Bitcoin and Ethereum’s 12-Year December Report Card 2014–2025
Source: Coinglass
Time moves much faster in the cryptocurrency markets than in traditional markets. The saying that one crypto year is equivalent to ten human years is one of the best ways to summarize the market’s high volatility. As the year draws to a close, investors are often caught between two emotions. These emotions are regret over missed opportunities throughout the year and hopeful expectations as the new year approaches (the Santa Claus Rally). However, emotions are volatile, and data tells us the truth.
Historical performance data from 2014 to 2025 shows that December is not always a month of celebration for cryptocurrencies, but rather a period of reckoning and balancing. In this study, we combine the December performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum in a single table to examine the year-end behavior of these two giants, their points of divergence, and their historical cycles.
| YEAR | BTC December Return | ETH December Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | -15.11% | – |
| 2015 | +13.83% | – |
| 2016 | +30.80% | -6.32% |
| 2017 | +38.89% | +70.54% |
| 2018 | -5.15% | +19.68% |
| 2019 | -5.15% | -15.09% |
| 2020 | +46.92% | +19.46% |
| 2021 | -18.90% | -20.61% |
| 2022 | -3.59% | -7.60% |
| 2023 | +12.18% | +11.31% |
| 2024 | -2.85% | -9.75% |
| 2025 | -4.12% | -5.53% |
Source: Coinglass
The Story of December Performance by Year
A closer look at the table reveals that the invisible hand determining the market’s fate is the Halving cycles. The December months of 2016, 2020, and 2024, when Bitcoin mining rewards were halved, have created a unique character. Theoretically, Halving pushes the price up by restricting new supply, but this effect does not occur immediately. It took approximately six months for the halving events in July 2016 and May 2020 to translate into supply scarcity in the market, and this period coincided precisely with the end of the year, i.e., December. Therefore, it would be insufficient to interpret the strong +30.8% and +46.9% increases observed in December of these years solely as a Santa Claus rally. The fact that investors did not sell in response to the decrease in supply rapidly drove the price up and created a parabolic appearance in the market.
The most striking deviation in the table occurred in December 2024. Despite being a halving year, the period closed negatively at -2.85%. This is because the halving effect was priced in from the beginning of the year due to expectations of ETF approval. The sharp +37% rise in November exhausted the market’s enthusiasm, and the expected rise in December was replaced by a sell-the-news behavior. The historical cycle was thus disrupted for the first time.
Looking at the December performance of halving years, one constant stands out: Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum every time. In 2016, Bitcoin rose +30% while Ethereum fell -6%. In 2020, BTC rose +46%, while ETH remained at +19%. Although both assets declined in 2024, Bitcoin remained more resilient at -2%, while Ethereum lost -9% in value. This table proves that capital prefers Bitcoin as a safe haven at the end of the Halving cycle.
Outside of Halving years, market direction has been driven by psychology. December 2014 (-15%) was a period of complete despair, fueled by the Mt. Gox collapse. December 2015 (+13%), however, stood out as a phase of accumulation by smart money ahead of the upcoming Halving.
The peak of the ICO craze in 2017 saw both Bitcoin (+38%) and Ethereum (+70%) deliver their most enthusiastic December performance. Ethereum’s higher returns during this period marked the peak of the altcoin season. In 2018, during the toughest period of the bear market, Bitcoin fell by -5%, while Ethereum gained +19% in value, demonstrating that it could sometimes diverge based on its own internal dynamics.
Recently, with the market maturing since 2021, movements have become synchronized, but risk appetite has weakened. December 2021 and 2022 closed negatively. 2021 represents the end of the bull market, while 2022 represents the turmoil caused by the FTX crisis. Looking at 2025, even though we are still at the beginning of the month, the picture looks negative. Bitcoin and Ethereum started December poorly, down 4.12% and 5.53%, respectively. Following the sharp declines in November, this start signals a period of fatigue similar to that seen in 2014.
4 Strategic Lessons the Data Tells Us
When we combine the chart with the Halving cycles, the following strategic roadmap emerges for investors:
- If it’s a Halving year (2016, 2020, 2024), historically, the most profitable strategy is to stay in Bitcoin in December rather than seeking adventure. Ethereum and altcoins typically shine in the first quarter of the year following the Halving year (e.g., 2017, 2021).
- According to the chart, when the market is generally bearish or uncertain, Ethereum’s losses are almost always deeper than Bitcoin’s. Holding ETH during bear markets or uncertain Decembers is more costly than holding BTC.
- If November of a given year has been very enthusiastic (large green candles), December typically sees Profit Taking (Red). 2013 and 2024 are the strongest evidence of this. Conversely, in years where November was bloody (2018, 2022), December tends to be calmer or show a slight recovery.
- In 12 years of data, Bitcoin has only closed December positively 7 times, while Ethereum (since it was listed) has only done so 4 times. Therefore, December is not a guaranteed profit month.
Conclusion
The picture that has emerged since 2014 shows that December is a unique period in the crypto markets. The last month of the year often becomes a time when emotional expectations clash with market realities. During this process, the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum is fueled by both their own internal dynamics and the macroeconomic effects that have accumulated throughout the year.
The price movements observed throughout December offer important clues about how the market completes the year’s overall narrative. Liquidity conditions, regulatory developments, global risk appetite, and investors’ year-end positioning are among the key factors shaping this period.
The past performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum suggests that the price behavior seen in December often signals a transition period. This transition can sometimes be a precursor to trends that become more pronounced in the first months of the new year.
Ultimately, when historical data is compiled, December emerges as a noteworthy period for observing the cyclical nature of crypto markets and completing the overall picture of the year. Therefore, this month can be considered an important observation point not only in terms of price performance but also for understanding the entirety of market dynamics.
