BÚSSOLA DO MERCADO
FOMC Aftermath…
- As expected, the US Federal Reserve (FED) kept interest rates and its expectations for the interest rate cut path unchanged but revised down its economic growth expectations and upward its inflation expectations in the shadow of uncertainties over tariffs.
- The “slight positive effect” brought by Fed Chairman Powell’s statements did not last long and futures contracts of Wall Street indices point to a negative opening. Indices in Europe, where the decisions of major central banks are monitored, also turned negative.
- The FED’s revisions to its economic projections pointed to the risk of recession and stagflation. The yield on the US 10-year bond declined following demand driven by risk-averse behavior. The decline in the yield on this bond, which we see as an important indicator for price changes in digital assets, may continue to put pressure on cryptocurrencies.
- Russia and Ukraine have continued their mutual offensives, amidst the optimism brought by the recent agreement proposed by the United States. Meanwhile, in a phone call, Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky reportedly agreed to work together to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. Israel’s attacks on Gaza continue.
- President Trump’s tariff threats continue. Finally, Donald Trump said that India will be affected by similar tariffs from Abril 2.
If we make an assessment specific to today by maintaining our expectation that digital assets may be pressured by the risks we see for the medium term, we anticipate that this pressure may continue under the shadow of macro and geopolitical developments. The increased appetite in parallel with yesterday’s news that the SEC dropped the Ripple case was affected by the changes in risk perception in traditional markets and formed the basis of the decline as mentioned above. In the rest of the day, we may see (Sexta-feira, Março 21) – Quadruple witching refers to the simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts for stock options, index futures and index futures options four times a year. In fact, it is now called “triple witching”. This is because single stock futures, the fourth type of contract included in quadruple witching, have not been traded in the US since 2020. This period occurs on the third Sexta-feira of Março, Junho, Setembro and Dezembro. In the markets, volatility and volume increase on triple witching days, especially towards the end of the session… This is why it is closely monitored by investors.
Compass
We consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda in the US, the locomotive of the world economy. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep this in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that we may continue to see pressure in the medium term if there is no new news flow to create enthusiasm in the market and if concerns about slowing economic activity in global markets increase further. We emphasize that there is no problem with spot asset accumulation, but caution should be exercised in leveraged “long” transactions. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and Trump’s actions on tariffs, which may keep volatility high.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | Notícias | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 224K | 220K |
| 12:30 | US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | 8.8 | 18.1 |
| 14:00 | US Existing Home Sales (Feb) | 3.95M | 4.08M |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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The investment information, comments and recommendations contained in this document do not constitute investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are provided by authorized institutions on a personal basis, taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained in this document are of a general type. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based only on the information contained in this document may not result in results that are in line with your expectations.
