Teknik Analiz
BTC/USDT
The market’s focus was on the release of U.S. inflation data. In Temmuz, the US core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, reaching its highest level in the last five months and exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%. On a monthly basis, it increased by 0.2%, remaining below the expected 0.3%. US stock markets will be monitored throughout the day, with futures trading positively.
Looking at the technical picture, BTC, which had been slightly bearish during the day compared to the previous analysis, had fallen to the 118,000 level. The price, which has rebounded, continues to push towards the 119,000 level at the time of writing.
Technical indicators show the Wave Trend oscillator (WT) moving near the overbought zone, which could signal a reversal back upward following recent developments. The Squeeze Momentum (SM) indicator shows a weakening of positive momentum, while the Kaufman moving average currently acts as resistance at the 119,150 level just above the price.
Looking at liquidity data, a significant portion of the heavy buy positions that began at the 115,000 level have been liquidated around 118,000, while the highest accumulation remains open at the 115,000 level. Sell positions, on the other hand, have accumulated at the 121,000 and 123,000 levels in the short term.
In summary, while institutional buying continues to send positive signals in the fundamental developments section, silence prevails on the Trump front. Following the inflation data, expectations for an interest rate cut in Eylül rose to 90%. The technical structure is looking for a suitable ground to rise again at the saturation point, while liquidity data continues to show 115,000 as an important accumulation zone. In this context, if the technical structure accompanies the fundamental developments, the 120,000 level will emerge as resistance before the ATH, and closing above this level may trigger an increase in momentum. In the event of potential selling pressure, the 118,000 level will be monitored as a support area, with a break below this level targeting the 117,500 level, followed by the 115,000 liquidity and reference area.
Support levels: 118,000 – 117,500 – 115,000
Resistances: 120,000 – 121,500 – 123,000
ETH/USDT
Ethereum gained strong upward momentum during the day as inflation data from the US came in better than market expectations, breaking above the critical resistance level of 4,381. With this level broken, buying demand increased rapidly, especially in futures trading, and there was a noticeable increase in trading volume.
On the technical front, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator continues to retreat toward the zero line. This movement indicates that partial liquidity outflows from the market are continuing and that short-term investors are moving toward profit realization. Despite the rise, the weakness in the CMF points to a portion of the capital driving the momentum being withdrawn from the market.
Looking at the Ichimoku analysis, the price moving away from the Tenkan level and moving upward indicates that buyers are in control in the short term. The upward slope of the Kumo cloud also supports the positive structure of the overall trend. However, this positive outlook, combined with the weakness in momentum indicators, presents a picture that should be evaluated with caution.
The RSI is approaching the upper limit of the overbought zone. More noteworthy is that the RSI is not strengthening at the same rate as the price reaches new highs. This negative divergence is an important warning that the risk of a correction in the short term is still on the table.
If the price closes above 4,381 for the rest of the day, the uptrend is likely to continue with increased momentum. However, closing below this level, combined with weakness in the CMF and RSI, increases the likelihood of a pullback. In such a scenario, Tenkan and then the lower band of the Kumo cloud emerge as important support levels.
Support levels: 4,084 – 3,722 – 3,646
Resistance levels: 4,381 – 4,550 – 4,857
XRP/USDT
XRP fell to $3.09 during the day but then rose above the Kumo cloud level following the release of US inflation data that came in better than expected. This price movement indicates that the market is shifting back to a buyer-dominated structure after a brief period of selling pressure.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains in the negative zone despite the price increase. This indicates that liquidity outflows continue and capital inflows remain limited in terms of trading volume. The downward trend of the CMF creates a mismatch with the current price movement, presenting a neutral-negative outlook in terms of the buy-sell balance.
When examining the Ichimoku indicator, the price being above the kumo cloud indicates that the overall trend structure remains positive. However, the price being below both the Kijun and Tenkan levels stands out as a factor limiting upward momentum in the short term. The sell signal formed by the Tenkan crossing below the Kijun also points to a weakening in the short-term outlook.
From a daily closing perspective, price movements above the 3.22 dollar level could pave the way for the short-term technical structure to evolve into a different scenario, while remaining below this level keeps the risk of retesting the 3.09 dollar support level alive.
Supports: 3.0927 – 2.9967 – 2.7355
Resistance levels: 3.3058 – 3.6554 – 4.0055
SOL/USDT
The SOL price remained flat during the day. The asset continued to stay above the upward trend line that began on Ağustos 2. The price, which remains below the major level of $181.75, is currently testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average as resistance. If the downtrend continues, it could test the 171.82 dollar level. On the upside, the 181.75 dollar level is worth monitoring.
On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) remains above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates that the upward trend may continue in the medium term. At the same time, the price being between the two moving averages shows that the market is currently in a decision phase. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) is at a neutral level. However, an increase in money inflows could push the CMF into the positive zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) remains below the downward trend that began on Ağustos 10. This indicates that selling pressure is continuing. In the event of an upward movement due to macroeconomic data or positive news related to the Solana ecosystem, the $181.75 level emerges as a strong resistance point. If this level is broken to the upside, the upward trend is expected to continue. In the event of a pullback due to adverse developments or profit-taking, the 171.82 dollar level could be tested. A decline to these support levels could see an increase in buying momentum, presenting a potential opportunity for an upward move.
Destek seviyeleri: 171,82 - 163,80 - 150,67
Direnç Seviyeleri: 181,75 - 189,54 - 200,00
DOGE/USDT
The DOGE price remained flat during the day. The asset continued to trade above the upward trend that began on Ağustos 2. However, the price broke below the strong support level of $0.22632 and continued its decline. As of now, it is testing this level and the 50 EMA (Blue Line) moving average as resistance. If the price closes above $0.22632, the $0.25025 level can be monitored.
On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) remains above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This indicates that the asset is in an upward trend in the medium term. The price being between the two moving averages also indicates that the asset is in a decision-making phase in the short term. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20) continues to remain in negative territory. Additionally, negative cash inflows could push the CMF further into the negative zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is at a neutral level. Meanwhile, the indicator, which began to fall below the downward trend that started on Ağustos 9, is currently testing this trend as resistance. A break above this level could signal the start of an uptrend. In the event of an upward movement driven by political developments, macroeconomic data, or positive news flow within the DOGE ecosystem, the 0.25025 dollar level emerges as a strong resistance zone. In the opposite scenario or in the event of negative news flow, the 0.21154 dollar level could be triggered. A decline to these levels could increase momentum and potentially initiate a new upward wave.
Destek seviyeleri: 0,21154 - 0,19909 - 0,18566
Resistances: 0.22632 – 0.25025 – 0.28164
SHIB/USDT
Following the US inflation data, the SHIB price saw a roughly 2% recovery. During intraday pullbacks, the $0.00001270 level was tested, and the price rebounded upward from this point due to buying activity. The fact that this level held during the day indicates that buyers are still active in the short term. Despite the rebound, the price remained limited within the 0.00001320–0.00001350 dollar range, and sustainability above this zone has not yet been established.
The limited upward movement was influenced by the trading volume not increasing to the expected extent during the recovery process. Daily volume data indicates that buyers are cautious about the continuation of the movement. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is at -0.08 and in the negative zone, confirming that capital flows are predominantly in the selling direction.
In the short term, the 0.00001350 dollar level stands out as the first intermediate resistance level. If volume-supported closes are seen above this level, a move toward the 0.00001390–0.00001400 dollar range could emerge. If this band is broken, the formation target at the 0.00001470 dollar level will come back into focus.
Below, the 0.00001270 dollar level continues to act as a critical support. Closures below this level could increase selling pressure, paving the way for tests of the 0.00001170 and 0.00001135 dollar support zones. The current technical structure indicates that a price above the $0.00001350 level or a clear break below the $0.00001270 level is needed to determine the direction in the short term. The upward trend that began with the breakout of the Falling Wedge formation formed since Temmuz 21 on Ağustos 6 is still forming the medium-term foundation of the technical outlook.
Support levels: 0.00001270 – 0.00001170 – 0.00001135
Resistance levels: 0.00001350 – 0.00001400 – 0.00001470
ADA/USDT
ADA continued its upward movement during the day, holding steady at the EMA 100 (Black Line) 0.7663 level in line with macroeconomic developments. The market’s focus was on the release of U.S. inflation data. The monthly CPI data came in below expectations, strengthening the likelihood of interest rate cuts and driving gains in the crypto markets. If U.S. stock markets continue to rise throughout the day, ADA is expected to re-enter the upward channel band.
The price continues to show a desire to close above the 50 and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA-Blue Line) and (EMA-Black Line) on the 4-hour chart. If the price rises during the day and breaks above the 20-day EMA (Red Line), it could re-enter the ascending channel band and the resistance level at 0.8413 could emerge as an important level to watch. This situation could indicate that the upward trend may continue in the medium term. The narrowing of volatility confirms that the market is cautious and in a wait-and-see mode in the short term. If the price falls below all moving averages during the day, it may indicate that the downward trend could continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) has fallen to 51 levels, giving a downward signal along with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF-20). A decrease in capital inflows could keep the CMF in the negative zone and indicate that selling pressure may continue.
In the event of an upward movement driven by positive macroeconomic data or favorable news related to the Cardano ecosystem, the $0.8811 level emerges as a strong resistance point. If this level is broken to the upside, further upward movement is expected. In the event of adverse developments or profit-taking, a pullback could occur, testing the 0.7378 dollar level. A decline to these support levels could see an increase in buying momentum, potentially presenting an opportunity for an upward move.
Supports 0.7378 – 0.6938 – 0.6617
Resistance levels 0.8413 – 0.8811 – 0.9038
Yasal Uyarı
Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmetleri, kişilerin risk ve getiri tercihleri dikkate alınarak yetkili kuruluşlar tarafından bireysel olarak verilmektedir. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler genel niteliktedir. Bu tavsiyeler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanarak yatırım kararı vermeniz beklentileriniz doğrultusunda sonuç vermeyebilir.
