BRÚJULA DE MERCADO
Trade War Begins
Global markets are leaving behind a dizzying week. The trade wars sparked by Trump have forced investors to watch historic pricing that has rarely been seen before. Wall Street struggled to price in a climate of very high tariffs on selected countries, followed by a 90-day postponement of these tariffs, and then a reduction of the issue to a US-China spat. We saw very sharp rises and falls, and the repercussions were felt across all financial instruments.
With Trump’s unpredictable behavior and decisions, it is hard to say where the issue will evolve. In the current picture, it does not seem like China will give in. But even if we try to predict what we will witness in the coming days and weeks, we can say that both Trump’s and China’s behavior change the variables of the equation very often, and in such an uncertain environment, forecasting models may be useless. We can only say that we remain convinced that Trump intends to use the tariff weapon as a tool before coming to the table to negotiate.
Over the weekend and into next week, news on customs data will continue to drive prices. In addition, there will be a few developments on our radar where we may get clues about the future stance of the US Federal Reserve (FED), which is closely related to the dose of global financial tightness. Let us remind you that the bond market in the US will work for half a day on Jueves, while all US markets will be closed on Viernes for “Good Viernes”. On Miércoles, the US retail sales data for Marzo and FED Chair Powell’s speech will be under our close scrutiny.
Discurso del presidente de la FED, Powell
We are living through a period of unusual pricing. In addition to the sharp falls and rises in Wall Street indices, we are also observing interesting changes in the bond-bill market. Assets that are considered to be relatively safer in order to escape the negative impact of trade wars, apart from the short-term but harsh impact of the 90-day postponement decision, increased demand gained value. However, there is one point that stands out and that is the US bond pricing.
The yield on the US 10-year note fell as low as 3.86% during the week on the back of increased demand, but rates started to rise on Abril 7 as markets continued to be risk averse. Yields climbed as high as 4.51% as investors sold US assets as risky. Meanwhile, during the week, we also witnessed a profound shift in expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) decisions coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in Mayo and Junio.
Against this backdrop, FED Chairman Powell is expected to deliver a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Miércoles. We will be watching closely what he has to say, especially on the potential economic damage from tariffs and inflation. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, at the time of writing, the Fed is not expected to make a rate change at its Mayo 7 meeting. However, a 25 basis point rate cut at the Junio 17-18 meeting is priced around 62%.
The chairman’s comments that may cause these expectations to change may lead to harsh pricing. If we look at the speeches of the last FOMC members, we can expect Powell to emphasize that the effects of changes in tariffs may be harsher than expected. However, it needs to be filtered whether he sees this as a bigger problem for economic growth or inflation. If the President emphasizes the need for a rate cut, this could provide some breathing space for the markets and have a positive impact on digital assets. If he emphasizes the continuation of the wait-and-see strategy, the markets’ expectations for a rate cut may be postponed, which may bring sales to risky instruments, including digital assets.
US Retail Sales Data: It is an important measure of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of overall economic activity. It shows the change in the total value of retail-level sales and is published monthly, about 16 days after the end of the month. A separate measure of the change in the total value of retail-level sales excluding automobiles is called core retail sales. The retail sales data set is generally expected to have a positive impact on digital assets if it is below expectations.
Brújula digital
Consideramos un avance muy importante que una reserva estratégica de criptomonedas esté en la agenda de EE.UU., la locomotora de la economía mundial. Sin embargo, el hecho de que los mercados ya hubieran puesto en precio el "mejor escenario posible" antes y después de las elecciones estadounidenses, combinado con las noticias "menos que perfectas" sobre esta cuestión, ejerció presión sobre los activos digitales. Seguimos manteniendo la cuestión de las reservas estratégicas en nuestra ecuación como una variable positiva para las criptodivisas a largo plazo. Por otro lado, pensamos que podemos seguir viendo presión a medio plazo con la falta de flujo de noticias nuevas que generen entusiasmo en el mercado de criptomonedas y nuevas preocupaciones en los mercados globales de que la actividad económica mundial pueda ralentizarse, especialmente con los aranceles de Trump. A corto plazo, los mercados seguirán siendo sensibles a los indicadores macro y a los acontecimientos relacionados con los aranceles.
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INFORMACIÓN
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Aviso legal
La información sobre inversiones, los comentarios y las recomendaciones que figuran en este documento no constituyen servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversiones. Los servicios de asesoramiento en materia de inversión son prestados por instituciones autorizadas con carácter personal, teniendo en cuenta las preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad de los particulares. Los comentarios y recomendaciones contenidos en este documento son de tipo general. Estas recomendaciones pueden no ser adecuadas para su situación financiera y sus preferencias de riesgo y rentabilidad. Por lo tanto, tomar una decisión de inversión basándose únicamente en la información contenida en este documento puede no dar lugar a resultados acordes con sus expectativas.
