Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT
In the US, Hassett stated that the government shutdown had a greater impact on the economy than expected and that the Fed should proceed with a cautious interest rate cut, while also announcing that he had not discussed the Fed chairmanship with Trump. The European Commission proposed transferring supervisory powers over crypto companies from member states to ESMA in order to resolve inconsistencies in MiCA implementation. The US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.12%, reaching its highest level since November 2020. The National Bank of Canada showed that it purchased 1.47 million Strategy (MSTR) shares with a purchase of approximately $273 million.
From a technical perspective, BTC is currently managing to stay above the second descending trend line, despite testing it from time to time. Following a high-volume candle, BTC has been experiencing horizontal price movements, and the lack of a catalyst is seen as an obstacle to regaining momentum. After the last three doji candles, BTC recorded two high-volume bearish candles and is testing the support part of the flag pattern. At the time of writing, the price is trading at the critical reference level of 90,000.
Technical indicators show the Wave Trend (WT) oscillator giving a sell signal just below the overbought zone, while the momentum in the Squeeze Momentum (SM) indicator’s histogram has weakened. The Kaufman Moving Average (KAMA) has now crossed above the price at the $91,900 level.
According to liquidation data, with the recent decline, buy-side trades within the 91,000–92,000 band were liquidated, while trades accumulated at the 90,000 band resulted in liquidation. Sell-side transactions intensified at the $94,500 level, while the monthly outlook continues to maintain its intensity within the $97,000–$98,000 range.
In summary, Vanguard’s announcement that it will offer ETF services to its customers had a significant impact on BTC’s momentum, while ADP private sector employment coming in well below expectations pushed December interest rate cut expectations to 90% levels ahead of the FOMC. Jobless claims came in below expectations, presenting a mixed picture. The Bank of Japan is preparing for an interest rate hike. Technically, following the recent rally, the price is tracking the flag pattern it formed. Liquidity data indicates that target zones are regaining importance and that the market continues to seek equilibrium. After this stage, the 90,000 level has become critical again for the price to maintain its momentum. Closings and pricing above this level are important indicators for regaining momentum. In this context, 95,000 stands out as the next target area, and once it is passed, liquidity areas will be tracked again. In the event of possible selling pressure, 90,000 stands out again as both a reference and liquidity area, and in the event of a breakout, the 87,000 level, which is the point where the major uptrend passed, will be tracked.
Supports: 90,000 – 89,000 – 87,800
Resistances: 91,400 – 92,600 – 94,000
ETH/USDT
The ETH price fell below the $3,100 level amid increasing selling pressure during the day. This decline indicates that buyers have lost momentum in the short term. However, despite the pullback in price, the fact that the support area shown by the green rectangle on the chart remains intact indicates that the uptrend has not been completely broken. Buyers appear to be continuing to defend this area.
The liquidity picture remains positive. Despite a slight pullback in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, it remains in positive territory, signaling that capital flows are still moving in the direction of buyers. This structure indicates that pullbacks can be viewed as opportunities for now.
There is a relaxation in momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has moved out of the overbought zone, signaling the expected correction. This structure of the RSI indicates that a short-term cooling process is underway and that aggressive upward attempts may slow down for a while.
In the technical outlook, short-term weakness is prominent on the Ichimoku side. The price falling below the Tenkan level indicates increased short-term pressure, while remaining above the kumo cloud and Kijun confirms that the medium-term positive trend is still valid. In other words, buyers are still in the game in the big picture.
In the overall outlook, ETH is progressing within a fragile upward structure. If the support zone is maintained and the price heads back towards the $3,150 – $3,227 range, a strong wave of recovery could start again. However, if the weak trend below $3,100 becomes permanent, declines could extend towards the $3,070 and then $3,020 support levels. The trend is still bullish, but a short-term correction is active. For the direction to clearly turn upward again, it is critical for the price to gain strength from the support zone and exceed $3,150. The reaction of buyers in this zone will determine the short-term fate of ETH.
Supports: 3,070 – 3,020 – 2,872
Resistances: 3,227 – 3,436 – 3,672
XRP/USDT
The XRP price showed the expected movement during the day, falling to the main support level of $2.05 and receiving a limited rebound from this area. Currently, the price is trying to hold just above this level, but it is clear that buyers have not yet gained strong control.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remaining in positive territory indicates that liquidity inflows into the market have not completely dried up and that strong investors continue to hold their positions despite this decline. This outlook further emphasizes the importance of rebounds above the $2.05 level.
On the Relative Strength Index (RSI) side, momentum weakness persists. Unless the indicator shows a clear upward momentum, it seems difficult for the price to generate a strong move towards resistance levels. Therefore, the RSI gaining strength in the short term will be the most important factor supporting the possibility of an uptrend.
The Ichimoku structure remains seller-dominated. The price falling below the cloud and failing to rise above the Tenkan and Kijun levels confirms the continuation of the negative trend from a technical perspective. The lower band of the cloud now represents a strong resistance level, both in terms of trend and psychologically.
The overall outlook indicates that volatility will continue in the short term. The $2.05 level is currently XRP’s line of defense. If there is a clear buyer response from this area and the price moves to the $2.10–$2.12 range, the first stage of recovery can be considered to have begun. However, closes below $2.05 could accelerate selling pressure and trigger a pullback towards the $1.98–$1.95 support band. At the end of the day, the picture is clear. Buyers are facing an important test, and the decision point is clear. XRP’s direction will largely depend on how the $2.05 support holds up.
Supports: $2.0543 – $1.9092 – $1.8121
Resistances: 2.1731 – 2.2729 – 2.3512
SOL/USDT
The SOL price showed a slight decline during the day. The asset moved into the lower region of the downtrend that began on October 6. The price, which broke above the downtrend line, a strong resistance level, encountered resistance at the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average and retreated after failing to break through. Currently testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average as resistance, the price may retest the $127.21 level if the decline continues. In the event of an uptrend, the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average should be monitored.
On the 4-hour chart, it remained below the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Blue Line) and 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates a possible downtrend in the medium term. At the same time, the price being below both moving averages signals an increased downward trend in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) remained at a positive level. However, balanced cash inflows and outflows may keep the CMF in positive territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) fell from the overbought zone to the negative zone. At the same time, it continued to hold above the upper region of the downward trend that began on November 26. This may indicate that buying pressure continues. In the event of an uptrend due to macroeconomic data or positive news related to the Solana ecosystem, the $163.80 level stands out as a strong resistance point. If this level is broken upwards, the uptrend is expected to continue. In the event of pullbacks due to developments in the opposite direction or profit-taking, the $120.24 level could be tested. A decline to these support levels could increase buying momentum, presenting a potential opportunity for an uptrend.
Supports: 133.74 – 127.21 – 120.24
Resistances: 138.73 – 144.35 – 150.67
DOGE/USDT
The DOGE price continued to experience pullbacks during the day. The asset gained value by gaining downward momentum starting on November 11 and broke above the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average. Testing the $0.14952 level as resistance, the price failed to break through and experienced a pullback. Currently continuing to decline, the price has begun to trade below the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average. If the pullback continues, it may test the $0.13367 level as support. If an uptrend begins, the 200 EMA (Black Line) moving average could act as resistance.
On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Blue Line) remained below the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates that the downtrend may continue in the medium term. The price being below both moving averages indicates a downward trend in the short term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) remained in positive territory. Additionally, a decrease in money inflows could push the CMF into negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) retreated from the middle of the positive zone to the negative zone. At the same time, it is currently testing the support level of the downward trend that began on November 26. If it breaks this level, the decline could deepen. On the other hand, the negative divergence continues. In the event of a rise due to political developments, macroeconomic data, or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem, the $0.15680 level stands out as a strong resistance zone. Conversely, in the event of negative news flow, the $0.13367 level could be triggered. A decline to these levels could increase momentum and initiate a new wave of growth.
Supports: 0.14237 – 0.13367 – 0.12824
Resistances: 0.14952 – 0.15680 – 0.16686
AVAX/USDT
AVAX started the day at $14.41 and tested the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA100) level during its rise but failed to break through it. With this failure to break through, selling pressure increased, and AVAX gradually declined during the day to $14.21, falling below the EMA20 and EMA50 levels. Currently trading at around $13.75, AVAX is showing a weak outlook, down approximately 4.7% from the opening. The market-wide decline has also affected AVAX.
On the 4-hour chart, during AVAX’s decline, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) line crossed below the signal line, indicating a downward trend. Although the MACD is still in positive territory, it has moved quite close to the negative zone as momentum weakens. This outlook indicates that selling pressure has intensified and short-term momentum has weakened. Furthermore, with its recent sharp pullback, AVAX has fallen below the EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 levels and is now trading below all critical Exponential Moving Average levels. Technically, this indicates that the short-term trend has turned negative again.
From a technical perspective, the $13.50 level is the first support zone for AVAX. Closings below this level could lead to a deeper decline to the $12.57 and $11.88 support levels. In upward reaction movements, the first resistance zone is $14.21, the EMA20 and EMA50 levels. If this zone is broken, AVAX could rise again towards the $15.10 and $15.75 resistance levels. However, the current technical structure indicates that these movements require strong momentum. Overall, the downward crossover of the MACD and AVAX falling below all EMA levels support the short-term negative outlook, while the weakening momentum indicates that upward attempts may be limited.
(EMA20: Red Line, EMA50: Green Line, EMA100: Blue Line, EMA200: Purple Line)
Supports: 13.50 – 12.57 – 11.88
Resistances: 14.21 – 15.10 – 15.75
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