Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 90,576.0 | -0.10% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 3,124.66 | -0.01% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF | -54.72M | Net Outflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETF | +35.50M | Net Inflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,654.8 | -0.06% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,846.50 | -0.35% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,522.4 | -0.02% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 98.735 | -0.02% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 16.66 | +8.11% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.17095 | +0.80% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 62.873 | -0.08% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 4,182.46 | -0.18% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 57.948 | -0.16% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.55 am”
Today’s Key Events
- US President Trump to Make Economic Announcements
- JN BOJ Gov. Ueda to Speak
- US JOLTS Job Openings (October)
- US 3-Year Treasury Auction
- OpenAI Releases GPT 5.2
- Day 2 Bitcoin MENA UAE, Abu Dhabi
Trump: New Steps in Trade with China, Support for Farmers, and Inflation Message
In his statement, Trump said that a small portion of the revenue from tariffs would be transferred to farmers. He reported that he had met with Chinese President Xi and that China would purchase more soybeans than promised. He emphasized that inflation would fall slightly but that this did not mean deflation. In his speech, he also threatened Canada with heavy tariffs and announced that Nvidia’s H200 products would be allowed to be shipped to China under certain conditions.
The Probability of a Fed Interest Rate Cut in December Rises to 87.3%
CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December is 87.3%. The probability of the rate remaining unchanged stands at 12.7%. The Fed’s decision is expected to be announced on the night of December 11, followed by a press conference with Powell. The market is focused on the acceleration of the rate cut process.
US October PPI Data Postponed to January 2026
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that there was a delay in collecting October PPI data due to funding cuts. Therefore, the October data will not be published and will be announced on January 14, 2026, along with the November 2025 PPI data. The announcement reveals that the government shutdown has affected data continuity. The market believes that the delay in PPI data could complicate inflation analysis.
Hassett Maintains Dovish Stance
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emphasized that it would be irresponsible for the Fed to set a definitive interest rate path for the next six months and that data must be closely monitored. He said Powell successfully coordinated committee members on this week’s rate cut. He also noted that AI investments could create a “positive supply shock” similar to the 1990s tech boom. He stated that this effect could support growth while lowering inflation and potentially causing a significant drop in 10-year bond yields.
US Approves Export of Nvidia H200s to China
The US has approved the export of Nvidia’s H200 and some AI chips to China, while excluding Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin chips. Trump announced that the government would receive a 25% share of the profits from these sales and that the same would apply to AMD and Intel. While the Commerce Department clarified the details of the process, it was noted that President Xi responded positively to the decision. Previous reports had revealed that China was cautious about using these chips due to security concerns.
Supreme Court Warm to Trump’s Moves to Expand Authority
Conservative judges signaled that Trump’s attempt to remove an FTC commissioner could be legal. The court heard arguments for nearly two and a half hours on the appeal of the lower court’s “overreach” ruling. The decision is expected in June 2026. Additionally, in January 2026, the Court will hold another important hearing on Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office.
China’s November Trade Data Shows Strong Recovery
Exports rose 5.9% year-on-year in November, showing a marked improvement over the previous period. Imports also rose by 1.9% year-on-year, while the trade surplus rose to $111.68 billion. The main drivers of growth were a 14.8% increase in exports to the EU and a strong 27.6% increase in exports to Africa. Exports of machinery, electronics, and high-tech products rebounded, while automobile exports rose by 53% year-on-year, attracting attention.
Limited Progress in Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks
Zelensky announced that no agreement had yet been reached on the Donbas issue and that the draft would be sent to the US after the revisions were completed. Ukraine is working to establish a separate security agreement with its Western allies, particularly the US. Regional security advisers will jointly evaluate the latest “peace plan” draft from the US. Disagreements between the US, Ukraine, and Russia over Donbas and territorial concessions are causing the process to move slowly.
Restrictions on Crypto ETF Derivatives Clarified in Japan
The Japanese Financial Services Agency updated its guidance, stating that CFD products linked to unapproved crypto ETFs are inappropriate due to insufficient investor protection. The regulator emphasized that these products effectively fall into the crypto derivatives category and lack risk disclosures. Following this development, IG Securities suspended CFD trading based on US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This situation indicates that it will be difficult for overseas crypto ETF derivatives to be released in Japan in the near term.
Exemption for Stablecoin and Wrapped Token Distribution in Australia
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission announced that it has granted exemptions to institutions that facilitate the secondary distribution of certain stablecoins and wrapped tokens. This step aims to contribute to the regulated expansion of the digital asset ecosystem. With the exemption, intermediaries are temporarily exempt from certain compliance requirements. The regulation could have a supportive effect on the growth of the stablecoin sector in the region.
UAE: Bitcoin Has Become a Key Pillar of Future Finance
Mohammed Al Shamsi, an official from the UAE Ministry of National Security, said that Bitcoin is no longer just a digital asset, but has become an important component of the future financial structure. Noting the acceleration of economic transformation, Al Shamsi drew attention to Bitcoin’s growing importance in the global financial system. His speech at Bitcoin MENA 2025 reinforced the positive regulatory approach in the region. The statements indicate that Bitcoin adoption in the Middle East could accelerate.
US OCC: Crypto Companies Should Be Evaluated the Same Way as Banks
OCC Director Jonathan Gould said that crypto companies applying for a federal bank license should go through the same evaluation process as traditional banks. He noted that crypto asset custody services are not new and that the industry has long been adapting to digital solutions. The OCC, which received 14 new bank applications focused on digital assets this year, emphasized that demand has increased significantly. Gould said the current regulatory framework is sufficient to supervise crypto entities.
Fitch: Ratings of US Banks with High Crypto Exposure May Be Downgraded
Fitch Ratings stated that US banks’ heavy exposure to crypto could increase business model risks and result in rating downgrades. It was noted that while crypto integration offers revenue and efficiency advantages, it carries reputational, liquidity, and compliance risks. It was stated that stablecoin growth could create systemic risks in broad financial areas such as the US Treasury market. Moody’s had previously warned that the proliferation of stablecoins could negatively impact the transmission of U.S. monetary policy.
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin-Backed Banking Attracts Global Capital
Saylor explained that countries could create high-yield digital banking accounts with Bitcoin reserves and tokenized credit instruments. He noted that this model could be attractive in regions such as Japan and Europe, where deposits offer low returns. He stated that in the structure he proposed, loans are highly overcollateralized and additional reserves are held to reduce volatility. He claimed that such products could attract trillions of dollars in capital.
MicroStrategy: Bitcoin to be Held Until at Least 2065
CEO Phong Le stated that the company’s long-term strategy remains unchanged and that Bitcoin will be held until at least 2065. It was emphasized that despite ETFs, MicroStrategy continues to be an important Bitcoin access vehicle for investors. The company continues to position Bitcoin as a strategic store of value. This approach indicates that MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation policy will continue.
Major US Banks to Discuss Crypto Legislation with Senators
The CEOs of Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will meet with senators on Thursday to evaluate crypto market legislation. The meeting is expected to discuss important topics such as interest rates on stablecoins, crypto competition among banks, and preventing illegal use. The meeting was organized by the Financial Services Forum. The banking sector’s stance on crypto regulations may become clearer at this meeting.
US Senator Moreno: Process Stalled on Crypto Bill
Senator Bernie Moreno said discussions on the crypto market structure bill are progressing very slowly and frustratingly. He noted that clarifying the boundaries of authority between the SEC and CFTC is still a matter of debate. Although the House of Representatives has approved its own version, the Senate draft is going through a complex process. Moreno said he did not want to rush and pass a flawed bill.
CFTC Launches BTC-ETH-USDC Collateral Pilot Program
The CFTC has launched a pilot program allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in derivatives markets. Collateral acceptance will be limited to these three assets during the program’s first three months. The agency also revoked its previous tokenized asset guidelines. The pilot program is expected to accelerate the integration of digital assets into the financial infrastructure.
Ripple Executive: XRP Should Learn from Solana in the L1 Competition
Ripple executive Luke Judges said that XRPL must focus on rapid implementation and strong strategy as much as technical capacity to maintain its competitive advantage. He attributed Solana’s success to its “practical engineering and speed” approach. He noted that XRPL has made progress in smart contracts and programmability, but that this needs to be supported by a strong market strategy. The comments suggest that XRP needs a more aggressive roadmap in the new L1 race.
Zcash Founder Joins Anonymous Phone Service Project
An anonymous phone service called Phreeli has launched in the US, requiring only a zip code to register. The project aims to protect user privacy with zero-knowledge proof technology. Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox is involved as an advisor, while payment verifications are performed using the “Double-Blind Armadillo” system. Users can pay for the service with credit cards or privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.
Solana Outperforms All Other Chains in DApp Revenue and DEX Trading Volume
Solana has reportedly surpassed all L1 and L2 networks in 24-hour DApp revenue and DEX volume. This confirms the strong user activity within the Solana ecosystem. The increasing volume supports the widespread adoption of DeFi and gaming applications. This performance reinforces Solana’s leadership in terms of network efficiency and user interest.
Circle Obtains Financial Services License from Abu Dhabi
Circle has earned the right to officially operate in the region with a Financial Services License granted by the Abu Dhabi Global Market. The company has also appointed Dr. Saeeda Jaffar as Vice President for the Middle East and Africa. This move aligns with Circle’s goal of expanding its digital dollar and on-chain payment solutions regionally. The new license significantly strengthens Circle’s presence in the Middle East.
