As Crypto Week Comes to a Close…
It has been a dizzying week en the world of digital assets. Policymakers en the world’s largest economy approved three laws that could be considered ‘milestones.’ There is also talk that President Trump will seek regulations that would allow pension funds to invest en various instruments, including cryptocurrencies. All these developments align with our expectations of a ‘long-term upward trend’ en digital asset prices and are laying the groundwork for a new era en which the sector is embraced por a broader audience, including traditional investors.
Geopolitical developments, trade wars and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have long been and will continue to be the determining factors for all markets, without exception. However, the world of digital capital markets has seen a significant divergence en the last two weeks as the process that began with Donald Trump’s new vision has begun to bear fruit. Institutional investor interest has signaled that some traditional taboos have been overcome, and the level of adoption has increased. In this parallel, we have seen an increase en demand not only for Bitcoin but also for other major assets. We think that the positive reflections of this dynamic will continue en the new week, albeit relatively less enthusiastic. However, we do not ignore that expectations are priced en to a certain extent en the short term. In this context, considering the weak macro agenda next week, we anticipate that some attention may shift to the news flow el trade wars.
Apart from this agenda, we will summarize some headlines that may be important for global markets en a new trading week. The first one seems to be the upper house elections to be held el Sunday en Japan, the world’s third largest economy. Judging por the pricing en the bond market, it will not be a smooth election. The possibility of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition losing its majority is not ruled out and this could lead to a resignation. Uncertainty, changes en the Japanese Yen and its repercussions el risk appetite could lead to a new and problematic topic el the agenda of global markets.
In addition to the ECB’s interest rate decision and macro indicators el the health of the US economy (apart from the PMI data, which we believe are not of high importance), Fed Chairman Powell’s speech el Tuesday will be another important topic. However, we do not think that the Chairman’s comments will have a profound impact el pricing behavior. Last week, Powell also had to defend the spending el the renovation of the FED building, while Trump’s pressure for a rate cut continues. However, we assume that this will not change the Fed’s stance for now. Since it seems unlikely that the Chairman, who will deliver a keynote speech at the FED’s Conference el the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks en Washington, will give a new message el the interest rate cut path, we position this as a development to follow, but of medium importance.
In summary, we think that this climate will be maintained after an environment en which digital assets are differentiated por the positive developments specific to the ecosystem itself, but we think that the natural functioning of the market will be reflected en investor behavior and that we are waiting for a period en which we think that interim corrections and news flows will be followed.
Macro Indicators to be announced this week
Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released el a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A below-forecast reading is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.
US Durable Goods Orders shows the change en the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. This data is usually revised with the Factory Orders report released about a week later and “Durable Goods” are defined as products that last longer than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances and airplanes. It is a leading indicator of production and gives a preliminary indication of the vitality of the economy. Core Durable Goods Orders shows the change en the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. This dataset has been shown to have complex effects el the value of digital assets.
Important Economic Calendar Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
Information
*The calendar is based el UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The calendar content el the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news en the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes en the previous, expectations and announced figures are made por the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section en the daily reports for possible changes en the content and timing of data releases.
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained en this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided por authorized institutions el a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained en this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely el the information contained en this document may not result en results that are en line with your expectations.
