MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
| Assets | Last Price | 24h Change | Dominance | Market Cap. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 93,413.68 | 1.35% | 57.26% | 1,86 T |
| ETH | 3,249.13 | 0.34% | 11.99% | 390,62 B |
| XRP | 2.273 | 1.10% | 4.01% | 130,73 B |
| SOLANA | 186.26 | 0.02% | 2.78% | 90,45 B |
| DOGE | 0.3252 | 1.33% | 1.47% | 48,02 B |
| CARDANO | 0.9207 | 3.72% | 0.99% | 32,32 B |
| TRX | 0.2396 | -0.75% | 0.63% | 20,66 B |
| AVAX | 36.73 | 2.60% | 0.46% | 15,02 B |
| LINK | 19.90 | 2.55% | 0.39% | 12,65 B |
| SHIB | 0.00002134 | 3.25% | 0.38% | 12,53 B |
| DOT | 6.594 | 1.05% | 0.31% | 10,09 B |
*Prepared on 1.10.2025 at 14:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Growth in the US
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Expectation 164K Announced: 256K
US Unemployment Rates: Expected: 4.2% Announced: 4.1%
Non-farm payrolls data, which is critical for monetary policy, were released in the US. Non-farm employment in the country increased by 256 thousand in December, well above expectations. According to the data, the unemployment rate was recorded as 4.1 percent in the same period. Economists participating in the Bloomberg survey expected the increase to be 165 thousand. In Bloomberg’s survey, unemployment expectation was determined as 4.2 percent.
FTX Credit Distribution Update
According to email information shared by FTX creditor Sunil, Kraken has started sending emails to customers who have successfully completed the account unification and verification process as an FTX debt distribution platform. Similarly, BitGo may also take part in this process. While an exact timeline for debt distribution has not been announced, debts under USD 50,000 are scheduled to be processed within 60 days from January 3, 2025. For debts over USD 50,000, a timeline has not yet been announced.
Bitcoin Mining Companies Listed in the US
According to December 2024 data, Bitcoin mining companies listed in the US accounted for 25.3% of global computing power. Over the same period, the Bitcoin price increased by 15%, while network computing power grew by 6.5%. This boosted mining profitability, with average daily revenue for miners reaching USD 59,585 per exahash (EH), up 7.1% month-on-month.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
Time News Previous
15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) 74.0 74.
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations
MARKET COMPASS
The highly anticipated US labor market statistics for December were released today and the data revealed a better-than-expected economic picture. Following this data set, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (FED) may further slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, the dollar appreciated, Wall Street index futures declined and bond yields rose as a first effect. The yield on the US 30-year note climbed to its highest level since November 2023 (5%), while 10-year yields rose as high as 4.789% at the time of this report. Digital assets declined after the publication of these indicators.
Expectations regarding Trump’s policies and the Fed’s rate cut path continue to play a decisive role in pricing behavior. After the employment data, we can say that the importance of the inflation indicators to be published next week has increased a little more. Increased perception that the FED has started rate cuts too early and made a mistake may further reduce the willingness to take risks, which may herald a period in which fundamental dynamics may change permanently. For now, we do not change our long-term expectation with the variables mentioned below, but we think it would be useful to review our equation after next week’s inflation data. For the short term, we believe that the pressure on digital assets may continue for a while and then stabilize. The pressure may extend to the end of the week and the first trading days of next week.
From the short term to the big picture.
The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US and the emergence of BTC as a reserve continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Although it is expected to continue at a slower pace, the preservation of expectations that the FED will continue its interest rate cut cycle and the volume in crypto asset-based ETFs indicating an increase in institutional investor interest support our upward forecast for the big picture for now. In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that we think the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
While leaving behind a quiet day for the crypto market, the focus of the market was on the macro data of Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rates. In contrast to the non-farm payrolls data, which was announced as 256K, well above expectations, the unemployment rate was announced as 4.1%, below expectations. Bitcoin fell more than $2000 after the data came out.
When we look at the technical outlook after the macroeconomic data, BTC, which pushed the 95,000 major resistance level during the day, retreated sharply towards the 92,800-support level after the data. While technical oscillators continue to signal buying in BTC, which is currently trading at 93,100, the momentum indicator weakening in the negative zone draws attention. If there is a recovery in the price with the effect of the news, we will follow the test of the 95,000 level, which is the resistance level again. After the last trading day of the week, it may catch an uptrend with the breakthrough in Bitcoin at the weekend. . In case the retreat deepens, 92,800 appears as a critical support zone.
Supports 92,800 – 91,700 – 90,000
Resistances 95,000 – 97,200 – 99,100
ETH/USDT
A careful analysis of Ethereum’s recent price movements shows that the price is trading in a consolidated structure and a short-term downtrend is effective. However, market dynamics have been volatile due to both global economic data and investor behavior. After gaining 3,293 levels in yesterday’s price action, ETH has lost this support again today with a serious decline after the US non-farm employment data came above expectations.
As mentioned in the morning analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator continues its negative divergence. This negative divergence requires the 3,320 level to be exceeded in order for the price to regain strength. With the recent decline, the RSI has turned down again, confirming the market weakness. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator continues to move horizontally in the negative zone. The fact that no significant capital outflows have been observed in CMF indicates that the market is not completely under the control of the bears, but it shows an environment where buyers are not yet effective. Violation of the Tenkan level is considered as a negative signal in the short-term outlook.
However, despite this negative picture, the fact that the CMF did not show a dramatic decline and the momentum did not give a clear downward trend keeps the market’s recovery potential alive. If the 3,320 level is exceeded, the possibility of Ethereum displaying a bullish outlook over the weekend may strengthen. The 3,131 level stands out as the most critical support zone in the current situation. If this level is broken downwards, it seems likely that selling pressure will increase and deeper declines will be experienced.
Supports 3,131 – 3,033 – 2,901
Resistances 3,292 – 3,382 – 3,510
XRP/USDT
While XRP started to display a positive outlook with the pins it left below the 2.25 level in recent days, it experienced a slight pullback with the pressure on the general market caused by the non-farm employment data released today.
In technical analysis, it is observed that this retracement took place up to the 2.25 level, which corresponds to the lower band of the kumo cloud on the Ichimoku indicator. With the purchases in this critical support zone, the XRP price has reacted upwards again. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a slight downward trend with the decline, indicating that the momentum of the price is weakening. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains in negative territory. However, it is not showing any significant weakness, indicating that the market is not completely under the control of sellers. This stable structure of CMF can be considered as a sign that the price may move upwards by maintaining strong support levels.
In light of the current data, the price has the potential to retest and gain the 2.32 level as long as it does not break below the 2.25 level. However, daily closes below the 2.25 level may turn the market outlook negative and trigger a decline towards lower support zones. Therefore, it is of great importance for traders to closely monitor this level.
Supports 2.2525 – 2.1800 – 2.0201
Resistances 2.3236 – 2.4702 – 2.6180
“XRPUSDT Image to be Added”
SOL/USDT
Active addresses have increased by 1.5 million since the beginning of the year, pointing to optimism. However, there is still no concrete support to drive price action. However, Open Interest data shows that it has fallen by 13% in the last 4 days. This could mean that Solana may not see much support in the overall decline of the crypto market.
Strong employment data from the US may strengthen the dollar. This could create short-term selling pressure on cryptocurrencies. Solana price rebounded after breaking below support levels. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) broke the 200 EMA (Black Line) to the downside. This may increase the selling pressure. The asset has started to work the resistance of the downtrend that started on November 23 as support. On the other hand, it also broke the downtrend that has been in place since January 6. However, it is currently testing the upper level of the downtrend as support due to the non-farm payrolls data. These may be the beginning of a rise. When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is in the negative zone, but money inflows have started to increase. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 indicator entered an upward trend from the oversold level. The 222.61 level appears as a very strong resistance level in the rises due to today’s non-farm employment data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the 181.75 support level may be triggered. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 189.54 – 181.75 – 163.80
Resistances 200.00 – 209.93 – 222.61
“SOLUSDT Image to be Added”
DOGE/USDT
Strong employment data from the US may strengthen the dollar. This could create short-term selling pressure on cryptocurrencies. Looking at the chart, the asset moved horizontally, breaking the downtrend that has been going on since January 7. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This may create bearish pressure. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator is in negative territory and money inflows and outflows seem to have stabilized. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 has broken out of the oversold zone. The price continues to be below both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA. This may increase the selling pressure. The 0.42456 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend due to both political reasons and innovations in the DOGE coin. In case of possible pullbacks due to macroeconomic reasons or negativities in the ecosystem, the 0.28164 level, which is the base level of the trend, is an important support. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.
Supports 0.28164 – 0.25025 – 0.21154
Resistances 0.33668 – 0.36600 – 0.42456
“DOGEUSDT Image to be Added”
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
