Macro Shifts and Tariff Tensions Shape Market Outlook

Bussola di mercato

Macro Data and Tariffs

• In global markets, the news flow regarding the US trade policy with tariffs remains on the agenda.
• The focus is on the expected phone call between Trump and Chinese leader Xi this week. But there is no clear evidence of when this will happen after the recent troubled period of mutual accusations. Trump has said on social media that he likes Xi, but that he is difficult to get along with.
• We are in a week where macro indicators, especially data on the US labor market, are being monitored and yesterday’s JOLTS data, which shows job openings, came in above the forecasts and recession concerns seem to have eased somewhat.
• ADP Private Sector Employment Change will be under scrutiny today ahead of Venerdì’s critical Non-Farm Payroll Change data. ISM Services PMI will also be closely monitored as it may affect the dose of risk appetite.
• Wall Street futures are pointing to a positive opening and European stock markets are also generally higher. In Germany, the DAX rose to a new record high after the government approved a €46 billion tax cut package for 2025-2029 to support businesses and stimulate economic growth. On the digital assets front, the calm continues.
• We foresee a sideways trend for major digital assets in the short term. We maintain our upside view for the medium and long term.

Per un'analisi dettagliata del nostro rapporto di analisi tecnica bi-giornaliero e degli ultimi sviluppi degli asset digitali clicca qui.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; shows the estimated change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding the agricultural sector and government, by analysing payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain estimates of employment growth by Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP). It usually gives a hint of employment growth 2 days before the employment data released by the government. Usually, lower-than-expected ADP data has a positive impact on digital assets.

ISM Services PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers excluding the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the third business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Services PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.

The Beige Book; is one of the three books of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), along with the Green Book and the Blue Book, which provide information on how interest rate decisions may change, and only the Beige Book is made public. Its impact on markets is generally limited and it is published eight times a year, two weeks before the FOMC meetings. It reflects information provided by the 12 Federal Reserve banks on local economic conditions in the country, and the messages from it may provide clues for the next interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve.

Highlight of the Day

Importanti dati del calendario economico

Informazioni

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Avviso legale

Le informazioni, i commenti e le raccomandazioni sugli investimenti contenuti nel presente documento non costituiscono servizi di consulenza sugli investimenti. I servizi di consulenza sugli investimenti sono forniti da istituti autorizzati su base personale, tenendo conto delle preferenze di rischio e di rendimento dei singoli. I commenti e le raccomandazioni contenuti nel presente documento sono di tipo generale. Tali raccomandazioni potrebbero non essere adatte alla vostra situazione finanziaria e alle vostre preferenze di rischio e rendimento. Pertanto, prendere una decisione di investimento basandosi esclusivamente sulle informazioni contenute nel presente documento potrebbe non portare a risultati in linea con le vostre aspettative.