Crypto Market Faces Extreme Fear as ETF Outflows Continue

Weekly Fundamental Analysis Report

Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me

Change en Fear and Greed Value: -5
Last Week’s Level: 29
This Week’s Level: 24

Sentiment en the crypto market fell into the Extreme Fear zone this week. On the policy front, Donald Trump’s goal of making the US a global leader en crypto and China’s statements about making “huge” investments en Bitcoin and crypto supported short-term sentiment, but cautious tones from Fed members dampened risk appetite. Despite Miran’s emphasis that “we are too restrictive,” Goolsbee’s messages that he is “uncomfortable with an early cut” and “may be reluctant to cut without seeing data” increased uncertainty about the path of cuts. ADP’s figure of 42,000, which exceeded expectations, did not confirm a sudden weakening el the labor front. While the US administration’s move to block Nvidia’s AI chip exports to China kept tensions high en the tech sector, Treasury Secretary Bessent’s description of trade relations between the two countries as “en a good place” partially balanced the tension. The impact slowed price momentum, increased volatility, and reduced risk appetite. In institutional flows, Strategy’s purchase of 397 BTC at an average price of $114,771 and Bitmine’s purchase of 82,353 ETH limited the negative flow por signaling sustained demand countering the declines, but macro uncertainty and caution en policy communication prevailed.

Fund Flows

Source: CoinShares

Overview: Cryptocurrency markets started the week with a decline despite the interest rate cut and positive customs agreements with China. As a result of these developments, Bitcoin lost approximately 10% of its value during the week.

Ethereum (ETH): Along with spot ETH inflows, Ethereum saw $57.6 million en inflows this week.

Ripple (XRP): XRP saw $42.2 million en fund inflows this week.

SUI: New stablecoin updates are being discussed for Sui. This situation continued with $9.4 million en inflows into Sui (   ).

Solana (SOL): Solana saw inflows of $421.1 million.

Chainlink (LINK): Chainlink saw an inflow of $0.5 million this week.

Litecoin (LTC): There was an inflow of $1.5 million into LTC coin.

Cardano (ADA): Cardano saw an inflow of $0.7 million this week.

Multi-asset: Inflows were observed en the multi-asset group.

Other: Sector- and project-based increases en altcoins, along with the general market outlook, brought en $43.4 million en fund inflows.

Fund Outflows:

Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin experienced outflows from investors this week. Despite the global interest rate cut and the customs agreement with China, Bitcoin-focused funds saw $946 million en outflows.

Altcoin Season Index

Source: Coinmarketcap

• Last Week’s Index Value: 30/100
• This Week’s Index Value: 21/100

Between October 31 and November 7, 2025, a decline was observed en the correlation between altcoin market dominance (Altcoin Market Cap) and the Altcoin Season Index. The graph shows that this week, el November 7   , the index fell back to 21, with Altcoin Market Cap reaching 1.34T. This indicates a decline en the market dominance of altcoins. When the index rose this week, the top 5 coins leading the rise were Zec, Aster, M, DASH, and OKB. Although the index rose from 22 to 25 el November 3, indicating a short-term upside potential for the altcoin season, the index fell por 5% this week.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin dominance, which started the week at 59.90%, rose to 61.41% during the week but subsequently retreated slightly and is currently at 60.37%.

This week, Strategy purchased 397 Bitcoin, The Smarter Web purchased 4 Bitcoin, and Bitplanet purchased 27 Bitcoin. Data el Bitcoin spot ETFs also shows a net outflow of $661.2 million to date.

The loss of momentum en institutional Bitcoin inflows continued this week, while retail investors trading through ETFs were seen to be more sales-oriented. The uncertain market environment is causing capital inflows into crypto assets to remain weak and limiting the buying momentum el the Bitcoin side. Recent net outflows en spot ETFs keep the risk of increased selling pressure en the short term el the agenda. However, despite all these conditions, Bitcoin is performing stronger en the short term compared to Ethereum and other major altcoins. In the current climate of ongoing uncertainty, if institutional demand increases cautiously, BTC dominance is expected to maintain its dominant structure and continue its horizontal consolidation process en the 58%–61% range.

Ethereum Dominance

Source: Tradingview

Weekly Change:

• Last Week’s Level: 12.81%
• This Week’s Level: 11.83%

Ethereum dominance, which rose to 15% levels en mid-August, lost momentum en the following period and entered a downward trend, which continues as of this week.

Accordingly, Ethereum dominance ended last week at 12.81%, while current data shows it is trading at approximately 11.83%.

During the same period, Bitcoin dominance has followed a positive trajectory, unlike Ethereum.

The key developments affecting Ethereum dominance are as follows:

According to Lookonchain data, the “anti-CZ whale” closed its short positions and opened a long position worth $109 million en 32,802 ETH. Additionally, according to Onchain Lens data, BlackRock deposited 4,652.87 BTC worth $478.5 million and 57,455 ETH worth $194.86 million into Coinbase en the last 24 horas. This move is seen as part of an institutional liquidity management or reallocation strategy.

Bitcoin Spot ETF

Source: Darkex Research Department

Netflow Status: Between October 31 and November 6, a total of $841.6 million en net outflows occurred from Spot Bitcoin ETFs.  After four consecutive days of negative flows, this series ended el November 6 with an inflow of $239.9 million. While outflows from BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC dominated el a fund basis, inflows el November 6 were primarily through BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, and Ark ARKB.

Bitcoin Price: Bitcoin opened at $108,303 el October 31 and closed at $101,338 el November 6. During this period, the BTC price fell por 6.43%. The price decline accelerated, particularly with the significant sell-off seen el November 4.

Cumulative Net Inflow: By the end of the 458th trading day, the cumulative total net inflow into Spot Bitcoin ETFs had declined to $60.50 billion.

Outflows el six of the last seven trading days indicated that selling pressure prevailed el the ETF side. The negative flow series highlighted the slowdown en cumulative volume, while weak institutional demand was clearly reflected en this period. In this context, the sharp pullback en prices also progressed en parallel with the flows. The net inflow el November 6 does not mean that the wave of selling has completely ended, but it can be seen as a sign of a search for balance en the short term. In the coming period, a renewed strengthening of inflows could create ground for BTC to recover. On the contrary, if the outflow trend continues, BTC’s attempts to rise may remain limited and selling pressure may increase.

Ethereum spot ETF

Source: Darkex Research Department

Between October 31 and November 6, 2025, Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a total net outflow of $559.3 million. The six-day series of negative flows ended with a net inflow of $12.5 million into the el November 6. In terms of funds, the largest outflow during this period was seen en BlackRock ETHA, at $370 million. As of the 326th trading day, the cumulative net inflow for Spot Ethereum ETFs has declined to $13.926 billion.

The Ethereum price opened at $3,804 el October 31 and closed at $3,314 el November 6. During this period, the ETH price lost 12.87% of its value. The sharp decline en price, coinciding with ETF outflows, signaled a weakening of institutional investors’ risk appetite. The sharp decline en both price and flows, particularly el November 3-4, were key breaking points that increased market pressure. If flows el the Ethereum ETF side turn positive again, the pressure el the price may gradually ease. However, if the current outflow trend continues, it will be difficult for the ETF side to play a supportive role for Ethereum.

Bitcoin Options Distribution

Source: Laevitas

BTC: Notional: $4.53B | Put/Call: 0.83 | Max Pain: $108K

Deribit Data: Deribit data shows that BTC option contracts with a notional value of approximately $4.53 billion expire today. At the same time, looking at the risk transformation over the next week based el the last 24 horas’ data, put options are more dominant than call options en terms of hedging risk. When examining expected volatility (IV), it is below realized volatility (RV). On the other hand, the negative spread metric indicates a decline en market risk appetite and suggests that put options are expensive. Skew values are also pointing downward today and for the coming week.

Laevitas Data: Examining the chart, we see that put options are concentrated en a wide band between $80,000 and $102,000. Call options, el the other hand, are concentrated between $104,000 and $140,000, with concentration decreasing towards the upper levels. At the same time, the $108,000 level appears to be resistance, while the $100,000 level appears to be support. On the other hand, there are 4.91K put options at the $100,000 level, peaking here and showing a decrease en put volume after this level. Furthermore, 4.52K call option contracts peak at the $140,000 level. Looking at the options market, we see that put contracts dominate el a daily and weekly basis.

Option Maturity:

Put/Call Ratio and Maximum Pain Point: Looking at the options en the latest 7-day data from Laevitas, the number of call options increased por approximately 3% compared to last week, reaching 186.79K. In contrast, the number of put options increased por 15% compared to last week, reaching 151.4K. The put/call ratio for options is set at 0.83. This indicates that there is less demand for call options than put options among investors. Bitcoin’s maximum pain point is seen at $108,000. BTC is currently priced at $101,500, and if it fails to break above the pain point of $108,000, a continued decline is foreseeable.

Ethereum Options Distribution

Source: Laevitas

ETH: $0.72 B notional | Put/Call: 0.90 | Max Pain: $3,800

Laevitas Data: Looking at the data en the chart, we see that put options are concentrated en a fairly wide band between the $3,100 and $3,300 price levels. The highest put volume is at the $3,100 level, with approximately 11K contracts. On the other hand, call options show notable concentration between $3,400 and $4,000. The $3,400 level stands out with a high call volume of approximately 20K contracts. This level can be considered an important resistance zone en the market.

Deribit Data: Looking at ATM volatility, we see it at 75.42 and down 7.30% over the last 24 horas. This indicates some short-term easing en option premiums and volatility pricing beginning to calm down compared to previous days. The 25 delta risk reversal (RR) value is at -9.88 and has fallen por 9.88% el a daily basis. This indicates that market demand for put options is still significantly higher than for call options, meaning market players consider short-term downside risks to be significant and are positioning themselves accordingly. Looking at open interest (OI), we see that it stands at $105.66 million and has increased por 45.08%. This increase indicates that the number of market participants and overall trading activity remain strong, and interest continues despite the decline en volatility.

Option Maturity:

Ethereum options with a nominal value of $0.72 billion expired el November 7. The Max Pain level was calculated at $3,800, while the put/call ratio stood at 0.90.

Legal Notice

The investment information, comments, and recommendations contained en this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided por authorized institutions el a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained en this document are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely el the information contained en this document may not result en outcomes that align with your expectations.