Bitcoin Hits New Record Amid Regulatory Optimism

BÚSSOLA DO MERCADO

New Record from BTC

• In global markets, the decline in tensions over trade wars and growing optimism that regulations for digital assets will soon be approved in the US helped Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, to set a new record. Altcoins also followed a parallel rise.
• Democrats in the US Congress have stopped opposing a bill aimed at regulating stablecoins, paving the way for the bill to be passed by the end of the week. This is perceived as a factor that could accelerate further adoption of digital assets.
• In addition, institutional investor interest, which remained buoyant during the recent market turbulence caused by tariffs, has been instrumental in accelerating cash flows into the sector.
• In traditional markets, on the other hand, concerns over the “fiscal deficit”, which started with the credit rating agency Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating, continue to weigh on asset prices. Concerns over the ability of the world’s largest economy to service its debt led to a continued rise in long-term bond yields.
• Developments regarding President Trump’s tax cut bill, which is expected to lead to further deterioration in the US fiscal situation, are closely monitored in this context. It is rumored that the bill could be voted on as soon as today.
• Although Wall Street index futures pointed to a slightly positive opening today after yesterday’s negative closures, concerns about the “US fiscal situation” are weighing on European stock markets.
• Major digital assets, which managed to stay away from the “risk off” mode in traditional markets with regulatory expectations and institutional concerns, will follow the US macro data flow, which may be important for global markets later in the day. Although we are concerned about short-term rallies, we see that the recent momentum has created a basis for pricing in line with our expectations for the medium and long term.
• We believe that there is a risk that the gains recorded will be quickly given back if the news flows related to regulations are delayed and the global climate continues the last negative picture. Therefore, we believe that spot positioning for the long term is correct, but leveraged long term positioning is now risky.

Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released on a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A below-forecast reading is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.

Digital Compass

In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, we have already seen that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and that the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Taking into account the latest developments on a global scale, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.

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AVISO LEGAL

As informações, comentários e recomendações sobre investimentos contidos neste documento não constituem serviços de consultoria de investimentos. Os serviços de consultoria de investimento são prestados por instituições autorizadas em caráter pessoal, levando em conta as preferências de risco e retorno dos indivíduos. Os comentários e recomendações contidos neste documento são de caráter geral. Essas recomendações podem não ser adequadas à sua situação financeira e às suas preferências de risco e retorno. Portanto, tomar uma decisão de investimento com base apenas nas informações contidas neste documento pode não resultar em resultados que estejam de acordo com suas expectativas.