¿Son ilegales los aranceles de Trump?

Market Copass

¿Son ilegales los aranceles de Trump?

• A panel of the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan unanimously ruled that the bulk of Trump’s tariffs were imposed through unfair use of emergency legislation.
• The court gave 10 days to implement the ruling, and the Justice Department has appealed the decision. If the Court of Appeals does not allow Trump to implement the higher tariffs during the pendency of the case, the ruling could permanently block them.
• Nvidia announced its financials yesterday and its predictions for the future were also welcomed positively by the markets.
• The published minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) highlighted the officials’ stance that they would not be in a hurry for another rate cut. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before its Septiembre meeting.
• The optimism generated by the recent news flow in global markets was not fully reciprocated in digital asset prices at first. On the contrary, the global appreciation of the dollar has also put pressure on major cryptocurrencies with a base asset effect.
• Later in the day, comments on the US Court’s recent rulings will be under scrutiny. In addition, US economic growth (GDP) data, speeches by FOMC officials and the ongoing Bitcoin Conference will be closely monitored.
• While we maintain our expectation of limited upside for the short term, we maintain our upside view for the medium and long term as mentioned below.

US GDP Change

Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy choices have been a challenging factor for the entire world in recent months. Economic actors are also facing the challenges of this highly uncertain environment as they formulate their expectations and plans for the future. This situation has some implications. The most important one is the possibility of a slowdown in economic activity. In this respect, it will be very important to see how much the US economy grew in the first quarter of the year, including the period after Enero 20, when Trump took over in the Oval Office. According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces this statistic, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a consequence of Trump’s unpredictable policies. It was the first decline since the first quarter of 2022.

It seems that businesses and consumers turned to stockpiling in preparation for rising costs, which contributed to the slowdown, with imports rising by 41.3%. Consumer spending also slowed to 1.8%, its lowest level since the second quarter of 2023. Federal government spending fell 5.1%, the sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

Fuente: Bloomberg

The new data will be the second estimate for the same period, and we will watch to see if there will be a revision. It is still difficult to quantify and measure the impact of Trump’s decisions on consumer behavior. The data will allow for healthier and longer-term projections on the direction of economic growth.

In terms of immediate market reaction, we think that a data above the consensus expectation may increase risk appetite and have a positive impact on digital assets. A lower-than-expected GDP data may have a negative impact from this point of view.

Brújula digital

In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, we have already seen that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and that the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Taking into account the latest developments on a global scale, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.

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INFORMACIÓN

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AVISO LEGAL

La información sobre inversiones, los comentarios y las recomendaciones que figuran en este documento no constituyen servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversiones. Los servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversión son prestados por instituciones autorizadas con carácter personal, teniendo en cuenta las preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad de los particulares. Los comentarios y recomendaciones contenidos en este documento son de tipo general. Estas recomendaciones pueden no ser adecuadas para su situación financiera y sus preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad. Por lo tanto, tomar una decisión de inversión basándose únicamente en la información contenida en este documento puede no dar lugar a resultados acordes con sus expectativas.