BRÚJULA DE MERCADO
FOMC Day Arrives in the Markets
- Global markets have turned their attention to the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will conclude today, and what Chairman Powell will say. The FED is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the messages regarding the interest rate cut course may have an impact on asset prices.
- There are new developments on trade wars and China and the US officials are expected to start talks on tariffs this weekend in Switzerland. It was announced that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week. The Chinese side also confirmed that Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Hı Lifıng will meet with US officials.
- Wall Street futures are on the positive side with positive developments on tariffs. European stock markets are far from pricing in this optimism ahead of the FED for the time being, but digital assets gained value.
- News flow regarding the strategic crypto asset reserve and expectations that institutional investor interest will remain buoyant have contributed to the recent rises.
- The results of the FOMC meeting will be decisive in the rest of the day. Afterwards, we may see that expectations regarding tariffs are priced in. For the short term, we maintain our view that the uptrend may continue with intermediate corrections, and we do not change our medium and long term forecast as mentioned under the “Digital Compass” heading below.
FOMC Meeting
The third meeting of the year of the US Federal Reserve (FED), whose independence was questioned, albeit briefly, by Donald Trump’s statements, started yesterday (Mayo 6-7). Although Trump later stated that he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, he continued to call for interest rate cuts. Markets do not expect a rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today. However, possible clues on when the next rate cut may be made have the potential to be a determining variable for the direction of the markets in the short term. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that all financial markets will closely monitor the FOMC decisions today.
The Fed’s current policy rate is in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and no change is expected at the next meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, at the time of writing, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Junio 17-18, which ends on Julio 30, is priced at around 55%. Following the latest pricing, three rate cuts of 25 bps each are expected by the end of the year.
Today the FOMC will not update its dot plot and economic expectations. Therefore, the markets will focus more on whether there is a change in the interest rate and what is the forward guidance on this issue. We believe that the FED will leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. However, it is worth noting that if there is a surprise rate cut, this could have a positive impact on digital assets. If, as widely expected, the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, markets will quickly look at the Bank’s decision text, which may provide information on the path of the rate cut. Statements on employment and inflation will be important at this point.
Si la Fed envía el mensaje de que es probable un recorte de tipos en la próxima reunión, podríamos ver una revalorización de los instrumentos financieros considerados relativamente arriesgados. Sin embargo, si hay mensajes contundentes de que no habrá prisa por otro recorte de tipos, como mencionaron el presidente de la entidad, Powell, y algunos otros miembros del FOMC en sus recientes declaraciones, no sería erróneo afirmar que esto podría ejercer presión sobre los instrumentos, incluidos los activos digitales.
Media hora después de la decisión, la atención se centrará en la conferencia de prensa de Powell. Los posibles efectos de las guerras comerciales en la economía estadounidense, la independencia de la FED y la evolución económica serán algunos de los temas que se seguirán con atención durante la sesión de preguntas y respuestas. Sin embargo, podemos decir que la cuestión crucial será el momento en que la FED realice su próximo movimiento de recorte de tipos de interés en medio de toda esta dinámica. Las pistas de Powell pueden ser una dinámica decisiva para la dirección de los precios a corto plazo.
Brújula digital
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, there will not be a development that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually decrease. Accordingly, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish outlook. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
Para una revisión detallada de nuestro informe de análisis técnico dos veces al día y los últimos acontecimientos en activos digitales haga clic aquí.
Lo más destacado del día
Datos importantes del calendario económico
| Tiempo | Noticias | Expectativa | Anterior |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Stellar (XLM) SDF Q1 en Revisión | - | - |
| - | Pendle (PENDLE) Pendle Yield Talk | - | - |
| - | BNB (BNB) Programa Binance Seeds AMA | - | - |
| - | Anuncios de ZKsync (ZK) | - | - |
| 18:00 | Declaración del FOMC estadounidense | - | - |
| 18:00 | Decisión de la FED sobre los tipos de interés | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 18:30 | Conferencia de prensa del FOMC estadounidense | - | - |
INFORMACIÓN
*El calendario se basa en el huso horario UTC (Tiempo Universal Coordinado).
El contenido del calendario económico de la página correspondiente se obtiene de proveedores de noticias y datos fiables. Las noticias del contenido del calendario económico, la fecha y hora del anuncio de la noticia, los posibles cambios en las cifras anteriores, las expectativas y las cifras anunciadas son realizadas por las instituciones proveedoras de datos. Darkex no se hace responsable de los posibles cambios que puedan surgir de situaciones similares.
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Haga clic aquí para consultar el resto de nuestros informes Market Pulse.
Aviso legal
La información sobre inversiones, los comentarios y las recomendaciones que figuran en este documento no constituyen servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversiones. Los servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversión son prestados por instituciones autorizadas con carácter personal, teniendo en cuenta las preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad de los particulares. Los comentarios y recomendaciones contenidos en este documento son de tipo general. Estas recomendaciones pueden no ser adecuadas para su situación financiera y sus preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad. Por lo tanto, tomar una decisión de inversión basándose únicamente en la información contenida en este documento puede no dar lugar a resultados acordes con sus expectativas.