Trump’s Approval Rating Is Falling
Although US President Donald Trump’s approval rating dropping from 41% to 38% in polls may seem like a three-point decline, such changes indicate the existence of a critical situation. Especially with the elections approaching, falling below the 40% level, which is seen as a psychological resistance point, could trigger a sense of insecurity among undecided voters. Under normal conditions, Donald Trump has a solid voter base that fluctuates between 35% and 45%. The main problem here is not the Republican core voters. The key point is the erosion among independent and undecided voters.
Reasons for the Decline in Approval Ratings
Cost of Living and Economic Concerns
The economy plays a decisive role in voter behavior. Even if the data presented paints a positive picture, if the real economy as perceived by voters is different, approval ratings will fall. Rising living costs, housing affordability, and credit interest rates in recent times are putting pressure on the middle-class voter base in particular. Trump is struggling to maintain the economic confidence he once built among voters. It is important to remember that when it comes to the economy, perception is more powerful than statistics.
Government Crises and Institutional Fatigue
The conflicts in Congress, government shutdowns, and budget crises are creating stress and fatigue among voters due to uncertainty. Congress’ approval rating is at an all-time low. The approval rating is falling due to the negative perception of Trump’s ability to resolve crises.
Losses Among Independent Voters
While the vast majority of Republican voters continue to support Trump, support among independent voters has declined somewhat. Although it may seem insignificant, this group of voters, known as independents, is actually the segment that determines election results. Although ties with this group were limited prior to the 2024 elections, they had reached a sufficient level. At present, however, it is clear that there is a distance between this group of voters and Trump.
Factors That Increased Approval Ratings in Previous Elections
There were three main reasons that boosted Trump’s approval rating in the past. These were:
Economic Performance
Prior to COVID-19, low unemployment and stock market performance bolstered Trump’s claims of economic success. His approval rating stood at around 45% during this period. Voters saw the president as the reason for the improvement in their wallets.
Anti-Establishment Political Identity
In 2016, Trump’s biggest advantage was his anti-establishment stance. His identity as a “businessman from outside the establishment” resonated in Rust Belt states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin). This rhetoric is still effective today, but he is now seen as being at the center of the establishment rather than outside it.
Security and Immigration Policies
His statements on security and immigration consolidated the Republican voter base. This stance remains one of Trump’s strongest policies. However, winning the election by motivating only his base is nearly impossible; he must also convince centrist voters.
The Cryptocurrency Community Factor
Trump’s recent positive messages about cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have attracted attention. There are a significant number of cryptocurrency investors in the US. Cryptocurrencies emerged as a result of distrust in the traditional financial system. This is consistent with Trump’s anti-establishment identity mentioned above.
Cryptocurrency investors are generally between the ages of 18 and 45 and do not hold fixed political views. However, the cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to political uncertainty. Trump’s statements regarding cryptocurrency have had an impact on this group, and this impact can also be observed on the price of Bitcoin. However, it is unclear whether cryptocurrencies alone are large enough to change election results. Nevertheless, even if they do not change election results, it is a fact that they have the potential to create a significant impact.
Cryptocurrency investors have heard many promises up to this point. They are now waiting for these promises to be turned into action. If Trump goes beyond rhetoric and begins to take concrete steps, he could win over a large portion of this voter base.
The Republican Base Remains Strong
This is also due to the sharp polarization in American politics. The media plays a huge role here. Conservative voters feed off sources that align with their ideology. These voters are sometimes inclined to vote not because they approve of their own candidate, but because they dislike the other side’s candidate. This situation gives Trump a vote share of around 35%-40%. However, Trump is also aware that this percentage alone will not be sufficient to win the election.
A low approval rating means low popularity. The president’s popularity is one of the most important factors in winning elections. To prevent voters from distancing themselves, Trump must use his ability to turn crises to his advantage. Polls can also be wrong. We have seen this in previous elections.
Trump’s approval rating falling to 38% can be seen as a sign of weakness. The situation is serious, especially if the erosion among independent voters is not brought under control. However, support for Trump is not highly volatile and fluctuates within a narrow range. The important thing here is actually to win back independent voters. In this context, crypto voters can be considered a somewhat more limited factor. A young and anti-establishment crowd may be easy to win over, but the votes of centrist voters, who make decisions based on economic perceptions, will be decisive.
In summary, while the 38% approval rating signals cause for alarm, the game is not over yet. Trump’s future will depend on how much he can move toward the center rather than his own base in the coming period.
Disclaimer:
This content is provided for informational and analytical purposes only. Political developments discussed herein do not constitute investment advice. Market reactions to political events may vary, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.
