Marktkompass
Tariff Tension New Phase
President Trump’s stance on tariffs, one of the biggest concerns of the markets since his inauguration in Januar, has finally become a less worrisome topic for investors. Talks between the US and China have progressed positively and a temporary compromise has been reached between the two countries. As we stated in our previous analysis, we maintain our view that high tariffs are a weapon for Trump before he sits down at the negotiating table. However, we do not think that this agenda has reached the final stage yet. The fact that a compromise has been reached, albeit tentative, makes us cautious due to Trump’s unpredictable behavior. Nevertheless, it would not be wrong to say that the worst is behind us.
As we start the new week, both the geopolitical agenda and possible new developments on trade wars will remain under the spotlight of the markets. In addition, it is likely that we will see the effects of the damage caused by the high tariffs imposed in early April on consumer perception in new macro indicators, and in this context, macro data from the US, the world’s largest economy, will continue to be closely monitored. The timing of the next interest rate move by the US Federal Reserve (FED) will be a decisive dynamic in the dose of global financial tightness. Accordingly, we may be in for a period in which the FED and US data will become more prominent. Among these, this week we will be closely monitoring the PMI data, which will provide information about the state of the manufacturing sector. In addition, the statements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will also be closely monitored in the new week.
Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released on a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A below-forecast reading is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Considering the recent developments, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.
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