Market Performance
On the crypto side, BTC held steady at $114,400 (+0.33%), while ETH fell to $4,139 (-0.12%). US stock markets traded positively: Dow +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.30%, S&P 500 +0.41%, and Russell 2000 +0.05%. On the bond side, the 2-year yield fell to 3.6063%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.1483%. The DXY fell 0.11% to 97.82, while the VIX rose 0.99% to 16.28. On the commodities front, Brent fell 1.40% to $66.15, while gold rose 0.65% to $3,857.82.
U.S. Government Shutdown Risk and Labor Data
August JOLTS job openings came in slightly above expectations at 722,700. Although there were notable declines in construction and federal government, the overall picture is stable. However, with the rejection of the Democrats’ funding bill in the Senate, the U.S. government shutdown is now certain. As of September 30, federal agencies have shut down and approximately 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed. This shutdown will also delay the release of critical data such as nonfarm payrolls, weekly jobless claims, and CPI. Trump threatened irreversible layoffs and cuts during the shutdown to pressure Democrats.
US Government Reopening Efforts
Senate Republican leader John Thune announced on Wednesday that a vote would be held to reopen the government. Thune expressed optimism that the budget impasse could be overcome with more Democratic support. However, with no agreement reached, the U.S. government is officially shut down; many operations, except for essential federal services, have been suspended. Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries emphasized that Trump and Republicans have deepened the crisis over healthcare policies, but they remain ready to cooperate for a bipartisan solution.
Diverging Views at the Fed
Boston Fed President Collins (2025 voter, neutral): Pointing to weakness in the labor market, she said further rate cuts may be appropriate, but also highlighted inflation risks.
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (2025 voter, hawkish): Stated that risks are two-sided between inflation and the labor market, and did not take a clear stance on an October cut. He said he expects unemployment to rise slightly this year and fall in 2026.
According to CME data, the probability of an interest rate cut in October has risen to 97%.
Pfizer-Trump Drug Price Agreement
Pfizer has reached an agreement with the Trump administration to lower drug prices in exchange for tariff exemptions. The company will bring Medicaid prices to developed country levels and apply “Most Favored Nation” pricing for new drugs. It will also join a new drug sales platform called TrumpRx. This plan will take effect in 2026. Pfizer plans to invest $70 billion in R&D and manufacturing in the US.
Economic Data from China
In August, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, recovering from 49.4. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0, a slight increase from the previous 50.3. This picture indicates that economic activity in China is slowly beginning to recover.
Possible Investigation into Gary Gensler
A investigation may be launched into former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler for deleting official messages during his tenure. Republicans claim that Gensler applied double standards in record-keeping, imposing over $400 million in fines on financial institutions in 2023 while failing to ensure compliance within his own agency. Due to an automatic policy of the SEC’s IT department, Gensler’s government phone was completely wiped between October 2022 and September 2023. There are concerns that some sanctions against crypto companies during this period may also have been deleted from the records.
Security Issue in Solana Treasury and BNB Chain
According to data, 18 Solana treasury entities hold a total of 20.9M SOL ($4.37B), of which 59.6% (12.5M SOL) is staked. This signifies a long-term commitment to trust within the Solana ecosystem. Meanwhile, the official English Twitter account of the BNB Chain was hacked, and authorities warned users about fake links.
TOKEN2049 – Stablecoin and Payment Transformation
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla, and Rob Hadick from Dragonfly said that stablecoins have reached 500 million users and have become an independent currency in emerging markets. 35% of USDT is used for savings, and 60-70% of transactions occur in stablecoin pairs. It provides financial stability, especially in countries with high inflation such as Turkey, Argentina, and Vietnam.
Warning from Arthur Hayes about Europe
Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes stated that there have been significant capital outflows in Europe, particularly from France. He said that the Eurozone will be forced to print large amounts of money, otherwise it will face the risk of disintegration. Hayes advised investors to exit European assets and turn to Bitcoin and gold.
Crypto Companies and Investments
- Bit Digital announced that it has staked 86% of its ETH assets. It also plans to increase its bond issuance to $135 million and redirect its funds to Ethereum investments.
- Thumzup, linked to the Trump family, will increase DogeHash Technologies’ Dogecoin mining capacity with a $2.5 million investment. With the addition of 500 new ASICs, the total number of miners is expected to exceed 4,000.
SEC Provides Clarity on Crypto Custody
The SEC has allowed investment advisors to store crypto assets in state-chartered trust companies. This provides long-awaited regulatory clarity on digital asset custody. Assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum can now be legally stored through state-authorized trust companies, and there will be no risk of sanctions as long as compliance conditions are met.
Hyperliquid and the DeFi Approach
During a panel at TOKEN2049, Hyperliquid CEO Jeff Yan described DeFi products as “a math problem.” According to him, the main goal is to enable efficient price discovery in the market and build structures where users can trade with confidence.
