Crypto Market Weekly Analysis

Weekly Fundamental Analysis Report – Ağustos 08

Korku ve Açgözlülük Endeksi

Kaynak: Alternatif

• Change in Fear and Greed Value: +9
• Last Week Level: 65 (Greed)
• This Week’s Level: 74 (Greed)

The Fear and Greed Index rose from 65 to 74 this week, signaling a marked strengthening in investor sentiment. As we entered the week, non-farm payrolls data released in the US last week came in below expectations, reinforcing the perception that the Fed is closer to a rate cut in Eylül. With this weak data, Treasury bond yields fell and demand for risky assets increased. In the middle of the week, Fed members, especially San Francisco Fed President Daly’s statements pointing out that inflation continued to decline and signs of slowdown in economic activity increased, further strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in the markets. On the other hand, although the US’s imposition of new tariffs caused a short-lived global unease, Apple’s $100 billion investment plan and the performance of companies such as Amazon and Tesla, which exceeded expectations, supported the rise in technology stocks. In the cryptocurrency market, the new decree allowing pension funds in the US to invest in Bitcoin triggered the expectation that institutional demand could increase. With this development, Bitcoin approached the $ 117,000 level, while Ethereum and other altcoins also recovered. As a result, expectations of an interest rate cut, strong corporate balance sheets and positive steps towards the crypto market strengthened investor sentiment and the Fear and Greed Index ended the week on an upward note.

Fon Akışları

Kaynak CoinShares

Overview The crypto market has entered a period of declining strength due to negative developments such as increased macroeconomic uncertainties, lack of stability in tariffs and weakening expectations of interest rate cuts in talks with the Fed. In particular, US President Donald Trump’s signing of a decree on Ağustos 7, which facilitated the inclusion of private assets in pension funds, has caused a stir on the markets.

Ethereum (ETH): Spot ETH continued to perform strongly on the back of institutional interest and fund inflows. This week, $133.9 million flowed into Ethereum.

Ripple (XRP): The approval and launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) opened up access to XRP for institutional investors. Fund inflows in Xrp this week amounted to $31.3 million.

Solana (SOL): Recent ETF news continued at Solana. Solana saw inflows of $8.8 million.

Cardano (ADA): The Cardano Foundation continues to do auditable strategic work at the institutional level. This week Cardano saw inflows of $1.3 million.

Other: Altcoins saw sectoral and project-based rallies. These attacks led to a $7.3 million inflow in fund flow data.

Short Bitcoin: Outflows into short bitcoin positions totaled $1.9 million.

Fon Çıkışları:

Bitcoin (BTC): Outflows from Bitcoin-focused funds totaled $404 million this week.

SUI: Digital asset bank Sygnum began offering trading and custody services on its platform by integrating SUI, the token of the Sui blockchainSui saw outflows totaling $0.8 million this week.

Litecoin (LTC): Total outflows on the LTC coin reached $1.2 million.

Çoklu varlık: ETF verilerine rağmen çoklu varlık grubunda çıkışlar gözlenmiştir.

Toplam Piyasa Değeri

Kaynak Tradingview

• Last Week Market Capitalization: 66 trillion Dollars
• Market Capitalization This Week: 83 trillion Dollars

The cryptocurrency market recorded an increase of 4.43% in total market capitalization with a capital inflow of approximately 170 billion dollars this week. With this movement, the total market capitalization reached 3.82 trillion dollars. During the week, the market capitalization rose to $3.85 trillion, attempting to reach a new peak, but this attempt failed. In the light of these developments, we see that last week’s decline is not permanent and the market continues its upward trajectory.

Toplam 2

The Total 2 index started the week with a market capitalization of $1.38 trillion. With the 8% increase during the week, it increased its value to 1.5 trillion dollars with an appreciation of approximately 110 billion dollars. This shows that it is still technically possible to set a new record in the total 2 market if a rise of about 13% is realized.

Toplam 3

The Total 3 index entered the week with a market capitalization of 961 billion dollars. With an appreciation of approximately 67 billion dollars during the week, it pulled the index to the level of 1.03 trillion dollars with an increase of 7%. With these developments, Total 3 is 13% away from its all-time high.

In this week when all indices were positive, Ethereum showed the strongest stance. When the rises are evaluated and the indices are compared, it can be said that the share of the altcoin market in the total market has generally made a good expansion under the Ethereum roof this week.

Altcoin Sezon Endeksi

Source: Coinmarketcap

• Last Week Index Value: 35/100
• Index Value This Week: 39/100

Between Ağustos 4 and Ağustos 8, 2025, the correlation between the market capitalization of altcoins (Altcoin Market Cap) and the Altcoin Season Index showed a decline. The chart shows that this week, the index peaked at 39 between Ağustos 4 and Ağustos 8, with the Altcoin Market Cap reaching 1.54T. This indicates a temporary decline in the market dominance of altcoins. The index rose to 42 on Ağustos 5, but entered a downtrend and retreated to 39. This move suggests that the altcoin season has weakened after a brief potential revival and that the total market capitalization of altcoins has experienced a relative decline compared to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Hakimiyeti

Bitcoin Hakimiyeti

Bitcoin dominance, which started the week at 62.15%, declined throughout the week and is currently at 61.03%.

This week, Strategy bought 21,021 Bitcoin, Metaplanet bought 463 Bitcoin, Smarter Web bought 225 Bitcoin and The Blockchain Group, Europe’s first Bitcoin treasury, bought 62 Bitcoin.

Data on Bitcoin spot ETFs show a total net outflow of $157.1 million to date.

Trump signed decrees making it easier to include private assets in 401(k) pension funds and eliminating practices that prevent crypto companies from working with banks. These positive developments on the US side led to an increase in risk appetite, especially among retail investors, and increased buying in spot ETFs. In addition, inflows have also continued on the institutional investor front.

Recent developments have led to increased capital inflows not only to Bitcoin but also to Ethereum and other altcoins. This week, Ethereum and other altcoins diverged by outperforming Bitcoin. This further strengthens the expectation of a decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance, with Bitcoin dominance expected to consolidate in the 59% – 61% band next week.

Ethereum Hakimiyeti

Kaynak: Tradingview

Haftalık Değişim

• Last Week’s Level: 11.54%
• This Week’s Level: 12.38%

Ethereum dominance, which rose as high as 10% as of the second week of Haziran, failed to cross this critical threshold and retreated to 8.60%. However, finding support at these levels, the dominance regained a positive momentum and exhibited a steady upward trend and exceeded the 12% level.

Accordingly, while Ethereum dominance ended last week at 11.54%, it is trading at around 12.38% as of current data.

In the same period, Bitcoin dominance, unlike Ethereum, followed a negative course and showed a downward trend.

Looking at the key developments affecting Ethereum dominance, the Ethereum Foundation has taken important steps towards L1 scalability. Accordingly, Marius van der Wijden was appointed as co-lead, the gas limit was increased to 45 million, the data history deletion feature was implemented, and the evaluation of BALs for the Glamsterdam upgrade began. In addition, real-time proof work on zkEVM technology is progressing rapidly and the recruitment process for the performance engineering director position is ongoing. On the corporate side, Nasdaq-listed Cosmos Health announced that it signed a $300 million securities purchase agreement in line with its new Ethereum treasury strategy. On the other hand, SharpLink (SBET), also listed on Nasdaq, successfully completed a $200 million private funding round at a price of $19.50 per share. This funding will be used to expand the company’s Ethereum vault. SharpLink’s strategy is to make Ethereum the global financial infrastructure by accumulating and staking ETH and increasing the amount of ETH per share.

There have also been notable developments on the institutional buying side. Last week, SharpLink Gaming purchased 83,561 ETH between Temmuz 28 and Ağustos 3, bringing its total Ethereum reserve to 521,939 ETH. According to Solid Intel data, GameSquare purchased 2,717 Ethereum for $10 million, bringing its total ETH holdings to 15,630. Ether Machine, on the other hand, purchased 10,605 units of ETH at an average price of $3,781, bringing its total reserve to 345,362 ETH. Finally, Cumberland withdrew 36,918 ETH (about $132.8 million) on Coinbase, while Abraxas Capital bought 7,191 ETH (about $25.9 million) on the Binance exchange, according to The Data Nerd.

Bitcoin Spot ETF

NetFlow Status: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $963 million between Ağustos 01-07, 2025. The largest outflow of the week was recorded on Ağustos 01 with $812.3 million. In particular, $331.4 million net outflows from Fidelity’s FBTC ETF and $327.9 million net outflows from ARK’s ARKB ETF on Ağustos 01, 2025, and $292.2 million net outflows from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF on Ağustos 04, 2025. In this process, after 3 trading days of intense outflows, positive net inflows were seen in the last 2 trading days.

Bitcoin Price: Bitcoin, which started at $ 115,764 on Ağustos 01, closed at $ 117,472 on Ağustos 07. In this process, BTC gained 1.48% on a weekly basis. Especially in this period, with the recovery seen in the last 2 days, Bitcoin price gained upward momentum again.

Cumulative Net Inflows: At the end of the 394th trading day of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, total cumulative net inflows decreased to $54 billion. Especially the strong outflows on the first 2 consecutive days of this period were decisive in this decline.

Ethereum price opened at $3,698 on Ağustos 01, 2025 and closed at $3,910 on Ağustos 07, 2025. In this process, Ethereum price gained 5.73%. The strong recovery following the sharp price drop seen in this process reveals that investors are using the price drop as a buying opportunity. The fact that the price has risen above $3,900 again reflects a positive expectation in the market despite ETF outflows. In general, the Ethereum ETF market entered a short-term correction with net outflows during this period. However, the resumption of net inflows in the last three trading days and the upward trend of the price show that the recovery signals have come early. If institutional demand gains momentum again, the Ethereum price may create a more solid support ground in the coming period.

Ethereum spot ETF

Between Ağustos 01 and Ağustos 07, 2025, Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows totaling $286.7 million. The strongest outflow on a daily basis occurred on Ağustos 04 with $465.1 million. BlackRock’s ETHA ETF attracted attention with a weekly outflow of $ 149.3 million. As of Ağustos 01, the positive net flow series that lasted 20 trading days ended. In this process, a total of 617.4 million dollars in the first two trading days. The total cumulative net inflow of Spot Ethereum ETFs at the end of the 262nd trading day fell to $ 9.37 billion. This indicated that short-term pressures temporarily weakened corporate confidence.

Ethereum price opened at $3,698 on Ağustos 01, 2025 and closed at $3,910 on Ağustos 07, 2025. In this process, Ethereum price gained 5.73%. The strong recovery following the sharp price drop seen in this process reveals that investors are using the price drop as a buying opportunity. The fact that the price has risen above $3,900 again reflects a positive expectation in the market despite ETF outflows. In general, the Ethereum ETF market entered a short-term correction with net outflows during this period. However, the resumption of net inflows in the last three trading days and the upward trend of the price show that the recovery signals have come early. If institutional demand gains momentum again, the Ethereum price may create a more solid support ground in the coming period.

Bitcoin Opsiyon Dağılımı

Kaynak: Laevitas

BTC: Notional: $4.15B | Put/Call: 1.38 | Max Pain: $115K

Deribit Data: Deribit data shows that BTC options contracts with a notional value of approximately $4.15 billion expired today. At the same time, according to the data in the last 24 hours, if we look at the risk conversion in the next 1 week period, it seems that call options have recently started to be preferred , although put options are the dominant side in hedging more than call options. When we look at the expected volatility, it is slightly above the realized volatility. This shows that put option fees are cheap. On the other hand, the fact that the spread is positive and the two volatilities are very close to each other may be a sign that there will be a lot of movement in the market. Skew values are highly bearish today and next week.

Laevitas Data: When we examine the chart, we see that put options are concentrated in the band of 105,000 – 116,000 dollars. Call options are concentrated between $ 118,000 – 120,000 and the concentration decreases towards the upper levels. At the same time, the level of approximately $ 116,000 is seen as support and the level of $ 120,000 as resistance. On the other hand, there are 3.76K put options at the $ 116,000 level, where there is a peak and there is a decrease in put volume after this level. However, it is seen that 4.42K call option contracts peaked at the $120,000 level. When we look at the options market, we see that put contracts are dominant on a daily and weekly basis.

Opsiyon Vadesi:

Put/Call Ratio and Maximum Pain Point: If we look at the options in the last 7 days data from Laevitas, the number of call options decreased by about 8% compared to last week and amounted to 113.94K. In contrast, the number of put options increased by 6% to 107.69K compared to last week. The put/call ratio for options was set at 1.38. This indicates that put options are much more in demand among investors than call options. Bitcoin’s maximum pain point is seen at $115,000. It can be predicted that BTC is priced at $116,600 and if it does not break the $115,000 level downwards, which is the pain point, the rises will continue.

Ethereum Opsiyon Dağıtımı

Kaynak: Laevitas

ETH: $792 M notional | Put/Call: 1.06 | Max Pain: $3,600

Laevitas Data: Looking at the data on the chart, we see that put options are particularly concentrated at the price levels between $3,400 and $3,800. The highest put volume is at the $3,500 level with around 13K contracts and this level can be considered as a possible support zone. On the other hand, call options are concentrated between $4,000 and $4,600. Especially the $4,000 level stands out with a high call volume of about 21K contracts. This level can be considered as an important resistance zone in the market.

Deribit Data: Ağustos 9 and 10 Ethereum options futures have seen a significant increase in market interest. Total open interest in both futures reached approximately $96 million and $75 million, respectively. These figures represent significant increases of more than 550% compared to the previous days, indicating new and high-volume capital inflows to the market. On the volatility side (especially if considered as implied volatility or expected volatility), there are positive changes in indicators such as 25% Risk Reversal (RR) and 25% Butterfly (BF). These increases indicate that volatility in option pricing is rising and hence sharp price fluctuations are expected in the market.

Opsiyon Vade Sonu:

Ethereum options with a notional value of $792 million expired on Ağustos 8. The Max Pain level is calculated at $3,600, while the put/call ratio stands at 1.06.

Yasal Uyarı

Bu dokümanda yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti niteliği taşımamaktadır. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, yetkili kuruluşlar tarafından kişilerin risk ve getiri tercihleri dikkate alınarak kişiye özel olarak verilir. Bu dokümanda yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler genel niteliktedir. Bu tavsiyeler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece bu dokümanda yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yatırım kararı vermeniz beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.