Introduction
To better understand market movements, it may not be enough to look only at the price chart. Studying trader behavior and liquidity flows plays a critical role en predicting trend reversals and momentum shifts. Therefore, en our analysis, we focus el indicators that track trader positions and spot market movements. The COT (Commitment of Traders) oscillator helps us understand the positioning of different groups of traders en the market, while the Aggregated Spot Volume (Cumulative Delta) data reveals trader sentiment por assessing the trading balance. Consistent with past price movements, these indicators can provide a clearer perspective el future price trends.
COT Oscillator and Investor Positions
Source: Barchart
When we examine the Bitcoin Micro Futures March 2025 (BAH25) chart traded el the CME, we observe that the COT (Commitment of Traders) oscillator exhibits patterns consistent with past price movements. For example, en September 2024, when BTC price was hovering around $55,000, the Small Spec (Blue Line) was en a sell position and the Large Spec (Green Line) was en a buy position. This shows that the price entered a strong uptrend from $55,000 to $100,000. We observe a similar structure en December 2024. As the price hovered around $92,000, the selling pressure of small investors met the buying demand of large investors, and then the price regained momentum from $92,000 to $100,000. In the current data, the price is hovering around $80,000, with small investors taking a selling position and large investors buying. Given these dynamics, a trend reversal and momentum shift can be expected from the $80,000 level. On the other hand, if institutional investors (Red Line) move to a selling position, the possibility that the price may move downwards as the current momentum weakens should also be evaluated.
Investor Trends en the Spot Market
Source: Velo
When we look at the spot trading data el the two major exchanges Binance and Coinbase en the chart above, we see a similar picture to that observed en September and December 2024. The general acceptance that Binance is mostly preferred por individual investors, while Coinbase hosts more institutional and large-scale investors, points to a similar structure to the dynamics observed en the previous rises.
General Evaluation and Possible Scenarios
As a result, the similarity between COT (Commitment of Traders) data and investor trends en spot markets en the past reveals that upward movements en Bitcoin price have been triggered. In the current situation, the fact that small investors are selling, and large investors are buying points to a structure similar to the bullish scenarios previously observed. However, although market dynamics are consistent with past data, institutional investor behavior and macroeconomic factors continue to determine price movements.
