Geopolitical Shifts, Fed Signals, Crypto’s Strategic Rise

Brújula de mercado

Geopolitical Agenda and New Pricing

• Wall Street indices, which took a break from their six-day rise yesterday, are still on the agenda regarding the US debt problem. President Trump’s desire for tax cuts and the fact that the trade uncertainty was not completely over caused long-term bond yields to rise. Finally, IMF President Gopinath also warned the US that the fiscal deficit was too high.
• The ongoing G7 Summit in Canada is being closely monitored as there may be statements on trade wars. US Treasury Secretary Bessent is meeting with many names within the scope of these meetings and it is expected that evaluations can be made on both the value of the dollar and tariffs.
• Expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will continue to adopt a “wait-and-see” stance before announcing another rate cut are also strengthening with the statements of FED officials. It is priced in that the Bank will only cut interest rates twice this year.
• In addition to the trade war agenda and macro variables, the news that Israel is preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities has once again focused attention on the geopolitical risks front. Peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have so far yielded no concrete results.
• In the world of digital assets, we think it is significant that the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act by a vote of 66-32. The legislation would mandate that stablecoins be fully backed by US dollars or similar highly liquid assets and require annual audits for issuers with a market capitalization exceeding $50 billion. Crypto leaders and lawmakers are hailing the vote as a “historic” victory that could help “ensure the dominance of the US dollar.”
• We find Bitcoin’s convergence to historical highs noteworthy, as global risks and investors have shifted to a “defensive position” after the positive sentiment in the last week. Therefore, emphasizing our concerns that downside risks are alive for the short-term outlook in recent days, we state that the direction is up, and we maintain our bullish expectation in the medium and long term.
• In the rest of the day, the lack of catalyst may affect prices as a short-term intermediate pressure factor, but we think that the rise may be prone to rise with the “adoption” effect specific to the crypto ecosystem. The statements of FED officials may continue to be decisive in this regard.

Brújula digital

In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, we have already seen that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and that the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Taking into account the recent developments on a global scale, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.

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Highlights of the day

Datos importantes del calendario económico

INFORMACIÓN

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