MARKTKOMPASS
Global Uncertainty…
- Options and futures contracts worth around $4.5 trillion that will expire in the US today due to “triple witching” are expected to create volatility.
- Tariffs and geopolitical developments continue to influence pricing behavior. Amid these concerns, Wall Street indices declined yesterday on the back of a couple of poor corporate balance sheets and futures are pointing to a selloff opening today.
- FedEx lowered its profit forecast for the third quarter in a row, citing inflation and uncertain demand for shipments.
- Declines are observed in European stock markets today. While the US was expected to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the EU’s countermeasures were postponed until mid-April.
- Britain’s Heathrow Airport was closed and flights around the world were disrupted after a massive fire nearby knocked out power
- On the continent, investors are closely watching Germany’s upper house of parliament vote on the debt brake amendment, which has already been approved by the lower house.
- Digital assets, which showed signs of recovery for a while during the week, continue to be pressured by the reflections of the situation in global perception.
Investors in global markets are becoming more risk averse as uncertainty continues to rise, and this is having an impact on the value of digital currencies. Yesterday, we saw President Trump, in a pre-recorded video, fail to say anything new about cryptocurrencies at an event. The pressure from this lack of catalyst, which we’ve been highlighting for some time, combined with the ecosystem in traditional markets, is preventing us from seeing strong rallies. The news that the SEC dropped the Ripple case also did not create a significant new variable effect.
We forecast that the pressure may continue with interim rebounds later in the day and throughout the weekend. Towards the end of the Wall Street session, we may expect an increase in volatility due to the expiry of options and futures contracts. Investors should be careful during the relevant hours.
(Freitag, März 21) – Quadruple witching; refers to the simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts for stock options, index futures and index futures options four times a year. In fact, it is now called “triple witching”. This is because single stock futures, the fourth type of contract included in quadruple witching, have not been traded in the US since 2020. This period occurs on the third Freitag of März, Juni, September and Dezember. In the markets, volatility and volume increase on triple witching days, especially towards the end of the session… This is why it is closely monitored by investors.
Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow that will create enthusiasm in the market and if concerns about slowing economic activity in global markets increase further. We emphasize that there is no problem with the gradual spot asset accumulation strategy, but caution should be exercised in leveraged “long” transactions. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs, which could keep volatility high.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Zeit | News / Event | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Immutable (IMX): 24.52M Token Unlock | - | |
| 13:05 | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | - | |
INFORMATIONEN
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