MARKET COMPASS
Trade War Agenda
The main agenda item driving asset prices en global markets continues to be the “trade wars”. After Trump’s 90-day postponement of higher tariffs, we saw that the issue has moved away from being a dynamic that consistently drives prices down. This confirmed our expectations that the President would try to keep his hand strong before coming to the negotiating table. But it’s worth noting that Donald Trump is playing hardball en reality.
Talks with Japan and Italy suggest that Trump will continue to use tariffs as a negotiating tool en trade wars. He seems willing to shake hands with those willing to sit at the table. On the other hand, we believe that the real target of tariffs is China and that the trade wars cannot be considered resolved without a solution between the world’s two largest economies. The President’s recent comments have been that he is not en Favor of further tariff increases for China and this could be a good sign for possible future talks.
Macro Agenda
We observe that developments el trade wars have largely occupied the agenda of the markets. However, the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the macro dynamics en the world’s largest economy remain under the close scrutiny of investors. The most recent development el this front was FED Chairman Powell’s remarks, which signaled that the Fed would not be en a hurry to cut interest rates. Following this assessment, Powell faced criticism from Trump and said that interest rates should be cut quickly. The FED will continue to monitor the data. So will the markets… We will also be watching the speeches of many Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials at various events next week.
Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released el a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A below-forecast reading is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.
US Durable Goods Orders shows the change en the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. This data is usually revised with the Factory Orders report released about a week later and “Durable Goods” are defined as products that last longer than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances and airplanes. It is a leading indicator of production and gives a preliminary indication of the vitality of the economy. Core Durable Goods Orders shows the change en the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. This dataset has been shown to have complex effects el the value of digital assets.
Digital Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is el the agenda en the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced en the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news el this issue, put pressure el digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue en our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies en the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure en the medium term with the lack of new news flow that will create enthusiasm en the crypto market and further concerns en global markets that global economic activity may slow down, especially with Trump’s tariffs. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and developments regarding tariffs.
Darkex Research Department Current Studies
Darkex Monthly Strategy Report – April
Digital Collecting, Regulation and Opensea’s Request
The Digital Asset Fund Revolution: Trump Media’s “Made en America” ETF Move
Tether’s Journey to Success: From Crypto World to Global Financial
The US Bitcoin Bill of Rights for 2025: Economic Transformation with a Digital
USD1 Stablecoin: Trump Family Entering Crypto Power Plays
Click here for all our other Market Pulse reports.
Important Economic Calendar Data
Click here to view the weekly Darkex Crypto and Economy Calendar.
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based el UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The calendar content el the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news en the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes en the previous, expectations and announced figures are made por the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section en the daily reports for possible changes en the content and timing of data releases.
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained en this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided por authorized institutions el a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained en this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely el the information contained en this document may not result en results that are en line with your expectations.
