Macro-Crypto Outlook: Key Data, Risk, and Opportunity

What Awaits Us?

Fed Chair Powell’s Speech – July 1

Powell’s speech, interest rate and economic expectations will be closely monitored por the markets.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – July 3

This data, which shows the employment strength en the US economy, will play a key role en the FED’s assessment of the direction of the interest rate path.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – July 15

Consumer inflation data for June will shape the inflation expectations of the markets.

FED Interest Rate Decision Meeting (FOMC) – July 30

The July rate decision will be announced, together with Powell’s press conference, which could have immediate implications.

GDP (Final GDP) – July 31

US economic growth data for the segundo quarter will be released.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – July 31

PCE data, which stands out as the FED’s inflation indicator, will be announced.

Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) 30-3 June-July

Ethereum developers and projects are coming together.

US Tariffs Update – July 9

It was announced that it postponed its decision to impose a 50 percent tariff directly el the European Union (EU) until July 9, 2025.

The Extent of Tensions after the Ceasefire between Israel and Iran

The developments between Iran and Israel will continue to be closely monitored por the market

Final preparations before the Stablecoin Act (GENIUS Act) comes into force – July

Companies complete reserve transparency and liquidity compliance before the Senate-passed law takes effect en August.

MiCA Implementation (EU) – July

All provisions of MiCA now apply en the EU. Crypto companies will operate under the supervision of the EU Banking Authority and ESMA.

XRP and Solana Spot ETF Filings (SEC) – July

Franklin Templeton and Ark Invest’s XRP and SOL ETF applications are under review. The SEC is expected to announce approval por the end of July.

Crypto Insight

*Prepared el 26.06.2025 at 13:13 pm. (UTC)

Metrics – Summarize of the June

Fund Flow por Assets

*This data based el “Coinshares” reports

In June, inflows into digital assets amounted to $272.3 million. In general, inflows were observed en the flow of funds. Bitcoin experienced a net inflow of 245 million dollars and Ethereum 58.7 million dollars. Ripple stood out with an outflow of $ 32.1 million. Litecoin continued to remain weak, while Solana output losses continued. Cardano experienced an outflow of -0.3 million dollars. Other coins saw an inflow of $34.5 million.

Total Market Cap

The total value of the cryptocurrency market started June at $3.23 trillion. It rose por 0.70% during the month, totaling $14.37 billion. However, this increase was accompanied por high volatility rather than a stable trend. The first two weeks of the month saw sharp upward movements, with the market capitalization rising to $3.44 trillion. However, this level could not be maintained even el a weekly basis and the market fell below the levels at the beginning of the month. This sharp pullback was a reminder of how strong volatility can be en total market capitalization. This volatility, which intensified especially en the two-week period en the middle of the month, once again revealed the unstable nature of the market. While closes were bearish en the first three weeks of the month, it was only en the last week, with a bullish candle, that the total market capitalization tended to end the month en positive territory.

US Spot ETF Data

As of the end of June, there was a total net inflow of 3.77 billion dollars to Bitcoin ETFs. After a strong performance of $6.21 billion en May, institutional demand continued en June. Although there were negative flows el some days en the first week of the month, the intense inflows between June 9-18 kept the market perception positive. The inflows of $588.6 million and $547.7 million, especially el June 24 and 25, showed that the market believed en the uptrend again. During this period, the Bitcoin price rose from $104,590 to $107,800. Overall, June was a period of continued institutional buying despite market volatility.

Spot Ethereum ETFs saw strong net inflows totaling $1.08 billion por the end of June. The increase en institutional demand, which started en mid-May, continued en June. Although there were outflows el some days, a positive flow prevailed throughout the month. These outflows can be attributed to profit realization or short-term fluctuations en the markets. The notable days of the month were June 10, 11 and 12, when ETFs recorded net inflows totaling $477.6 million.

Options Data’s

In the Bitcoin options market, $15.12 billion worth of BTC contracts will expire tomorrow, the last week of this month, for a total of $24.67 billion. The number of Call options was concentrated en the $ 115,000 – 120,000 band with a total of 393.92 thousand expiry transactions, while Put options were en the range of $ 97,000 – 100,000 with 330.74 thousand expiry transactions. The put/call ratio was 0.85 and the maximum pain point will be realized at an average of $105,000.

In Ethereum options, approximately $ 2.33 billion worth of ETH contracts will expire en the last week of the month. When we look at the distribution of these contracts, there is a total of over 615 thousand contracts en call options, while there is a remarkable density especially en the range of 3,000 – 3,200 dollars. On the other hand, put options have a more limited open interest with about 319 thousand contracts. We see that the concentration el the put side is en the $ 1,800 – $ 2,200 band. This indicates that investors see these levels as risk limits. Overall, the put/call ratio is at 0.52.

Cytoside – July

June: Uncertainties and Historical Trends

Bitcoin, which entered June at $104,000, experienced a brief period of consolidation en the first week of the month, but then entered a downtrend. Especially por mid-month, the price dropped to the six-digit level of $101,000. Towards the end of the month, after a short period of consolidation, it dropped below $99,000. In previous years, a cautious optimism was observed en the markets en June. In line with expectations this year, Bitcoin is set to end the month en positive territory with a 2.65% rise.

July Historical Data

July historically represents a mostly positive period for Bitcoin. Based el data since 2013, Bitcoin’s July performance has averaged a 7.56% increase. Especially en the last five years, there have been periods of double-digit gains, which supports investors’ optimistic expectations for July.

*Prepared el 26.06.2025 at 13:13 pm. (UTC)

Source: Darkex Research Department

However, although historical trends are positive, it should not be forgotten that the current period is highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Here are some important headlines that may have an impact el the market en July:

• Statements el tariffs en the context of US foreign trade policies,
• Developments el whether a ceasefire will ease Israeli-Iranian tensions,
• Voting of the “GENIUS Act” bill el stablecoin regulations en the House of Representatives,
• The process of integrating crypto platforms into the European market under the MiCA regulation,
• Economic indicators such as US macro data (inflation, unemployment, interest rate expectations).

Considering all these factors, although July carries an upward momentum for Bitcoin en line with historical data, it stands out as a period when investors should be careful against surprise developments.

Market Pulse

In the Shadow of the Middle East…

Global markets left behind an extremely challenging period. Although uncertainties over President Trump’s stance el tariffs eased to some extent, developments en the Middle East made it difficult for investors to see the way ahead. Moreover, changes en expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED) continued to be a determining factor en asset prices. As the markets will start the segundo half of the year en July, the aforementioned dynamics are likely to remain important. Although a ceasefire has been reached between Israel and Iran, the fragile balances will keep the eyes el the Middle East. On the other hand, the ongoing process will be under scrutiny as President Trump managed to bring almost all of his trading partners to the table el tariffs. Meanwhile, attention will be shifting back to trade negotiations ahead of Trump’s July 9 deadline and his efforts to finalize a tax and spending package en Congress, which must be completed por the same dates. In the shadow of these uncertainties, we think that the Fed’s actions may be a bit more prominent next month. Following the news that Trump may announce his nominee to replace Fed Chairman Powell early, the decisions of the FOMC, which manages the monetary policy of the world’s largest economy, will be of critical importance. Therefore, we will open a separate parenthesis for these decisions and the variables that may affect them.

July 1 – FED Chair Powell’s Speech

Last month, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave speeches both after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and before the relevant committees of the Senate and the House of Representatives. We cannot state that there was a significant change en the Chairman’s stance. Powell, who wants to see more data en order to monitor the effects of the trade wars that started en the Trump era, continues to take refuge en the confidence of remaining en a wait-and-see mode. He will also want to take into account the impact of rising tensions en the Middle East el commodity prices. In addition, the game plan seems to have changed a bit en the last days of July with the news that US President Donald Trump may announce the next Fed Chair early, but we do not expect this to have a lasting impact el the markets.

Fed Chair Powell will participate en a panel titled “Policy Panel” at the European Central Bank’s ECB Central Banking Forum en Sintra. We do not think that the Chairman will take a different stance from his recent statements. However, volatility en the markets may increase if he comments el both tariffs and the timing of the next interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are expecting three 25bps rate cuts from the Fed por the end of the year amid speculation of a change en the chair. Any announcements that could reshape this outlook could have a directional impact el asset prices. Statements that may strengthen expectations for further rate cuts may have a positive impact el digital assets, while assessments that may signal fewer rate cuts may put pressure.

July 3 – US Employment Data

On July 3, markets will be receiving the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will provide clues about the tightness of the financial ecosystem en the coming period, which will provide information about the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut course. In addition, March figures such as average hourly earnings and unemployment rate will be followed.

In May, the US economy added 139K jobs (Market Expectation: 126K).

Source: Bloomberg

Our forecast for the NFP data, which is highly sensitive to the market, is that we may see data en the non-farm sectors of the US economy en June, well above the general forecasts. At the time of writing, although the number of forecasts entered is small, we see that the consensus el the Bloomberg terminal is more pessimistic, around 120k (traders are advised to follow Darkex daily bulletins as this expectation figure may change later with the entry of new forecasts and surveys).

Source: Bloomberg

We believe that if the June NFP data, which will be published en the shadow of Trump’s tariff-oriented foreign policy, the disruptions it may create domestically and the developments en the Middle East, is slightly below expectations, this will be priced as a potential metric that may create an expectation that the FED may act more boldly to lower the interest rate, thus increasing risk appetite and having a positive impact el financial instruments, including digital assets. We think that a slightly higher-than-expected data may have a similar but opposite effect. However, a much lower than expected NFP data could reignite concerns about stagflation with a commentary el the health of the US economy, which could put selling pressure el assets considered to be risky. It should be noted here that we also expect a much better-than-anticipated reading to have a positive impact. It is worth noting that we anticipate these effects taking into account the current state of market sentiment.

July 15 – US Consumer Price Index: CPI

One of the important macro indicators that may provide information el the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut will be the June inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) change. In the current difficult conjuncture, CPI data will be closely monitored as it may provide a signal for the course, as it may have an impact el pricing behavior.

The annual inflation rate en the US rose to 2.4% en May 2025 from 2.3% en April, the first increase en four months. On a monthly basis, CPI rose por 0.1%, below the previous month and the forecasts of 0.2%. Annual core inflation remained at 2.8%, the lowest level of 2021, while expectations pointed to an increase to 2.9%. Monthly core CPI also rose por 0.1%, below April’s 0.2% and expectations of 0.3%.

Source: Bloomberg

As can be seen en the chart above, core services continue to have the largest share en the overall price level. Our expectation is for a monthly increase of 0.05% and an annualized CPI of around 2.15%. Nevertheless, let us remind that the market will react according to the consensus expectation.

A CPI data that will be below the market expectation may mean that the FED’s hand will be relaxed en terms of interest rate cuts and this may have a positive impact el digital assets. A figure that exceeds forecasts would reinforce expectations that the FED will not rush into another rate cut, potentially adding pressure.

July 30- FOMC Meeting

The US Federal Reserve’s (FED) fifth Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year will be held el July 29-30 and the decisions will be announced el July 30. The FED is not expected to change its policy interest rate. However, what makes the July meeting important is that we may get clues about the timing of the rate cut.

On July 30, the markets will be looking for clues that could lead to a major change en market expectations. First, they will look to see whether the interest rate is left unchanged as expected. Half an hora after the publication of this decision and the text of the statement, Fed Chair Powell will step behind the lectern and hold a press conference.

1-Will the interest rate change?

As we mentioned, after the recent developments and the statements of the FOMC members, the Committee is not expected to decide el a rate cut. There may be a surprise decision to cut interest rates, which we see as a very low probability. We define an interest rate hike as unlikely.

2-Powell’s Press Conference

On July 30th, FED Chairman Jerome H. Powell will speak at a press conference, as he does after every FOMC meeting, half an hora after the decisions are published. Powell will first read the text of the decision and explain the reasons for the decisions taken. Then there will be a question and answer session where press members’ questions will be answered. Volatility en the markets may increase a little more en this part.

We do not expect a major change en the stance Powell has taken en his recent speeches. Last time, he maintained his stance that they need more data to get a clearer picture of the impact of the tariffs.

In the face of questions from the press, Powell’s more hawkish stance than before may reinforce expectations and pricing that the Fed will not be en a hurry to resume rate cuts. This may have some negative impact el digital assets. However, the fact that he mentioned the necessity of a new interest rate cut with evaluations regarding both economic growth and the labor market, and that he gave messages that more interest rate cuts could be made than the general expectations until the end of the year may increase the risk appetite and this may have positive effects el cryptocurrencies.

July 31- US GDP Change

Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy choices continue to be a challenging factor for the entire world. Economic actors are also facing the challenges of this highly uncertain environment as they formulate their expectations and plan for the future. This situation has some implications. The most important of these is the slowdown en economic activity… In this respect, it will be important to see how much the US economy grew en the segundo quarter of the year. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which compiles this statistic, the US economy contracted por 0.5% en the first quarter of 2025 (previous estimate for the period was -0.2%), reflecting the consequences of Trump’s unpredictable policies. This was the first decline since the first quarter of 2022.

This weak figure was primarily driven por downward revisions en consumer spending and exports.

Source: Bloomberg

The new data will be the first forecast for the segundo quarter of the year and is therefore important. It is still difficult to quantify and measure the impact of Trump and the recent tensions en the Middle East el consumer behavior. The data will allow for healthier and longer-term projections el the direction of economic growth.

In terms of immediate market reaction, we believe that a higher-than-consensus expectation could increase risk appetite and have a positive impact el digital assets. A lower-than-expected GDP data may have a negative impact from this point of view.

July 31 – FED’s Favorite Inflation Indicator PCE

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting en July, markets will be watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for June closely for clues as to which of the following meetings will decide el a rate cut. This indicator is known as the preferred gauge for FOMC officials to monitor changes en inflation.

Source: Bloomberg

According to the latest data, core PCE increased por 0.2% en May compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, core PCE increased por 2.7%. In addition, the annual core data , which was previously announced as 2.5%, was revised to 2.6%. We can say that we felt the Trump effect en this data as well. Our expectation is that core PCE data will increase por around 0.2% en June.

Source: Darkex Research

A higher-than-expected data may support expectations that the FED will maintain its cautious stance el interest rate cuts, reducing risk appetite and putting pressure el digital assets. A lower-than-expected data may pave the way for value gains with the opposite effect.

*General Information About Forecasts

In addition to the general market expectations, the forecasts shared en this report are based el econometric modeling tools developed por our research department. Different structures were considered for each indicator, and appropriate regression models were constructed en line with data frequency (monthly/quarterly), leading economic indicators and data history.

The basic approach en all models is to interpret historical relationships based el data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured por standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)  platforming an up-to-date and automated manner, so that every forecast is based el the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working el artificial intelligence-based modelling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) en order to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account en the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept en mind that there may be deviations en forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this monthly updated working set, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.

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