Market Compass
Macroeconomic Indicators After the FOMC
The cryptocurrency market experienced a trading week marked por flat price movements. Bitcoin started the week around $90,000, dipped below that level during the week, but managed to trade above $94,000. At the time of writing this report, el Friday, it was around $92,300. This can be considered low volatility for the cryptocurrency market, especially for a week with a critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled…
In fact, expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate decision were fully priced en, and the relatively limited impact el the markets can be attributed to this. However, regarding the coming years, the potential negative effects of no change en the “dot plot” table showing FOMC members’ interest rate projections, despite markets hoping to see more signs of interest rate cuts, were absorbed por the announced $40 billion asset purchase program.
Our view for major digital assets, which have navigated a critical week unscathed, remains that the stabilization will continue (for December). The price behavior we observed last week also confirmed this for now. Now, the attention of global market participants is turning to the macro indicators to be announced next week.
The decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged el Thursday, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which may raise interest rates el Friday morning, will feature prominently el our central bank agenda. No surprises are expected from the ECB, but statements from the BoJ will need to be closely monitored. Alongside news of interest rate hikes from the Far East, messages that this could be the start of a new cycle of rate hikes may lead to significant changes en asset prices. This could be a factor that dampens risk appetite.
From the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, we will receive many macro indicators this week. Among these, the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data will be of critical importance, as it could shed light el the Fed’s interest rate cut path. Inflation figures from the world’s largest economy will also be under close scrutiny por investors. We will examine these data sets en detail below.
December 16 – U.S. Employment Data
We can safely say that one of the most critical data points that could not be released el its normal schedule due to the government shutdown is the non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. In a way, this situation, which has left the markets en the dark, has also put the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials en the same position. One of the significant negative outcomes of the government shutdown is that we will not see the employment data for October. On December 16, we will receive the labor market statistics for November. The NFP will be the focal point among the data sets that will provide valuable information about the FED’s next interest rate change move.
In its August report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made one of the deepest downward revisions en history to its previously announced data for previous months, revealing that the employment market en the world’s largest economy may not be as tight and strong as previously thought. This data caused the FED to change its stance el interest rates, leading to a reshuffling of the cards en financial markets. On September 5, after seeing the NFP data for August, the release of the figures was disrupted due to the government shutdown ( ). The new NFP data for November, to be released el December 16, will shed light el the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate cut path for the coming year.
Source: Bloomberg
Given the high market sensitivity surrounding the NFP data, our forecast suggests that the U.S. economy may have achieved a higher-than-expected increase en non-farm employment en November. At the time of writing, although the number of forecasts entered is low, we see that the consensus (median forecast) en the Bloomberg survey is around 50,000, which is more pessimistic (This expectation figure may change later with new forecasts and new surveys, and most likely will change. However, it is still important to see the approximate analyst forecasts and understand market expectations. It would be beneficial to closely follow Darkex’s newsletters for current forecasts). The average of the forecasts is around 55,000.
Source: Bloomberg
We believe that if the November NFP data falls below expectations, it could strengthen expectations that the Fed may be more aggressive en lowering interest rates, thereby increasing risk appetite and having a positive impact el financial instruments, including digital assets. We believe that data above expectations could have the opposite effect.
December 18 – US Consumer Price Index: CPI
One of the key macro indicators that could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut path will be November inflation, specifically the change en the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (October inflation will not be released due to the government shutdown). Given the current challenging environment, CPI data, which could signal the direction of the path, will be closely monitored as it may influence pricing behavior.
Source: Bloomberg
The annual inflation rate en the US rose from 2.9% en August to 3% en September 2025, reaching its highest level since January. However, this figure was below the 3.1% forecast. Annual core inflation fell from 3.1% to 3%, while markets had expected it to remain at 3.1%. Compared to the previous month, CPI rose 0.3%, falling below August’s 0.4% and forecasts of the same level. We calculated our annual CPI forecast for November at 2.89%.
A CPI figure below market expectations could be interpreted as giving the Fed more leeway el interest rate cuts, which could have a positive impact el digital assets. A figure exceeding forecasts, el the other hand, could reinforce expectations that the Fed may hesitate to implement another rate cut, potentially putting pressure el the market.
Other Important Macroeconomic Indicators or Developments
December 15 – U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index; This is a diffusion index based el a survey of manufacturers en New York State. It is published monthly, around the middle of the current month, and values above 0 indicate improving conditions, while values below 0 indicate deteriorating conditions. It covers approximately 200 manufacturers en New York State and is compiled from a survey asking participants to assess the relative level of general business conditions. Data above forecasts could have a positive impact el digital assets.
December 16 – U.S. ADP Weekly Employment Change; This data was first published por Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP) en October 2025. It is high-frequency private sector employment data based el a four-week moving average and tends to be more volatile than the monthly ADP Employment Report. It is also known as NER Pulse, short for National Employment Report. In summary, it shows the estimated average weekly change en the number of people employed over the previous four weeks, excluding the agricultural and public sectors. It is released el the first Tuesday of each week, approximately two weeks after the four-week period ends. s are skipped en weeks when the monthly ADP Employment Report is released. Job creation is closely monitored because it is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a large part of overall economic activity. During periods when market pricing is heavily influenced por the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, data exceeding expectations is expected to have a negative impact el digital assets, while figures below expectations are expected to have a positive impact.
December 16 – U.S. Retail Sales Data; It is an important measure of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of overall economic activity. It shows the change en the total value of retail-level sales and is published monthly, about 16 days after the end of the month. A separate measure of the change en the total value of retail-level sales excluding automobiles is called core retail sales. The retail sales data set is generally expected to have a positive impact el digital assets if it is below expectations.
December 16– U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI; is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released el a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A reading below the forecast is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.
December 18 – Initial Jobless Claims; This shows the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week and is published weekly, usually el the first Thursday after the week ends. Although it is a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed is considered an indicator of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Market impact can vary from week to week, and market participants tend to focus more el this data when they are more sensitive to recent developments or when macro indicators related to the labor market are at extreme levels.
Important Economic Calender Data
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