Market Performance
| Asset / Index | Value ($) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 87,168.0 | -0.38% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,940.00 | -0.77% |
| Bitcoin Spot ETFs | -188.6M | Net Outflow |
| Ethereum Spot ETFs | -95.5M | Net Outflow |
| Nasdaq (NAS100) | 25,558.8 | -0.08% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 6,909.78 | +0.46% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,536.0 | -0.14% |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.511 | -0.02% |
| VIX Volatility Index | 14.00 | -0.57% |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.16800 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BRENT) | 62.687 | +0.21% |
| LBMA Gold (XAU) | 4,490.34 | +0.16% |
| LBMA Silver (XAG) | 72.117 | +1.14% |
“Prepared at UTC 07.40 am”
Today’s Key Events
- No Development in President Trump’s Schedule
- US, European, and UK Markets Close Early for Christmas
- US Jobless Claims
US Q3 GDP Hits Highest Level in Two Years
The US economy grew by 4.3% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, exceeding both the 3.2% expectation and the previous 3.8% figure. Real personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.5%, indicating continued strong domestic demand. The core PCE price index came in at 2.9%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous period. The data indicates that growth continued alongside inflationary pressures. This picture supports the Fed’s cautious stance on early interest rate cuts.
ADP Weekly Employment Growth Slowed but Remained Positive
As of December 6, the four-week average employment growth fell to +11,500, below the previous +17,500 figure. Nevertheless, employment growth remained positive for the third consecutive week.
Following the normalization after the shutdown, the data is signaling stability heading into December. The absence of signs of a rapid deterioration indicates that economic resilience is continuing. Along with the strong GDP surprise, the probability of an interest rate cut in January 2026 has fallen from 25% to approximately 15%.
US Durable Goods Orders Plunge in October
Durable goods orders in the US fell 2.2% month-on-month in October, falling short of expectations. The decline was particularly driven by a sharp drop in transportation equipment and aircraft orders. However, core durable goods orders exceeded expectations with a 0.5% increase. This indicates that core investments have not completely stalled, despite the weakness in headline data. The data points to divergence in economic activity across sectors.
Trump Continues Interest Rate Cut Rhetoric, Increasing Pressure on the Fed
Donald Trump argued that the next Fed Chair must be open to interest rate cuts while the economy and markets are strong. Opposing “premature braking” on the grounds of inflation, Trump said that someone who does not share his views cannot become Fed Chair. He emphasized that low interest rates would support stocks and accelerate growth. He claimed that a rising stock market could increase US GDP growth by 10-20%. The statements reignited discussions about the Fed’s independence.
Fed Chair Nominee Hassett: Strong GDP a Christmas Gift for Americans
Kevin Hassett noted that the US has been much slower to cut interest rates compared to other central banks. He described the 4.3% third-quarter GDP growth as a “great Christmas gift” for Americans. He argued that approximately 1.5 percentage points of this growth stemmed from Trump’s tariff policies. Hassett predicted that if growth continues around 4% in 2026, monthly employment growth could return to the 100–150 thousand range. He pointed to trade policies and artificial intelligence investments as the main growth drivers.
CME Data: 86.7% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in January
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is priced at 86.7%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 13.3%. The probability of a total 25 basis point cut by March is calculated at 40.7%. In contrast, the probability of rates remaining completely unchanged is 54.4%. Market expectations continue to reflect the Fed’s cautious stance.
Jerome Powell Becomes the Most Popular Top Official in the US
According to a Gallup poll reported by The Hill, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has the highest approval rating among more than a dozen U.S. leaders. More than 40% of respondents approve of Powell’s performance. His approval rating stands at 46% among Democrats, 34% among Republicans, and 49% among independents.
Despite frequent tensions with Trump, Powell appears to have maintained his popularity. This picture demonstrates the public’s confidence in the Fed Chairmanship.
Chinese Ministry of Finance Expects Bond Issuance to Remain High in 2026
The Chinese Ministry of Finance predicts that total government bond issuance will remain high in 2026. Officials emphasized that the debt scale and expenditures will be carefully managed to maintain the supply-demand balance. Balancing the maturity structure and coordinating central-local bond issuances are among the priorities. This year’s high bond issuance created pressure in the market. Therefore, concerns about 2026 issuance have already begun to be priced in.
New and Measured Pressure from the US on China’s Manufacturing Sector
The US Trade Representative announced that it will initiate a new tariff process on Chinese semiconductor products under Section 301. In the first phase, a 0% tariff will be applied starting December 23, 2025, and rates will increase after June 23, 2027. The US argues that China is attempting to dominate the semiconductor market through “non-market” practices. In addition, the FCC has added all non-US-made drones and key components to its list of “unreliable suppliers.” This decision will significantly limit Chinese drone manufacturers’ access to the US market.
Trump Administration Requests More Time to Release All Epstein Documents
The Trump administration has announced that it needs about another week to complete the release of all documents related to Jeffrey Epstein to the public. A total of up to 700,000 pages of documents need to be reviewed. Officials emphasize that the process is taking time due to legal and administrative checks. The release of all documents is expected to clarify the ongoing public debate. The announcement comes at a time of high expectations for transparency.
Russian Central Bank Plans Gradual Opening to Crypto Investment
The Russian Central Bank has published a new draft concept to regulate crypto asset investments. According to this, unqualified investors will be able to invest up to 300,000 rubles per year in crypto after passing a test. Qualified investors will obtain unlimited investment rights, excluding anonymous cryptos, after a risk assessment. Transactions must be made through licensed institutions. The legislation is expected to be finalized by July 2026, with sanctions beginning in 2027.
Solana Foundation Introduces New Wallet Connection SDK ConnectorKit
The Solana Foundation has announced that it will soon release a new wallet connection SDK for developers called ConnectorKit. ConnectorKit is designed as a framework-agnostic client, compatible with web3js and existing kits. Offering a headless architecture, the SDK includes modular components and user-friendly hooks. Features such as Kora and Passkeys will also be natively integrated. This step aims to improve the user experience within the Solana ecosystem.
Spain to Implement MiCA and DAC8 Crypto Regulations in 2026
Spain will fully implement the EU’s MiCA and DAC8 crypto regulations by 2026. MiCA will require crypto service providers to obtain a full license to continue operating from July 1, 2026. DAC8, which will come into force on January 1, 2026, will impose an obligation on exchanges to report user transaction and balance information to tax authorities. The regulations aim to increase transparency and oversight in the sector. At the same time, compliance costs are expected to rise.
Spark Strategy Head: Aave Vote is a Brand and Roadmap Battle
Spark strategy lead monetsupply.eth argued that the brand control vote on Aave was misunderstood. He recalled that in recent years, Avara and Aave Labs developed Aave v4 with a $15 million budget funded by the DAO. During this process, the majority of the DAO focused on scaling Aave v3. It was emphasized that the debate has not only a technical but also a strategic aspect. The vote is considered critical in terms of future traffic flow and roadmap.
Hyper Foundation Burns HYPE Tokens Held in Relief Fund Address
The Hyper Foundation announced that the $HYPE tokens held in the relief fund address have been officially destroyed. The decision was made through a weighted governance vote. 85% of the votes were in favor of the burn, 7% were against, and 8% were abstentions. The foundation stated that this step provides transparency in terms of token economics. The burn created a permanent reduction in supply.
Tesla’s Cash Reserves Reach Record Level
According to Solid Intel data, Tesla’s cash reserves rose to $42.24 billion as of December 24. This figure is the highest level in the company’s history. The strong cash position provides Tesla with flexibility in terms of investment and debt management. It also serves as an important buffer against potential macroeconomic fluctuations. The market viewed this development positively for the company’s balance sheet.
Japan’s 30-Year Bond Yield Hits Historic High
The yield on Japan’s 30-year government bond rose 2 basis points to 3.445%. This rate is the highest level ever seen in the country’s history. The increase shows that global pressure on long-term interest rates is also reflected in Japan. Investors have begun to price in possible normalization steps in monetary policy. The development could increase volatility in the Japanese bond market.
Forecast Market Rocket Completes $1.5 Million Pre-Seed Round
Prediction market aggregator Rocket announced it has closed a $1.5 million pre-seed investment round led by Electric Capital. Jsquare, Bodhi Ventures, Tangent, and Amber Group also participated in the round. Rocket aims to aggregate different prediction markets on a single platform. The project seeks to increase data access and market transparency. The investment reflects confidence in the early-stage project.
