Market Compass
The Difficult Period Continues…
Last week was a relatively busy period for markets deprived of critical macro indicators due to the US government shutdown. As expected, we saw the US Federal Reserve (FED) cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points. The eagerly awaited Trump-Xi meeting also took place. In addition, we received the quarterly balance sheets of major American companies. All of this actually came as the markets wanted. But not quite…
We can interpret the FED’s rate cut as a “hawkish rate cut.” This is because Powell specifically emphasized that a new rate cut is not guaranteed. Although positive messages emerged from the Trump-Xi meeting, we understand that more water needs to flow under the bridge. Furthermore, although the geopolitical agenda has receded somewhat with the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the US government remains closed off, and we will see the negative effects of this in the coming period. In other words, the negative trend, combined with ” good-but-not-great news,” continues to cast a dark shadow over digital assets.
Next week, we will see several macro indicators. These will provide clues about the health of the US economy and may offer insights into the Fed’s next move. We will elaborate on these data. Additionally, the US midterm elections, Trump’s tariffs, and developments that could lead to the reopening of the government will be under our close scrutiny.
Major digital assets have not made much progress in their recovery efforts following the shock of October 10. We attribute this to a distorted market sentiment and continue to argue that a new catalyst is needed for a healthy uptrend. While maintaining our bullish outlook for the long term, we can say that we expect to see “interim corrections that will not go unpunished” next week.
November 4 – Trump’s First Election Test
Assuming the government remains shut down and key data such as non-farm payrolls will not be released, the first major test for the markets and Trump will be on November 4. The US midterm elections include gubernatorial and state legislature elections in some states, as well as mayoral races.
Investors view the upcoming votes as an indication of whether Americans approve of the policies Trump has implemented so far. In other words, the November elections will reveal how much the public embraces Trump’s policy choices and will also serve as a response to his second term. The races in New Jersey and Virginia, in particular, will be closely watched. The November 2025 elections will be seen not only as a midterm election but also as a test for Trump.
November 5 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
It shows the estimated change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding the agricultural sector and government, by analyzing payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain estimates of employment growth by Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP). It usually gives a hint of employment growth 2 days before the employment data released by the government. Usually, lower-than-expected ADP data has a positive impact on digital assets. Since we are currently in a period when official figures cannot be published, this indicator may be slightly more prominent for the markets and may lead to a greater market reaction than usual.
Other Important Macroeconomic Indicators and Developments
November 3 – ISM Manufacturing PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the first business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
**Tentative – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Shows the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the agricultural sector. This JOLTS data is closely monitored as job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It is released monthly and approximately 35 days after the end of the month. A lower-than-expected release is expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
November 5 – ISM Services PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers excluding the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the third business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Services PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
**Tentative – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (NFP); Following the September NFP data, which was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US, the October NFP data, scheduled for release on November 7, is also not expected to be published.
November 7 – US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment; This is a survey conducted by the University of Michigan (UoM) with approximately 420 consumers, asking respondents to assess the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity. It has two cycles, 14 days apart, called Preliminary and Revised. The “Preliminary” is usually relatively more influential on prices and is published monthly in the middle of the current month. If the actual data comes in below expectations, it can have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
**Important Notice Regarding US Data
Due to the current US government shutdown, the release of several key economic data from the agencies has been impacted. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Census Bureau, and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) may be un , delayed, or postponed. Affected data may include, but is not limited to, the Employment Situation Report, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Agricultural reports.
Important Economic Calendar Data
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Information
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Darkex cannot be held responsible for any changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for possible changes in the content and timing of data releases.
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