Market Compass
Trade War Developments After FOMC
- Last night, the markets carefully followed the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the statements of the Bank’s Chairman Powell.
- As expected, the FOMC kept the policy rate unchanged, while Powell pointed out that with the tariffs, risks to unemployment and inflation have increased. The FED reiterated its signal to continue its “wait-and-see” policy. While the markets are pricing in the Fed to skip the June meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is around 57% at the time of writing, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The expectation of three rate cuts until the end of the year stands out for now.
- Another important development last night was the statements made by US President Trump via social media. The President said that today at 10:00 local time (14:00 GMT), he will announce a trade deal with an important country. The markets were speculating that this country was the UK, and then the President announced that a full and comprehensive agreement had been reached with this country.
- In addition, talks between the US and its delegations in Switzerland on tariffs are expected to start at the weekend.
- While Asian stock markets closed positive on the back of positive developments on trade wars, indices in Europe are also on the rise this morning. On the continent, expectations that a trade deal may have been signed between the US and the UK were at the forefront and Trump’s latest statement clarified this issue. Wall Street futures contracts are also on the positive side with the trade wars turning into negotiations on the table.
- With expectations that global risks have decreased, major digital assets continued the rise that started yesterday evening during European transactions. Bitcoin approached 6-digit price levels again.
- We continue to maintain our view that we expect short-term upside in this ecosystem if institutional investor interest remains buoyant.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Considering the recent developments, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
Highlights of The Day
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Hedera (HBAR) Hedera Community Call | – | – |
| – | Euler (EUL) Balancer & Euler AMA | – | – |
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 230K | 241K |
| 14:00 | President Trump Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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