Introduction
In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union has been implementing a succession of sanctions packages to exert economic, financial and political pressure. These sanctions aim not only to isolate Moscow in the international arena but also to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience. At this point, the 19th sanctions package specifically targets Russia’s energy exports, which are its most critical source of income, its financial sector, its large corporations and the alternative routes it has developed to circumvent the existing sanctions. In this way, the EU is both testing its own resilience and forcing Russia to engage in diplomacy, despite the increasing costs of prolonging the war. The package has not yet been officially adopted, but the proposals and the draft text under discussion clearly indicate the direction of the EU’s strategy going forward. In this context, the scope and possible effects of the new sanctions are critical for both Europe’s internal balances and the global economy.
Key Elements of the Sanctions Package
Energy Sector
- The EU proposes to ban imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia until January 1, 2027. This date is earlier than the previously proposed January 1, 2028.
- Adding new ships to the list of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, a fleet of ships used for oil and LNG transportation to avoid sanctions. In other words, in total, this fleet consists of over 560 ships.
- A full transaction ban on major energy companies such as Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, as well as oil trading, refineries and petrochemical companies.
Financial Measures and Banks
- A full transaction ban on Russian banks and their operations in third countries is planned. These banks may be linked to channels used by the EU to circumvent previous sanctions.
- Restrictions will be imposed on Russia’s alternative payment systems and credit card systems (e.g. MIR), as well as on fast payment systems.
Crypto Assets and Crypto Platforms
- With this package, it is envisaged to impose a transaction ban on cryptocurrency platforms and restrictions on crypto transactions. Russian citizens’ crypto transactions and activities related to crypto assets are intended to be controlled.
- In addition, special economic zones and ports used to circumvent sanctions through entities operating in third countries will be placed under surveillance. Export controls and surveillance mechanisms are being tightened.
Export Controls and High Technology
- Restrict exports of high-tech products such as high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, and geospatial data services to Russia or to entities doing business with Russia.
- Export controls will be increased on critical commodities such as chemicals, metal components, salts and ores that could support Russia’s war industry.
- Other Measures
- Sanctions will be imposed on individuals and organizations involved in the abduction, integration and ideological influence of Ukrainian children by Russia.
- Some restrictions will be imposed in relation to tourism. In other words, sanctions with cultural and social dimensions, such as limiting intra-Russian tourism activities, are being considered.
Explanations with Examples
Some concrete examples below illustrate how the sanctions will work.
- Imposing transaction bans on large energy companies such as Rosneft and Gazprom Neft would make it difficult for these companies to obtain financing with EU banks and operate in EU markets. For example, Rosneft may find it difficult to obtain tanker insurance, and it may find it practically impossible to do business with credit or financial service providers.
- Restricting international access to national payment infrastructures, such as the MIR credit card system and Russia’s fast payment system, means limiting financial transactions of Russian individuals and companies with EU countries. Transactions through these systems should be traceable and cross-border money flows should be prevented or made more difficult.
- The ban on crypto platforms aims to control financial flows through cryptocurrency transfers and anonymous wallets, which Russia has used to evade sanctions. For example, transactions in assets such as Bitcoin and stablecoins could be banned or severely restricted within the EU.
- The listing of shadow fleet vessels means limiting their capacity to obtain insurance and reinsurance. For example, if ships carrying oil from Russia are included in this list, it may become much more difficult and costly for them to export oil by sea.
Potential Impacts and Challenges
- Financing pressure from energy revenues will increase. Restrictions on LNG and oil trade will reduce the budget revenues of the Russian state.
- Russian banks’ relations with the international financial system may partially break down, deepening financial isolation.
- Crypto bans will increase the need for supervision and regulation; sanctioned smuggling may shift to more sophisticated methods.
- Alternative buyers and supply routes will have to be used in trade chains and the international oil/energy market, which means complex choices for third countries.
- Within the EU, the speed with which some member states adopt sanctions may vary due to energy dependence, economic costs and political reservations. This can lead to incompatibilities in implementation.
Conclusion
The EU’s 19th sanctions package is not only a political message but also a structural instrument focused on shrinking the main sources of income and financing of the Russian economy. Energy revenues account for around 40% of the Russian budget. Restrictions on LNG and oil exports would lead to an annual loss of tens of billions of dollars in Moscow’s export revenues. For example, a ban on LNG sales to the EU alone would cost Russia about 5 to 7 billion dollars in lost revenue on an annual basis. This puts depreciation pressure on the ruble and increases inflation.
Financial sanctions limit banks’ capacity for international transactions. Since 2022, 14 major Russian banks have been excluded from the SWIFT system; the inclusion of new banks in the 19th package deepens financial isolation. This limits the access of Russian companies to EU markets, makes it more difficult to obtain credit and reduces foreign investors’ confidence in Russia. As a result, corporate borrowing costs in Russia increase, capital outflows accelerate, and real sector investments shrink.
Restrictions on crypto assets would also mean the closure of alternative financial channels. In the period 2022-2024, it is estimated that Russian individuals made an average annual transaction of 20 billion dollars over crypto. Closing these channels would complicate both capital transfers and import financing. Thus, Russia’s capacity to balance its foreign trade deficit is weakening.
Export controls and bans on high-tech products directly affect Russia’s defense industry. In particular, restricting access to artificial intelligence, microchips and high-performance computer systems slows Russia’s progress in modern missile systems, unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare technologies. This, in turn, has a medium-term negative impact on performance on the battlefield. At the same time, the import-dependent nature of Russian industry creates bottlenecks in production chains and increases production costs.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the Russian economy contracted by 2.1% in 2022, grew by around 1.5% in 2023, but the growth rate declined again in the 2024-2025 period due to sanctions. When the 19th package is implemented, according to the forecasts of institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Russia’s growth rate in the 2025-2026 period is expected to remain between 0% to 1%, while inflation will hover at double-digit levels. This puts pressure on both Russia’s public budget and household welfare in the long run.
From an EU perspective, there is a risk that sanctions will increase energy costs, but over the last three years, the EU’s dependence on Russia has fallen from 40% to less than 10% thanks to the diversification of LNG imports, increased purchases of natural gas from Norway and the US, and accelerated investments in renewable energy. This makes EU economies more resilient to potential shocks.
As a result, the 19th sanctions package puts the Russian economy under multidimensional pressure, from its energy revenues to its financial system, from its technological capacity to its international trade. In the short term, this package reduces Russia’s ability to finance its war economy, in the medium term it destabilizes its macroeconomic stability, and in the long term it accelerates its marginalization in the global system. From an analytical point of view, these sanctions strengthen the pressure on Moscow to pursue diplomacy and make the EU’s strategic autonomy goals more concrete.
Disclaimer
This analysis of the EU’s prospective 19th sanctions package is for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute legal, compliance, policy, or investment advice. Sanctions rules are complex and change frequently; details may differ from early proposals, and enforcement can vary by jurisdiction. Do not rely on this summary to make operational or financial decisions. For up-to-date guidance tailored to your situation, consult official EU texts and qualified legal/compliance counsel. The views expressed here are analytical, not political endorsements.
