Global Markets & Crypto Agenda

Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 07.55 am”

Today’s Key Events

• President Trump Attends Mexico Border Defense Medal Ceremony and Christmas Reception
• FOMC Members Williams and Miran to Speak
• US SEC Chairman Atkins to Speak
• SEC Crypto Roundtable Meeting to Take Place
• Strategy BTC Purchase Details to be Announced
• SEI and Starknet Token Unlockings

Divergence Among Officials After Fed Meeting

• Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (will vote in 2026, dove): Expecting inflation to decline next year, Paulson says downside risks in the labor market outweigh upside inflation risks. He believes the impact of tariffs on inflation may weaken by mid-2025 and that current interest rates remain restrictive. Noting that hiring has slowed in some sectors, Paulson argues that December’s rate cut helped ease pressure on employment.
• Cleveland Fed President Hammack (will vote in 2026, hawkish): Supports maintaining a restrictive policy stance for a while longer to keep inflation under control. Assessing the current policy rate as close to neutral, Hammack describes this week’s rate cut decision as a “complex” step reflecting the tension between the Fed’s dual goals (inflation and employment).
• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (will not vote in 2026, dove, dissented in December):

While he anticipates that the number of rate cuts in 2026 could exceed the median in the dot plot, he emphasizes the need for more inflation data before decisions are made. He states that his main reason for opposing the latest rate cut was concern that easing was progressing too quickly. He also stresses that the government’s borrowing costs should not be considered when formulating monetary policy.

• Kansas City Fed President Schmidt (non-voting in 2026, hawkish, dissenting in October and December):

He argues that inflation remains high and monetary policy should remain restrictive. Viewing growth and the labor market as generally balanced, Schmidt states that there is no urgent need for interest rate cuts.

• San Francisco Fed President Daly (will not vote in 2026, neutral): Supporting the December rate cut, Daly says that in an environment where inflation remains high but signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, the Fed must prevent a sharp deterioration in employment.
• “New Fed News Agency” assessment: The latest analysis indicates that Fed officials are divided on whether rate cuts would undermine credibility in the fight against inflation. Schmidt and Goolsbee will relinquish their voting rights next year; Hamak and Logan, who will replace them, are cautious about further easing. Ahead of the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed will receive a delayed series of data releases. According to CME pricing, the probability of an interest rate cut at that meeting is currently below 25%.

Trump Prepares to Select Fed Chair

According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is considering choosing between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett for the Fed chair position, which will begin next year. Trump noted that Warsh is high on his list of candidates, emphasizing that both are strong contenders. In his remarks, he drew attention by stating that the next Fed chair should consult with him before making interest rate decisions. Trump said he would make his decision in the coming weeks. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon had also openly supported Warsh earlier.

H-1B Visa Lawsuit Against the Trump Administration

California, Massachusetts, New York, and several other US states have filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the new $100,000 fee to be imposed on H-1B visa applications. The states argue that this regulation is illegal and effectively creates an entry barrier. It is noted that public employers, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors, will be seriously harmed. The lawsuit also alleges that the executive branch has exceeded the authority granted by Congress. This process is expected to have significant impacts on immigration and the labor market.

China’s November Financial Data Released

• Total Social Financing (TSF): Reached 2.4885 trillion RMB in November. This figure exceeded Wind’s expectation of 2.0191 trillion RMB, while the previous period’s estimate was 816.1 billion RMB.
• New RMB Loans: Announced at 390 billion RMB. Although below Wind’s expectation of 504.3 billion RMB, it exceeded the previous estimate of 220 billion RMB.
• Money Supply Indicators:

– M2 increased by 8.0% year-on-year (market expectation 8.2%, previous 8.2%).

– M1 recorded a 4.9% increase on an annual basis (previous 6.2%).

– M0 showed a 10.6% increase on an annual basis.

Hassett: Fed Independence is Undisputed

Kevin Hassett said that the Fed’s independence must be preserved. He stated that even if nominated by Trump, he would not make interest rate decisions based on political influences. The consensus-based structure of the FOMC was highlighted. Trump had previously stated that he wanted to have a say in interest rate policy. These statements drew attention in the context of a possible presidential scenario.

Bank of Japan Signals Highest Interest Rate in 30 Years

According to the Japanese press, the BOJ is preparing to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. Such a move would mark the highest interest rate level seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and senior officials have signaled openness to a rate hike. Surveys indicate that a majority of policy board members support the increase. Markets will be closely monitored for sudden fluctuations ahead of the final decision.

Reserve Bank of India Rejects Stablecoin Regulations

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will not follow the stablecoin regulations in the US and Europe. RBI Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar emphasized that US dollar-pegged stablecoins, in particular, pose serious risks to monetary sovereignty and financial stability. It was noted that these assets could increase the risk of currency substitution and “dollarization.” The RBI argues that the current payment infrastructure is sufficient. Therefore, the digital rupee (CBDC) remains a priority over private stablecoins.

Citi: US Bond Yield Curve May Steepens

Citigroup strategists expect the US yield curve to steepens due to the impact of short-term bonds. The report stated that short-term interest rates could decline faster than long-term interest rates. The risk of rising unemployment and the Fed’s shift toward a more dovish stance support this expectation. It is noted that the market has largely priced in additional interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. This situation is expected to keep the middle section of the curve relatively stable.

Macron: France Will Continue to Stand by Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his country’s continued support for Ukraine. Macron said that peace is only possible with a lasting structure that protects the security of Ukraine and Europe. It was emphasized that the common goal of the US, Europe, and Ukraine is peace. Attention was drawn to Russia’s continuing attacks. France’s long-term commitment was particularly highlighted.

AMINA Bank Becomes First European Bank to Launch Ripple Payments

Switzerland-based AMINA Bank has become the first European bank to launch Ripple-based cross-border payments. The FINMA-regulated bank is combining blockchain and traditional banking with this integration. Customers will be able to make faster and more efficient transfers within a regulated framework. This step is seen as significant in terms of corporate blockchain adoption. It is considered a potential model for European banking.

Cathie Wood’s Top Three Favorite Crypto Assets

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood revealed the three crypto assets she finds most interesting. She described Bitcoin as a global monetary system and an entry point for institutions. She assessed Ethereum as an infrastructure layer at the institutional level. She noted that Solana stands out with its consumer-focused blockchain structure. This ranking reflects ARK’s long-term vision.

Changpeng Zhao: I Don’t Hold Fiat Currency

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao said he holds almost no fiat currency. He stated that he uses a Visa card linked to crypto for his daily expenses. While acknowledging the volatility of cryptocurrencies, Zhao noted that he can withstand short-term fluctuations. He emphasized that his dependence on the fiat system is very low. The statements were seen as an example of a crypto-centric lifestyle.

Extraordinary General Meeting Decision from MetaPlanet

MetaPlanet announced that it will hold an extraordinary general meeting on December 22. The meeting will discuss a proposal to issue preferred shares. Company management stated that this decision is critical in terms of medium and long-term strategy. The potential issuance could significantly impact the company’s financial structure. Markets are closely monitoring the process.

Eric Trump: No Corruption Issue with Bitcoin

Eric Trump said Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million makes it unique. He emphasized that, unlike commodities such as gold, its supply cannot be expanded. Bitcoin’s ease of transfer was highlighted as a global advantage. He stated that there is no risk of corruption because it has no central administration. The statements support Bitcoin’s fundamental narrative.

Juventus Owner Rejects Tether’s Purchase Offer

Juventus’s main shareholder, Exor, unanimously rejected Tether’s purchase offer. Tether had sought to acquire 65.4% of the club’s shares at €2.66 per share. The offer valued Juventus at approximately €1 billion. If accepted, an additional €1 billion investment was planned. Uncertainty persists following the rejection.

UK: Aiming for Global Leadership in Crypto

UK Cities Minister Lucy Rigby said the country could become a leader in the crypto field. It was stated that the government aims to bring clarity to the sector with new regulations. The goal is to make the UK an attractive hub for crypto companies. Regulatory stability was emphasized for long-term planning. The statements were reported by the FT.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Reserves Exceed 7,500 BTC

El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserves have surpassed the 7,500 BTC level. The reserve accumulation carries potential for financial participation and investment attraction. However, risks are also emerging in terms of agreements with the IMF. The Bitcoin policy remains controversial for the country’s economy. International circles are closely monitoring the process.

Citi: Non-Farm Employment Could Create More Contradictions

According to Citigroup, the upcoming US non-farm employment data could send mixed signals. While a loss of 45,000 jobs is expected for October, an increase of 80,000 is forecast for November. It is noted that this recovery could be due to seasonal effects. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.52%. The data is considered decisive for Fed policy.