Informe mensual de análisis del cripto mercado

¿Qué nos espera?

FED Chair Powell’s Speech – Junio 2

In the speech, which is critical for the direction of the markets, Powell’s messages on interest rate policy, the fight against inflation and the economic outlook will be closely monitored.

USA Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – Junio 6

This data, which shows the strength of the US economy in the labor market, may be decisive on the FED’s monetary policy decisions.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Junio 11

Changes in consumer prices will shape markets’ inflation expectations and provide clues about the interest rate path.

Fed Rate Decision Meeting (FOMC) – Junio 18

FED’s interest rate decision will be announced. In addition, the text of the decision and Powell’s press conference may reshape market expectations.

Final GDP – Junio 26

The growth rate of the US economy will be revised. Revisions are important data for investor sentiment.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Junio 27

PCE data, which is closely monitored by the FED as an inflation indicator, will carry an important signal about the direction of monetary policy.

Developments to Follow in the Crypto Market

US SEC to Hold Panel Discussion on “DeFi and the American Spirit” – Junio 9

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced plans to create new and clear regulations for crypto assets. These regulations aim to clarify the classification of crypto tokens as securities and promote legal issuance, custody and trading processes.

US GENIUS Act – Junio

The US Senate approved the GENIUS Act, which provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, by a vote of 66-32. The bill is currently under consideration in the House of Representatives and is expected to become law in Junio.

US Banks’ Joint Stablecoin Plan – Junio

Giant banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo have started preliminary talks to develop  a joint stablecoin. This digital currency, which will be pegged one-to-one to the US dollar, aims to make interbank payments faster and cheaper.  Concrete steps in this direction will be followed in Junio.

Criptointeligencia

*Prepared on 29.05.2025 at 10:20 am. (UTC)

Metrics – Summarize of the Mayo

Flujo por activo

In Mayo, inflows into digital assets gained a much stronger momentum compared to Abril. While uninterrupted capital inflows were observed on a weekly basis throughout the month, Bitcoin again had the largest share in this process. Bitcoin, which attracted attention with a total inflow of $ 6.24 billion, was followed by Ethereum with a capital inflow of $ 681.5 million. SUI draws attention with its capital inflows on its way to becoming a major cryptocurrency.

Capitalización bursátil total

The total value of the cryptocurrency market started Mayo at $2.91 trillion. After surpassing the $3 trillion threshold with the rise seen in the first half of the month, on Mayo 23, the market capitalization surpassed the highest level since Febrero and advanced to $3.5 trillion. Throughout Mayo, the total market cap rose by 15.77%, which corresponds to a total appreciation of $456 billion.

US Spot ETF Data

Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $6.21 billion as of the end of Mayo. Although negative flows were recorded on some days in the first half of the month, heavy institutional purchases between Mayo 16-23 accounted for the bulk of total inflows. In particular, the record inflow of $934.8 million on Mayo 22 signaled a rebuilding of market confidence. During this period, the Bitcoin price rose 14.45% from $94,125 to $107,723.

Spot Ethereum ETFs saw strong net inflows totaling $402.1 million by the end of Mayo. Although there were serious outflows on some days in the first half of the month, a noticeable increase in institutional demand started on Mayo 14.

In particular, the highest inflows of the month were recorded on Mayo 22 and 28, with $110.5 million and $84.9 million, respectively. During this period, the Ethereum price reached $2,680, up 49.55% from $1,792.

Datos de opciones

Tomorrow, the last week of this month in the Bitcoin options market, $10.03 billion worth of BTC contracts will expire, totaling $20.56 billion. Call options were concentrated in the band of 110,000 – 120,000 dollars with a total of 497.45 thousand expiry transactions, while Put options were in the range of 95,000 – 100,000 dollars with 361.91 thousand expiry transactions. Put/call ratio was 0.97 and the maximum pain point will be realized at an average of $97,000.

In Ethereum options, ETH contracts worth $ 1.67 billion will expire on Mayo 30. While the number of call options totaled 335 thousand units, there is a density of over 110 thousand units in the $ 2,800 – 3,200 band. Put options will be realized in a total of 278 thousand units. The density here is in the range of 1,900 – 2,400 dollars. The put/call ratio is 0.82 and the maximum pain point will be realized at an average of $ 2,300.

Crypto Side – Expectations of the Junio

Bitcoin Outperformed Expectations in Mayo

Bitcoin, which entered Mayo at the level of $95,000 after the rise in Abril, experienced a short consolidation period in the first week of the month, but then resumed its upward trend. Especially by the middle of the month, six-digit price levels, a psychologically important threshold, were exceeded. With the positive developments on the fundamental side, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,960 towards the end of the month. In previous years, the markets have been cautiously optimistic in Mayo. This year, however, Bitcoin is poised to end the month in positive territory with an impressive 14.26% rise.

Junio: Uncertainties and Historical Trends

The data for Junio paints a more complex picture. Statistics for the last five years show that this is usually a month characterized by declines. In particular, the average rate of return during this period is calculated as minus 8.27%, while older data from before 2020 points to an average rise of 5.85%. This suggests that Junio was far from a clear direction for Bitcoin, but rather a period sensitive to market cycles and fundamental developments. In this context, the macroeconomic data from the US, the SEC’s regulatory steps and the course of trade tariffs between the US and the European Union will be critical determinants of the direction of the markets.

*Prepared on 29.05.2025 at 10:20 am. (UTC)

Fuente: Departamento de Investigación de Darkex

US SEC to Organize Panel on “DeFi and the American Spirit“

The event will address the potential of decentralized finance (DeFi), how it can grow in a regulated manner, and how the legal framework in the US can be shaped. Hester M. Peirce, Commissioner and Chair of the Crypto Task Force, said in a statement: “DeFi is a space that reflects the promise of crypto; it allows for interaction without the need for intermediaries. I look forward to hearing from the panelists about what can be done to create a regulatory environment in which DeFi can thrive.”

US GENIUS Act 

The US Senate has taken up an important bill aimed at regulating the stablecoin sector. The ” Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins” (GENIUS) Act , passed preliminary approval in the Senate on Mayo 20 by a vote of 66 to 32 and will now be debated in the Senate plenary ahead of a full vote. This legislation aims to introduce clear rules on the collateralization of stablecoins while mandating compliance with anti-money laundering laws. The GENIUS Act could become a benchmark in stablecoin regulation not only for the US but for the entire world. How the details of the bill take shape and are implemented in Junio will be one of the critical factors that will determine the future of the market.

US Banks’ Joint Stablecoin Plan

Some of the largest US banks are exploring whether to come together to issue a joint stablecoin, The Wall Street Journal reported. The report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the talks so far include companies co-owned by JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and other major commercial banks. The shape the market will take with the steps to be taken in this direction in Junio will be carefully monitored.

Pulso del mercado

Trade Wars Continue

While we have witnessed some positive progress in recent weeks, as we have noted before, the “trade wars” are unlikely to disappear from our agenda anytime soon. Aside from some US court rulings, the fact that the US and China have accused each other of not fully complying with the terms of the tentative agreement after the US-China deal has been reached supports this view.

Positive developments on the digital asset side, such as the stablecoin law, have recently paved the way for renewed value gains. We also see the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act as an important step towards the adoption of digital assets. However, the complexity of global developments and a climate where it is difficult to foresee neither digital reserves nor stablecoins are likely to come first. For the markets, which are preparing to leave half of the year behind in Junio, the progress on trade wars and the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut course (expectations that may change), which will determine the tightness of the global financial ecosystem, seem to play an important role. In this context, we will open brackets for the relevant headlines, especially from this perspective.

Junio 2 – FED Chair Powell’s Speech

On the first trading day of the month for traditional markets, markets will focus on the remarks of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Chairman will deliver a keynote speech at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors International Finance Department’s 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington DC.

We do not expect Powell to give a clear clue about the timing of the Fed’s next interest rate change. Nevertheless, Powell’s messages will be important and may determine the direction of asset prices ahead of the Mayo labor market statistics to be released on Junio 6. For now, the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before Septiembre. Any assessment that may change this expectation should be closely monitored. We do not anticipate a change in Powell’s stance after his meeting with Donald Trump and expect him to maintain his data-driven, patient stance.

No obstante, hay que subrayar que si Powell transmite el mensaje de que el momento de la bajada de los tipos de interés podría percibirse más cerca de septiembre, esto podría tener un reflejo positivo en el valor de los activos digitales, y en el caso contrario, podría tener un reflejo negativo. Podemos decir que vemos el discurso del Presidente de la FED como un desarrollo más neutral esta vez antes de los datos críticos.

Junio 6 – US Employment Data

There is one month left to leave the first half of the year behind and on Junio 6, we will be receiving the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for Mayo, which will provide clues about the tightness of the financial ecosystem in the coming period, which will provide information about the interest rate cut course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). In addition to this, Marzo figures such as average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate will also be monitored.

In Abril, the US economy added 177K jobs (Market Expectation: 138K).

Fuente: Bloomberg

Our forecast for the NFP data, which is highly sensitive to the market, is that we will see that the US economy added 189 thousand new jobs in the non-farm sectors in Mayo, which is higher than the general forecasts. At the time of writing, although the number of forecasts entered is small, we see that the consensus on the Bloomberg terminal is more pessimistic, around 130K.

Fuente: Bloomberg

Once again, we believe that if the Mayo NFP data, which will be published in the shadow of the deterioration that Trump’s tariff-centered foreign policy may create domestically, is slightly below expectations, this will be priced as a metric that may create an expectation that the FED may act more boldly to lower the interest rate, thus increasing risk appetite and having a positive impact on financial instruments, including digital assets. We think that a slightly higher-than-expected data may have a similar but opposite effect. However, a much lower than expected NFP data could reignite concerns about stagflation with a commentary on the health of the US economy, which could put selling pressure on assets considered to be risky. It should be noted here that we also expect a much better-than-anticipated reading to have a positive impact. It is worth noting that we anticipate these effects by taking into account the current state of market sentiment.

Junio 11 – US Consumer Price Index: CPI

One of the important macro indicators that may provide information on the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut will be the Mayo inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI) change. In the difficult conjuncture we are in, CPI data, which may give a signal for the course, will be closely monitored as it may have an impact on pricing behavior.

The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.3% in Abril 2025 from 2.4% in Marzo, the lowest level since Febrero 2021 and below forecasts of 2.4%. Compared to the previous month, CPI rose by 0.2%, recovering from a 0.1% decline in Marzo but below forecasts of 0.3%. Housing costs rose 0.3%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase across all items.

Fuente: Bloomberg

As can be seen in the chart above, core services continue to have the largest share in the overall price level. Our expectation is for a monthly increase of 0.14% and an annual CPI of around 2.13%. Nevertheless, the market will react according to the consensus expectation.

Una lectura del IPC por debajo de lo previsto podría significar que la FED estará en mejores condiciones para recortar los tipos de interés, lo que podría tener un impacto positivo en los activos digitales. Una cifra que supere las previsiones, por otro lado, tiene el potencial de ejercer presión al reforzar las expectativas de que la FED no se precipitará en otro recorte de tipos.

18 de junio - Reunión del FOMC

La cuarta reunión del año del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) de la Reserva Federal estadounidense (FED) se celebrará los días 17 y 18 de junio y las decisiones se anunciarán el 18 de junio. No se espera que la FED modifique su política de tipos de interés. De hecho, según la herramienta FedWatch de CME, no se espera que el Banco decida una bajada de tipos antes de septiembre. Sin embargo, lo que hace que la reunión de junio sea importante es que podemos obtener pistas sobre el calendario de la bajada de tipos.

Fuente: Bloomberg

El 18 de junio, los mercados buscarán pistas que puedan dar lugar a un cambio importante en las expectativas. Lo primero que habrá que buscar es si el tipo de interés se mantiene sin cambios, como se esperaba. Al mismo tiempo, se examinarán con lupa las previsiones de los miembros del FOMC sobre los tipos de interés, es decir, el gráfico de "puntos" y el gráfico de proyecciones, que muestra sus predicciones sobre los indicadores económicos. Media hora después de la publicación de estas decisiones y documentos, el presidente de la FED, Powell, se pondrá detrás del atril y ofrecerá una rueda de prensa.

• 1Will interest rates change?

Como hemos mencionado, no esperamos un recorte de tipos por parte del Comité tras los últimos acontecimientos y las declaraciones de los miembros del FOMC. Podría haber una decisión sorpresa de recortar los tipos de interés, lo que vemos como una probabilidad muy baja. Calificamos de improbable una subida de tipos.

• What will the “Dot Plot” Table tell us?

The FOMC meets eight times a year, every six weeks, and in four of these meetings, it publishes the so-called “dot plot” table and the members’ projections of their forecasts for the economy. In this respect, the Marzo meeting will be one of the most important meetings where these documents are published.

Fuente: Bloomberg

The table above, which was last released at the Marzo meeting, shows each FOMC member’s forecasts for the policy interest rate. The FED’s current policy rate is set at a range of 4.25-4.50. We observe that the majority of the members think that this rate will be lowered to 3.75-4.00 by the end of 2025. This implies a total of 50 basis points of rate cuts during the year, whereas the FED usually changes interest rates in steps of 25 basis points each. This means that we could see rate cuts at two of the four meetings in the rest of the year (assuming no rate cut at the Junio meeting). The potential changes we will see in the upcoming dot plot may cause market expectations to be reshaped and we may see significant price changes.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the pricing in the markets is not very different from the expectations of the FOMC members. In other words, we can say that a 50 basis point cut until the end of the year is reflected in prices. Therefore, if we do not see a change in the picture, we will not consider this as an important dynamic that will create price changes. However, if the rate cut forecasts point to only a 25 basis point cut, this could be interpreted as a sign that global financial tightness will remain at these levels for a longer period than previously anticipated, which could cause the dollar to appreciate, risk appetite to decline, and stock markets and digital currencies to depreciate.

3-Proyecciones económicas

Along with the “dot plot”, another important and potentially influential piece of information that will be published in the same document will be the FOMC’s projections reflecting its expectations for the economy. Of course, every detail is important, but in terms of short-term pricing, we will carefully examine the data in the last table published on Marzo 19 for the year 2025.

Esta tabla incluye datos sobre la variación del PIB real (que puede definirse como crecimiento económico), la tasa de desempleo, la inflación PCE y el PCE subyacente.

Source: Federal Reserve

Finally, among these macro indicators, we prefer to analyze the possible projection changes for GDP and core PCE data, which were announced at the Marzo meeting. A moderate upward revision of growth may have a positive impact on the markets (we see this as unlikely ). A downward revision may have a negative impact on risk sentiment. On the other hand, an upward revision in core PCE may strengthen the perception that the FED will not be too eager to cut interest rates, which may negatively affect risk appetite. A potential downward revision in this data may have a positive impact on instruments considered to be relatively risky, including digital assets.

• Powell’s Press Conference

On Junio 18, FED Chairman Jerome H. Powell will speak at a press conference, as he does after every FOMC meeting, half an hour after the decisions are published. Powell will first read the text of the decision and explain the reasons for the decisions taken. Then there will be a question-and-answer session where press members’ questions will be answered. Volatility in the markets may increase a little more in this part.

Of course, the interest rate decision, the dot plot and the projections may change the significance of the Chairman’s Q&A. We do not expect a major change in the stance Powell has taken in recent speeches. Last time, the chairman argued that the break in the rate cut cycle was justified and that their decisions would not be affected by the consequences of the fiscal policies implemented by the new US administration. In short, he set a relatively moderate, hawkish tone. He also maintained his stance that they needed more data to get a clearer picture of the impact of the tariffs.

In the face of questions from the press, Powell’s more hawkish stance than before may reinforce expectations and pricing that the FED will not rush to restart interest rate cuts. This may have a negative impact on digital assets.   However, the fact that he talked about the necessity of a new interest rate cut with evaluations regarding both economic growth and the labor market, and that he also gave messages that more than 50 basis points could be cut by the end of the year may increase the risk appetite and this may have positive effects on cryptocurrencies.

Junio 26- US GDP Change

Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy choices continue to be a challenging factor for the entire world. Economic actors are also facing the challenges of this highly uncertain environment as they formulate their expectations and plans for the future. There are some outcomes of this situation. The most important one is the slowdown in economic activity… In this respect, it will be important to see how much the US economy grew in the first quarter of the year, including the period after Enero 20, when Trunp took over in the Oval Office. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate (first estimate -0.3%), the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting Trump’s unpredictable policies. This was the first decline since the first quarter of 2022.

It seems that businesses and consumers turned to stockpiling in preparation for rising costs, which contributed to the slowdown, with imports rising by 42.6%. Consumer spending growth also slowed to 1.2%, the lowest since the second quarter of 2023. Federal government spending fell 4.6%, the sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

Fuente: Bloomberg

The new data will be the last forecast for the same period, and we will watch to see if there will be a revision. It is still difficult to quantify and measure the impact of Trump’s effects on consumer behavior. The data will allow for healthier and longer-term projections on the direction of economic growth.

En términos de reacción inmediata del mercado, pensamos que un dato por encima de las expectativas de consenso puede tener un impacto positivo en los activos digitales al aumentar el apetito por el riesgo. En cambio, un dato del PIB por debajo de lo esperado puede tener un impacto negativo desde esta perspectiva.

Junio 27 – FED’s Favourite Inflation Indicator PCE

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Junio, markets will be watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for Mayo closely for clues as to which of the following meetings will decide on a rate cut. This indicator is known as the preferred gauge for FOMC officials to monitor changes in inflation.

Fuente: Bloomberg

According to the latest data, core PCE increased by 0.1% in Abril compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, core PCE rose by 2.5%. Thus, the index continued to decline for the second month after the 2.9% figure in Febrero. We can say that we felt the Trump effect in this data as well. Our expectation is for an increase of around 0.25% in core PCE data in Mayo.

Source: Darkex Research

Un dato por encima de lo esperado podría respaldar las expectativas de que la FED mantenga su postura cautelosa sobre los recortes de los tipos de interés, lo que reduciría el apetito por el riesgo y presionaría a los activos digitales. Un dato por debajo de lo esperado puede tener el efecto contrario y allanar el camino para las ganancias de valor.

*General Information About Forecasts

Además de las expectativas generales del mercado, las previsiones compartidas en este informe se basan en herramientas de modelización econométrica desarrolladas por nuestro departamento de investigación. Se consideraron diferentes estructuras para cada indicador y se construyeron modelos de regresión adecuados en función de la frecuencia de los datos (mensual/trimestral), los principales indicadores económicos y el historial de datos.

The basic approach in all models is to interpret historical relationships based on data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform in an up-to-date and automated manner, so that every forecast is based on the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working on artificial intelligence-based modeling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) in order to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account in the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept in mind that there may be deviations in forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this monthly updated working set, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.

Aviso legal

La información sobre inversiones, los comentarios y las recomendaciones que figuran en este documento no constituyen servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversiones. Los servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversión son prestados por instituciones autorizadas con carácter personal, teniendo en cuenta las preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad de los particulares. Los comentarios y recomendaciones contenidos en este documento son de tipo general. Estas recomendaciones pueden no ser adecuadas para su situación financiera y sus preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad. Por lo tanto, tomar una decisión de inversión basándose únicamente en la información contenida en este documento puede no dar lugar a resultados acordes con sus expectativas.