BTC Struggles Below $109K as Crypto Awaits New Catalysts

Bitcoin faces resistance under $109K while ETH, XRP, SOL, and DOGE show mixed signals. Here’s the Luglio 4, 2025 evening technical outlook.
Markets Watch Tariff Moves as Trade Tensions Resurface

BTC/USDT

While White House advisor Bo Hines predicts that the crypto industry in the US could reach a size of $ 15-20 trillion after stablecoin regulations; White House “crypto czar” David Sacks declared the week of Luglio 14 as “Crypto Week”. In this process, critical bills such as GENIUS and CLARITY will be brought to the agenda of both the Senate and the House. On the other hand, Trump will start sending diplomatic letters regarding tariffs and set Luglio 9 as the deadline for trade negotiations.

Looking at the technical outlook, BTC continues to maintain its strong stance, while the horizontal band range it formed near the ATH level attracts attention. The price, which could not maintain above the resistance level of 110,000, continues to retreat and trade just below the 109,000 level.

Technical indicators show signs of weakening near the Wave Trend (WT overbought zone. While the histogram on the Squeeze Momentum (SM) indicator moved back into positive territory, it started to accompany the weakness after the negative mismatch. The Kaufman moving average is just below the price at 108.400.

When the liquidity data is analyzed, BTC, which headed towards the liquidity area with the recent rise, this time liquidated the sell-side transactions above 110,000. Then, the price, which faced selling pressure, fell below the 109,000 level, while it may target buy trades at 108,400.

As a result, while fundamental developments continue to be a catalyst for pricing, a new catalyst may be needed for the uptrend to gain momentum after this stage. Technically, while the possibility of a correction is on the agenda, liquidity data draws a neutral picture. After the market’s short-term search for direction on the horizontal, the intensity in liquidity data may give us a message about the direction. In this context, we will follow the 109,000-110,000 band for now. In case the rise regains momentum, the price exceeding the 110,000 level will be a reference for us on behalf of the new ATH, while in a possible selling pressure, the reaction of the price from the liquidity area at 108,500 will be followed.

Supports 109,000 – 108,500 – 107,500

Resistances 110,000 – 111,000 – 111,970

BTCUSDT

ETH/USDT

ETH made a short-term correction during the day, falling as low as $2,533. Thanks to the purchases from this level, the price regained strength and managed to rise above $2,550. This reaction buying shows that the short-term technical structure has not yet completely broken down and investors consider this level as a temporary bottom.

In terms of technical indicators, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is flat around the zero line, suggesting indecision among market participants. This situation on CMF suggests that a strong inflow or outflow of money has not yet clearly formed in the market and investors are hesitant to determine the direction.

The picture is similar on the Ichimoku indicator. While the horizontal course of the kijun line and the kumo cloud indicates that the uncertainty of direction in the market continues, the fact that the price remains above the kijun level confirms that the overall trend remains positive. This suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the uptrend is not yet over.

On the momentum indicator side, although there is a limited recovery signal, it is observed that the weakness continues in terms of the overall structure. This shows that the price has not gained a strong momentum despite the upward reactions and short-term downside risks are still on the table.

In summary, if the ETH price continues to stay above the $2,533 support in the evening hours, it may be possible for the upside movements to gain strength and move above the $2,600 level. However, if the $2,533 support breaks, the price is likely to retreat to the upper band of the kumo cloud at $2,463 as selling pressure increases. Therefore, these two levels will continue to play a decisive role in short-term price movements.

Supporti 2.533 - 2.329 - 2.130

Resistenze 2.736 - 2.857 - 3.062

ETHUSDT

XRP/USDT

XRP fell below the kijun line, a technically critical level during the day, and retreated to the level of $2.21. While this region stands out as a strong support point in the short term, it was noteworthy that the price rebounded with the purchases from here. The fact that the price rose to the kijun level again shows that buyers still care about this support zone and continue to react.

Technical indicators largely maintained the structure seen in the morning hours. The slight recovery of the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator after moving into the negative zone indicates that liquidity inflows to the market have started, albeit limited. However, the weakness of these inflows reveals that there is no clear direction on the market and a cautious course continues.

Although the momentum indicator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) have shown slight increases in response to the price recovery, they remain structurally weak in general. The fragile picture in these two indicators raises questions about the persistence of upward movements.

On the Ichimoku indicator, the price reaching the kijun line again stands out as an important threshold in the short term. However, the fact that the kumo cloud maintains its horizontal and stable structure supports that there is indecision in the market direction. This structure does not produce a clear signal in the direction of the trend and indicates that the price is in the decision phase.

As a result, it is very important for the price to persist above the kijun level in the evening hours in order to regain upward momentum. Closes above this level could pave the way for a potential move towards the $2.33 level. On the other hand, in case of a break below the $2.21 level, the declines are likely to accelerate and the price is likely to retreat to the next support level of $2.08.

Supports 2.2111 – 2.0841 – 1.9115

Resistances 2.3376 – 2.5900 – 2.8347

XRPUSDT

SOL/USDT

SOL price was flat during the day. The asset managed to hold between the strong resistance at $150.67 and the 200 EMA (Black Line). The price, which is currently below the uptrend that started on Giugno 22, may follow the $144.35 level as a target on candle closes below the 200 EMA moving average.

On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the bearish trend may continue in the medium term. At the same time, the fact that the price is below both moving averages suggests that the market is currently in a bearish trend in the short term. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) continues to be in negative territory; in addition, a decline in inflows could push CMF deeper into negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) has moved down to neutral. The $163.80 level stands out as a strong resistance point in case of a bullish breakout on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $ 144.35 level can be tested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.

Supporti 144,35 - 138,73 - 133,74

Resistenze 150,67 - 163,80 - 171,82

SOLUSDT

DOGE/USDT

DOGE price was bearish during the day. While it managed to stay above the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average, it failed to break the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average and remained inside the falling pennant pattern. If the price, which is currently supported by the 50 EMA, does not accelerate and breaks this moving average and breaks the falling pennant pattern downwards, the $ 0.12282 level should be followed.

On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the asset is bearish in the medium term. The fact that the price is between both moving averages suggests that the asset is in the decision phase in the short term. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) continues to be in negative territory. In addition, negative inflows could push CMF deeper into the negative territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI-14), on the other hand, fell to the neutral level and selling pressure continues. The $0.17766 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in case of a possible rise in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.16686 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the momentum may increase and a new bullish wave may start.

Supporti 0,16686 - 0,15680 - 0,14952

Resistenze 0,17766 - 0,18566 - 0,19909

DOGEUSDT

Avviso legale

Le informazioni sugli investimenti, i commenti e le raccomandazioni contenute nel presente documento non costituiscono una consulenza sugli investimenti. I servizi di consulenza sugli investimenti sono forniti individualmente da istituzioni autorizzate che tengono conto delle preferenze di rischio e di rendimento dei singoli individui. I commenti e le raccomandazioni contenuti nel presente documento sono di natura generale. Tali raccomandazioni potrebbero non essere adatte alla vostra situazione finanziaria e alle vostre preferenze di rischio e rendimento. Pertanto, prendere una decisione di investimento basandosi esclusivamente sulle informazioni contenute nel presente documento potrebbe non produrre risultati in linea con le vostre aspettative.

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