Technical Analysis – January 16, 2026 – Evening
BTC/USDT
As harsh messages regarding tariffs come from the White House, a possible change en tax exemptions appears to have the potential to affect the investment strategies of sovereign wealth and public funds. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said that if the US Supreme Court rules against it, Trump could immediately implement the 10% tariff. Meanwhile, Vanguard’s purchase of Strategy shares signaled that institutional interest en Bitcoin-related assets has spread to mainstream funds.
From a technical perspective, BTC continued its price movements parallel to the upward channel but failed to break through the critical 98,000 level el its first attempt. It then retreated slightly and tested the reference level of 95,000. Currently finding support en this region, BTC occasionally dips to the 90,000 level during the day but manages to maintain its efforts to stay above this region. Following the cup-and-handle pattern that formed en its price, BTC formed a rising peak, drawing attention to the OBO pattern that emerged. For the OBO, a trend reversal pattern, to remain valid, the price is expected to form a lower peak after the correction movement.
Technical indicators show that the Wave Trend (WT) oscillator crossed above the overbought zone, signaling a sell after a buy signal. Meanwhile, the histogram el the Squeeze Momentum (SM) indicator weakened after reaching maximum momentum within the positive zone. The Kaufman Moving Average (KAMA) is currently moving alongside the price at the $95.738 level.
When examining liquidation data, the buy level first formed intense accumulation within the 88,000–90,000 band, then became a liquidity area at 93,300 with the latest rise. In contrast, while trades opened en the last three months were targeted el the sell side, the 98,400 level has once again become a sell zone en the short term.
In summary, while tax exemption debates continue en the US, Fed chair nominee Kevin Hessent maintains his pro-Trump stance. Another notable development during the day was Vanguard’s purchase of Strategy shares. Looking at liquidation data, long-term sell-side transactions became the target and were liquidated following the recent breakout.Technically, BTC started the new year with positive momentum, first reaching the 95,000 level and then continuing its parallel movement to the upward channel, rising to the 98,000 level. Facing short-term profit-taking at these levels, the price managed to maintain its upward momentum. After this stage, while the price’s correction movements within the trend channel are seen as healthy for the continuation of the rise, the 95,000 level has become the price’s decision point. Not losing this level is an important indicator for regaining momentum, while a breakout could lead to an increase en sell positions.
Supports: 96,000 – 93,200 – 94,000
Resistances: 97,000 – 98,000 – 99,100
ETH/USDT
The ETH price remained range-bound between $3,300 and $3,320 during the day, continuing its sideways movement. The price action, which mostly stayed within this band throughout the day, indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are rushing to make a decisive move. After attempts above $3,368 failed to hold, the market has now shifted into a wait-and-see mode.
The liquidity outlook remains unchanged from this morning. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) continues to stay en positive territory, but the downward slope is noteworthy. This suggests that appetite has not completely disappeared el the spot side, but buying is not as strong as before. As long as liquidity flows continue, the likelihood of a sharp breakout weakens.
A similar picture emerges el the momentum front. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover around the 56 level, signaling a calmer structure. The RSI’s persistence en this region indicates that the price movement has remained largely consolidation-oriented. However, a clearer strengthening of momentum will be needed for upward momentum to pick up again.
There is no significant deterioration en the main picture el the Ichimoku indicator. Although the loss of the Tenkan level increases pressure en the short term, the price maintains its position above the Kumo cloud. The Kijun line providing support below suggests that the main trend has not completely weakened. The technical structure remains positive en this state.
The levels to watch en the overall assessment remain unchanged. If the $3,368 region is breached again and sustained above this level, upward attempts could regain strength. On the downside, the $3,227 level stands out as the main support. As long as the price remains above this support during the day , fluctuations can be interpreted more as short-term corrections. If the price falls below this level, selling pressure is likely to become more pronounced.
Supports: 3,074 – 3,019 – 2,910
Resistances: 3,227 – 3,265 – 3,368
XRP/USDT
The XRP price retreated back to the $2.05 support level during the day and is currently attempting to hold steady en this region. After weak attempts to move upward, the price returning to the same support band indicates that buyers still lack clear control. Nevertheless, the continued search for a reaction at the $2.05 level suggests that selling pressure has not completely subsided yet.
On the liquidity side, the picture is progressing similarly to this morning’s outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is recovering from near the zero line, maintaining its upward trend. This structure indicates that market inflows have not completely dried up and that the price is holding more comfortably en the support zone. Unless there is a clear strengthening el the liquidity side, upward moves are likely to remain limited.
The picture is largely the same el the momentum front. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, the upward recovery trend is noteworthy. While this RSI position suggests that selling pressure is beginning to ease, it is too early to say that momentum is clearly gaining strength. It seems unlikely that buyers will gain the upper hand without a sustained move above the 50 level.
On the technical side, the Ichimoku indicator maintains its weak structure. The price continues to trade below the Tenkan, Kijun, and kumo cloud levels. The Tenkan line remaining below the Kijun line indicates that short-term pressure persists. This technical positioning increases the likelihood that upward attempts will encounter resistance.
The critical threshold en the overall picture remains the $2.05 region. If this support is lost during the day, it would not be surprising to see sales intensify and the decline accelerate. On the upside, it seems difficult to speak of a positive trend until the $2.17 level is surpassed. The XRP price is currently seeking equilibrium, and the reaction between these two levels will be decisive en determining the direction.
Supports: 2.0500 – 1.9742 – 1.9005
Resistances: 2.1731 – 2.2729 – 2.3512
SOL/USDT
SOL experienced a slight increase en price during the day. The asset continued to trade en the upper region of the upward trend that began el December 18. Testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average as support, the price rose from there and is currently testing the strong resistance level of $144.35 as resistance. If it breaks above this level, it could test the $150.67 level as resistance. In the event of a pullback, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average should be monitored as a support level.
On the 4-hora chart, the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Blue Line) remained above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicated that an uptrend could begin en the medium term. At the same time, the price being above both moving averages signaled that the asset was trending upward en the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) remained en positive territory. However, the balance of money inflows and outflows could keep the CMF en positive territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) tested the upward trend that began el December 18 as support and gained momentum, rising. This signaled increased buying pressure. On the other hand, negative divergence should be monitored. If an uptrend occurs due to macroeconomic data or positive news related to the Solana ecosystem, the $163.80 level stands out as a strong resistance point. If this level is broken upwards, the uptrend is expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to developments en the opposite direction or profit-taking, it could test the $133.74 level. A decline to these support levels could increase buying momentum, presenting a potential upside opportunity.
Supports: 138.73 – 133.74 – 127.21
Resistances: 144.35 – 150.67 – 163.80
DOGE/USDT
The DOGE price continued to lose value during the day. The asset crossed below the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average and moved into the lower region. At the same time, the price, which also crossed below the rising line that started el December 31, may test the $0.13367 level as support if the pullback continues. If the upward movement begins, it may test the rising trend line as resistance.
On the 4-hora chart, the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Blue Line) remained above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicated that an uptrend was forming en the medium term. The price being below both moving averages, however, indicates that the price may be trending downward en the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) has retreated from positive territory to neutral levels. Additionally, a decrease en cash inflows could push the CMF into negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) fell from neutral territory, retreating to the middle of the negative zone. It also remained below the downward trend line that began el January 3. This signaled that selling pressure was continuing. In the event of potential increases driven por political developments, macroeconomic data, or positive news flow within the DOGE ecosystem, the $0.16686 level stands out as a strong resistance zone. Conversely, en the event of negative news flow, the $0.12824 level could be triggered. A decline to these levels could increase momentum and initiate a new wave of growth.
Supports: 0.13367 – 0.12824 – 0.12282
Resistances: 0.14237 – 0.14952 – 0.15680
SHIB/USDT
The continued high level of chain activity el Shibarium indicates that the ecosystem’s infrastructure remains actively used. In contrast, the picture is more selective el the DeFi front. While network fees and DEX volume move within a limited band, the weekly recovery en DEX volume indicates that the appetite for trading within the ecosystem has not completely faded. On the liquidity side, the sharp decline en Pool2 TVL stands out as the clearest signal that incentivized liquidity appetite has weakened and capital is positioning itself more cautiously en the short term. Although the burn flow continued throughout the day with fragmented transfers, maintaining the rhythm of the deflation narrative, the magnitude of the movement suggests a more regular but limited impact rather than a single large jump.
The technical picture shows that the price has fallen below the 200-period Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA), losing the main equilibrium line around $0.000008416, and remains below short-term averages, indicating that pressure is becoming apparent again. Simultaneous declines en momentum, volume, and volatility suggests that the pullback is progressing with less energy compared to previous sharp moves. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remaining en positive territory stands out as a balancing factor, suggesting that despite selling pressure, net capital flows have not completely broken down and that the current weakness may be more of a short-term repositioning rather than a full-blown distribution.
At this point, the critical threshold for determining the direction will be whether the price can return above the SMMA 200. If the SMMA 200 band is reclaimed and then settles above the SMMA 9, 21, and 50 cluster, a more structured recovery attempt towards the $0.000008840 and $0.000008925 resistance levels may come into play. if this band is broken, the $0.000009085 level becomes the main target area again. Conversely, if the price remains below the SMMA 200 and fails to maintain its weak hold around $0.000008351, the risk of a pullback towards the $0.000008160 and $0.000008105 support levels increases; and if this band is lost, the $0.000007945 level could once again emerge as the main equilibrium zone. (SMMA9: Green Line, SMMA21: Yellow Line, SMMA50: Orange Line, SMMA 200: Red Line)
Supports: 0.000008160 – 0.000008105 – 0.000007945
Resistances: 0.000008840 – 0.000008925 – 0.000009085
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