Geopolitics and Rate Cuts Shape Crypto Outlook

Market Compass

Digital Assets

• White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt announced that US President Donald Trump will make his decision on whether to attack Iran within two weeks, given the high likelihood that negotiations with Iran will take place. There had previously been talk that the US could strike as soon as this weekend.
• European and Iranian officials are preparing to meet in Geneva for the first high-level meeting since the start of the war.
• European Union Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said progress was being made in the ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States.
• In addition to these two main dynamics shaping global markets, another important variable, the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve (FED), we have seen that officials continue to predict two interest rate cuts for this year.
• On the last working day of the week, we see that the negative sentiment has dissipated somewhat with the news that Trump will not rush to attack Iran. However, we do not ignore that the geopolitical agenda may continue to disturb the markets in the coming weeks.

By softening our expectation that digital assets may have difficulty in rising for the short term, we think that upward reaction movements may come during the day. For the medium and long term, we partially change our “upside view” to “flat” for the medium term. The main determinant of this change in our view is our expectation that the revived geopolitical risks will remain on the agenda of the markets for a while. For the long term, we see no reason to change our bullish outlook.

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