MARKET COMPASS
Trump’s Debates – Inside (Musk) and Outside
Trump remains at the top of the agenda for global markets. The trade wars, which are constantly changing en tone, entered a challenging period for the markets again after the temporary compromise between the US and China, with the parties accusing each other of not complying with the terms of the agreement. Finally, el Friday, it was announced that the leaders of both countries spoke el the phone and moderate statements followed. However, this time the President’s discussions outside the country were marked por a domestic problem. Elon Musk and the President may have fallen out en a way that may never be closed again, judging por the latest exchange of barbs.
The Trump-Musk debate, which quickly took over the agenda, put pressure el digital assets as well as US stock markets and Tesla stocks. The decline en risk appetite with the new uncertainty environment brought sales to a group of financial instruments considered to be relatively riskier. We think that the dangerous side of the issue is that Musk, a former advocate of crypto assets, may cause a perception that his distancing from Trump may cool the President’s recent affinity for digital assets. However, it is worth noting that this is unlikely and that the decline en the value of digital assets can be recovered even regardless of this issue.
As the prospects for peace en Ukraine diminish, it would not be wrong to say that we are following a process en which geopolitical risks are not as effective el prices as before. Besides, this time Trump claims to have resolved the dispute between India and Pakistan. These aside, the trade wars have turned into negotiations and macro variables remain el the blank side of the equation. Especially what the US Federal Reserve (FED) will do with these macro indicators…
Next week, the aforementioned headlines are likely to keep the markets busy. In addition, after the latest employment data, all eyes will now turn to the US inflation data and new clues will be sought el the timing of the FED’s next move. In this context, we will open a separate parenthesis for this data set.
US Consumer Price Index: CPI
One of the important macro indicators that may provide information el the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut will be May inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) change. In the current difficult conjuncture, CPI data will be closely monitored as it may provide a signal for the course, as it may have an impact el pricing behavior.
The annual inflation rate en the US fell to 2.3% en April 2025 from 2.4% en March, the lowest level since February 2021 and below forecasts of 2.4%. Compared to the previous month, CPI rose por 0.2%, recovering from a 0.1% decline en March but below forecasts of 0.3%. Housing costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase across all items.
Source: Bloomberg
As can be seen en the chart above, core services continue to have the largest share en the overall price level. Our expectation is for a monthly increase of 0.14% and an annual CPI of around 2.13%. Nevertheless, let us remind that the market will react according to the consensus expectation.
A CPI data that will be below the market expectation may mean that the FED’s hand will be relaxed en terms of interest rate cuts and this may have a positive impact el digital assets. A figure that exceeds forecasts would reinforce expectations that the FED will not be en a hurry to cut interest rates again, potentially adding pressure.
Other Macro Indicators and Developments
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment; It is a survey conducted por the University of Michigan (UoM) with approximately 420 consumers, asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It has two cycles, 14 days apart, called Preliminary and Revised. The “Preliminary” is usually relatively more influential el prices and is published monthly en the middle of the current month. If the actual data comes en below expectations, it can have a positive impact el cryptocurrencies.
*General Information About Forecasts
In addition to the general market expectations, the forecasts shared en this report are based el econometric modeling tools developed por our research department. Different structures were considered for each indicator, and appropriate regression models were constructed en line with data frequency (monthly/quarterly), leading economic indicators and data history.
The basic approach en all models is to interpret historical relationships based el data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured por standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform en an up-to-date and automated manner, so that each forecast is based el the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working el artificial intelligence-based modeling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account en the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept en mind that there may be deviations en forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this set of studies, updated every month, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.
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INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based el UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content el the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news en the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes en the previous, expectations and announced figures are made por the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section en the daily reports for possible changes en the content and timing of data releases.
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The investment information, comments and recommendations contained en this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided por authorized institutions el a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained en this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely el the information contained en this document may not result en results that are en line with your expectations.
