Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 87,895.0 | +0.44% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,938.97 | −0.65% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETF | +128.70M | Net Inflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETF | +78.60M | Net Inflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,162.7 | +0.67% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,765.89 | +0.91% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,475.1 | +0.32% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.340 | −0.11% |
| VIX Volatility Index (VIX) | 18.56 | −9.55% |
| U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) | 4.0047 | −0.83% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 62.564 | −0.02% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 4,156.18 | +0.63% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 51.955 | +1.13% |
“Prepared UTC 07.40 am”
Today’s Key Events
- ECB President Lagarde to Speak
- US September Jobless Claims
- US September Core Durable Goods Orders
- US 5-year Treasury auction
- FOMC Beige Book
Trump: Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement Very Close
While Trump says the peace agreement is “very close,” European leaders remain skeptical. The White House stated that there are still sensitive details to be resolved in the text, but that they believe these can be overcome. A US official said Ukraine had accepted the agreement in principle, but negotiations on some articles were continuing. The Ukrainian side also confirmed that agreement was approaching on key points in the Geneva talks. So the political message is optimistic, but the “last mile” negotiations on the text remain critical.
September PPI and Retail Sales Support Interest Rate Cut Expectations
- The US September PPI came in at 2.7% annually, slightly above the 2.6% expectation; the monthly increase was 0.3%, exceeding the 0.2% expectation. Core PPI fell to 2.6% annually, down from the previous 2.9%; the monthly core increase was 0.1%.
- September retail sales rose 0.2% monthly, falling short of the 0.4% expectation; control group sales fell 0.1%, missing the 0.3% expectation. ADP data also pointed to an average weekly job loss of 13,500 over the last four weeks, supporting the slowdown on the growth side.
Fed Spokesperson Nick Timiraos’ Statements
Nick Timiraos’ latest articles suggest a “soft consensus” in the market toward a 25bp cut in December. He emphasizes that the headline inflation rise in the PPI was driven by energy and food, but that the sub-components entering the PCE may be calmer; thus, he says the PCE due on December 5 will be the critical final inflation picture before the December meeting. He also notes that Powell’s close allies opening the door to a cut could make a reduction “palatable” even in a divided committee. However, Nick believes Powell could maintain a hawkish tone at the press conference and raise the bar for “cut once and hold”; this would be a scenario similar to the strategy at the end of 2019.
Statements from Treasury Secretary Bessent
Bessent said the final round of second-stage interviews for the Fed chairmanship is nearing completion and that it is highly likely Trump will announce his nominee before December 25. He stated that the interviews focused particularly on monetary policy, balance sheet management, and the interaction of regulation. He said he interviewed five candidates and that all presented strong profiles. Although Bloomberg reported that Hassett was the frontrunner, White House spokesperson Desai reminded everyone that all discussions were speculation until the decision was announced.
Russia-Ukraine Talks: 28-Point Peace Plan Being Revised
Trump said the 28-point peace plan had been revised with additional contributions from both sides and that “only a few contentious points remain.” He stated that to advance the process, his envoy Volker would meet with Putin in Moscow, while Defense Secretary Driscoll would make contact in Kiev, adding that he himself would meet with Putin and Zelensky in the final stage. While Ukraine has agreed to most of the revised text, it reports that territorial issues remain the most difficult area of negotiation and that Zelensky wants to speak directly with Trump around Thanksgiving. Lavrov warned that if the revised plan does not reflect the “spirit and content” of the Putin-Trump talks, the picture will change completely; in other words, the agreement is still fragile.
Trump-Japan Theme and China-Japan Follow-up After Xi-Trump Meeting
Trump spoke by phone with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after his meeting with Xi; the agenda included the US-Japan alliance and Indo-Pacific security. Takaichi avoided giving clear answers to questions about her controversial remarks in parliament on Taiwan and said she could not provide details. The Chinese side emphasized that the U.S. initiated the meeting and that the atmosphere was positive and constructive, noting that regular contact between the two leaders is critical for stability in relations. Markets are watching this line to see whether China-Japan tensions will ease.
Strategy Transfers 58,390 BTC to Fidelity Custody
Strategy transferred 58,390 BTC to Fidelity Custody over the past two months to reduce its custody dependency on Coinbase. The current value of this amount is reported to be approximately $5.1 billion. According to Arkham, this move is a deliberate diversification to avoid concentrating custody risk in a single institution. Due to Fidelity’s pooled account structure (where customer assets are held together), Strategy’s BTCs are in the same pool as other Fidelity customers’ assets. This keeps the “pool structure” debate alive in terms of transparency and traceability while scaling custody operationally.
Ethena Withdraws 125 Million ENA from Exchanges
Ethena appears to have made large-scale ENA withdrawals from centralized exchanges, with the total withdrawal reaching 125 million ENA. Onchain Lens data indicates that large transfers have been made to new wallets via Coinbase Prime and Bybit. These movements can be interpreted as the Ethena team/associated addresses removing tokens from exchange liquidity for long-term holding or shifting them to different uses. Currently, the relevant wallets are reported to hold a total of 305.15 million ENA, valued at approximately $886.7 million.
20,000 BTC Nominal Value Option Condor Trade on Deribit
On November 25, three large option portfolio trades with a total nominal value of 20,000 BTC were executed via Paradigm. Investors purchased a December 2025-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k “call condor” structure. This strategy functions like a structured long position that seeks price appreciation within a specific band but does not bet on an extreme breakout. Therefore, the market message can be interpreted as “upward expectations exist, but the target range is limited.” The selection of the 100k–118k band points to a strong but controlled upward scenario until the end of the year.
CleanSpark 2025 Fiscal Year Results: 102% Increase in Revenue
CleanSpark increased its revenue by 102% year-on-year to $766.3 million in fiscal year 2025. Net profit was $364.5 million, marking a strong turnaround from last year’s $146 million loss; adjusted EBITDA was $823.4 million. The company completed $1.15 billion in 0% convertible bond financing to expand its electricity and land assets. Management emphasizes its goal of evolving from mining to an “integrated computing power platform for AI and BTC.” As of the end of September, approximately 13,011 BTC ($1.2 billion) and $1.0 billion in working capital holdings support the balance sheet strength.
Jupiter Burned 130 Million JUP, Reduced Unstake Period to 7 Days
Jupiter announced that approximately 130 million JUP were burned in the second phase of the “Fresh Start” program, which was officially implemented after voting. This move aligns with the goal of reducing token supply and tightening the long-term token economy. In line with community feedback, the unstake period has been reduced to 7 days, increasing liquidity flexibility. Jupiter also stated that it will design future “Jupuary” distributions in a more strategic and measured manner. The overall message is to reduce emissions and put decentralized growth on a more sustainable track.
Hassett’s Chances of Becoming Fed Chair at 52% on Polymarket
On Polymarket, under the heading “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?”, the probability assigned to Kevin Hassett has risen to 52%. This implies that the prediction market sees Hassett as the frontrunner among the current pool of candidates. The rise in the odds may reflect both the flow in political circles and the market’s expectations. However, this is not a poll, but a probability priced by risk-taking investors, so it can change rapidly.
Reliance Global Group Sold Its Digital Assets, Switched to Zcash
Reliance Global Group, traded on Nasdaq, announced that it has reorganized its digital asset treasury strategy and selected Zcash as its reserve asset. The company stated that it has allocated the funds obtained by selling the cryptocurrencies in its previous DAT portfolio to ZEC. However, since the reallocated amount has not been disclosed, its size and impact remain unclear for now. The preference for Zcash may reflect a limited but growing interest in privacy-focused assets on the corporate side.
U.S. Bank Tests Private Stablecoin Issuance on Stellar
U.S. Bank, in collaboration with PwC and the Stellar Foundation, has launched a pilot study on private stablecoin issuance on the Stellar network. The bank emphasizes that traditional financial safeguards such as KYC, transaction reversal, and asset recovery are critical in stablecoin design. Stellar’s key advantage is highlighted as functions suitable for corporate requirements such as “asset freezing and transaction reversal.” This test shows that banks are becoming more receptive to controlled stablecoin models on public chains. If successful, corporate stablecoins are expected to become more visible in payment and settlement infrastructures.
