting, which will be published today, may provide information on the FED’s rate cut path, but we underline that the ecosystem has changed considerably since the last meeting and the FED’s interest rate path should be evaluated under the new conjuncture conditions. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released tomorrow will be important.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term with the lack of a new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and further concerns that economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and developments regarding the announced tariffs.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Zeit | Nachrichten | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Movement (MOVE) – 50 Million Token Unlock | - | - |
| - | Saga (SAGA) – 133.34 Million Token Unlock | - | - |
| - | IOST (IOST) – Airdrop Claim | - | - |
| 18:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | - | - |
INFORMATIONEN
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