The Expected Rise in Bitcoin Has Not Occurred
Bitcoin, the largest and most recognized player in the cryptocurrency markets, has failed to achieve the anticipated price increase despite the time elapsed since the last halving event. Recently, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of around 10%, dropping to the level of $57,200, which has raised concerns among investors. The fact that it has not reached a new peak for the longest period after the halving is striking. High-interest rates and supply pressures are among the factors negatively affecting Bitcoin’s price performance. Here are the details on this topic…
Why Has Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Been Delayed?
Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has exhibited significant price increases following each halving event, as miners’ rewards are reduced. Previous halving cycles have led to upward trends that propelled Bitcoin to new record levels. However, this time the situation is following a different course. As we previously reported on Kriptokoin.com, Outlier analysts have also pointed out this change. Since the fourth halving, Bitcoin’s price has been mostly moving horizontally. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of new investors into the market contributed to Bitcoin reaching record levels prior to the halving.
During halving periods, accumulation phases usually occur, while long-term investors (LTH) have chosen to realize their profits especially when Bitcoin reached the $73,000 level this year. This creates a different model compared to previous halving cycles. Additionally, significant developments causing supply pressures, such as payments to Mt. Gox creditors and the German government’s release of seized Bitcoins into the market, have added an extra burden on the market.
Will There Be a Rise in BTC Again?
Leading crypto analyst Crypto Rover believes that the current stagnation is temporary. According to his analyses, Bitcoin may signal an upcoming price breakout by establishing a strong resistance level. Based on Rover’s predictions derived from the halving chart, the current market conditions indicate that Bitcoin could soon break out of this horizontal trend and potentially rise between $100K and $120K. Click here for details.
Bitcoin is struggling to stay above $60,000; however, this does not paint an entirely negative picture. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s unrealized losses have reached 2.9% of its market value. The combined situation of Unrealized Gains and Unrealized Losses shows that gains are six times higher than losses. However, short-term investors (STH) who have held crypto for less than 155 days are experiencing a significant portion of unrealized losses. Although these losses are not at extreme levels yet, if further declines occur, significant sales from this group may be seen.
Some of the Bitcoins purchased at record levels in March have transitioned to the long-term investor group. This creates the impression that the market has entered the “bear market” phase. Whether Bitcoin has reached its peak for this cycle or will show another rise remains uncertain. However, many investors are questioning whether now is one of the worst times to give up on Bitcoin. Additionally, discussions continue on whether another rise is near.
