Crypto Markets Struggle as Fed Pressure and Global Tensions Rise

Market Performance

“Prepared at UTC 07.37 am”

Today’s Key Events

• Trump to Visit the White House in Palm Beach
• Fed Members Williams and Kashkari to Speak
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson to Speak
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler to Speak
• HIVE Blockchain Technologies Ltd Earnings Report
• Arbitrum (ARB) and ZKsync (ZK) Token Unlocks
• Strategy BTC Purchases to Be Tracked

Hawkish Statements Continue from Fed Members

• Kansas City Fed President Schmid (2025 voter, hawkish): Opposes a December rate cut, stating it could push inflation back up. He said the reasons he gave for opposing the October cut are still valid, that the weakness in the labor market is structural, and that further cuts would not work
• Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 voter, hawkish): Says it would be difficult to support a cut in December. He said inflation is still very high and the return to the 2% target could take a long time. Therefore, he stated that preemptive easing would be inappropriate unless the data showed faster disinflation or significant labor market weakness.
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic (no vote, neutral): He stated that there is no clear evidence of weakness in the labor market. He said the economic environment remains challenging and inflation may not fall rapidly after one-off tariffs.
• Fed Governor Milan (2025–2026 voter, dove): He supports a rate cut in December and argues that recent data warrants easing. He stated that one should not place too much faith in lagging indicators and that unnecessary weakness in the labor market should not be allowed. He reiterated that rent inflation and wage growth have slowed.

Trump Removes Tariffs on Over 100 Agricultural Products

President Trump signed an executive order removing meat, coffee, fruit, and many other agricultural products from the reciprocal tariff list. This step is seen as a significant policy change aimed at lowering the cost of living. Trump said that further tariff reductions were not necessary and that he expected coffee and other staple food prices to fall after the exemptions.

Treasury Secretary Besant: $2,000 Refund Checks “Possible But Not Guaranteed”

Besant noted that Trump’s proposed $2,000 refund checks require congressional approval and will be subject to income restrictions. He stated that the checks are not finalized but are “possible.” He also said that the US and China have not yet reached an agreement on rare earths, but that an agreement is expected before Thanksgiving.

China’s October Economic Data Below Expectations

• Industrial production rose 4.9% annually (expectation was 5.2%).
• Fixed asset investment contracted by 1.7% in January–October, while real estate investment fell by 14.7% since the beginning of the year.
• Retail sales increased by 2.9% annually; consumption recovery continues to be weak.
• The urban unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, showing limited improvement.

Tensions Escalate Between Japan and China Over Taiwan

• Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said that a possible conflict in Taiwan could pose a “life-threatening situation” for Japan and open the door to military intervention.
• China summoned the Japanese ambassador and issued a stern warning, stating that “you will bear all the consequences.”
• Chinese media described Takaichi’s remarks as the first explicit reference to collective defense since 1945 and labeled them a “serious provocation.”
• China advised its citizens not to travel to Japan; Takaichi’s approval rating within the country rose.
• China Coast Guard announced it would conduct live-fire drills in the Yellow Sea on November 17–19; tensions continue to escalate.

ECB Policymakers: Stablecoin Shocks Could Strain Monetary Policy

Olaf Sleijpen (ECB Governing Council member, President of the Dutch Central Bank): Said a potential “bank run” in the stablecoin market could threaten European financial stability. He emphasized that the growing size of dollar-based stablecoins could disrupt inflation and economic stability in the event of a sudden collapse. He noted that in such a scenario, the ECB may have to reassess the direction of its interest rate policy. The statement shows that stablecoin risks are now being addressed at the macro policy level in Europe.

Japan Sends Senior Diplomat to Ease Tensions with China

Japan will send senior diplomat Masaaki Kanai to Beijing in an effort to defuse rising tensions following harsh statements on Taiwan. This move is intended as a “softening” message in response to China’s strong diplomatic reaction to Takaichi’s remarks. The meeting is said to aim to prevent the crisis from escalating further.

NYT Investigation: $28 Billion in Illegal Funds Flowed to Major Exchanges in Two Years

A joint investigation by the NYT and ICIJ revealed that approximately $28 billion in illegal funds flowed to exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Bybit by 2025. A significant portion of the funds came from North Korean hacker groups, Southeast Asian frauds, and global “pig butchering” scams. It was reported that despite Binance’s $4.3 billion fine, it continues to receive hundreds of millions of dollars from high-risk entities. The report also cited Trump’s $2 billion collaboration with Binance and CZ’s pardon as factors contributing to concerns about regulatory relaxation.

Tether Plans to Invest €1 Billion in Neura Robotics

According to Financial Times sources, Tether is considering investing €1 billion in artificial intelligence robotics startup Neura Robotics. If this investment materializes, the company’s valuation is expected to reach €8–10 billion. Tether’s rapid expansion into artificial intelligence and robotics in recent times is noteworthy.

CZ: “We Would Invest Any Potential Repayment Back into the US”

CZ gave a cautious response to a question about the possibility of a $4.3 billion penalty repayment. He kept expectations low, stating, “There is a balance between asking for more and being fair.” He said that any potential repayment would be used to reinvest in the US. The statement indicates that CZ’s efforts to repair relations with the US are ongoing.

Cardone Capital Purchased 888 More Bitcoins

Grant Cardone announced that his company purchased 888 more Bitcoins for its 101 Mizner Boca BTC project. The purchase shows that Cardone Capital continues to strategically increase its Bitcoin position. The company has been attracting attention recently with its real estate + Bitcoin hybrid investment model.

Arthur Hayes Sold $4.7 Million Worth of ETH

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sold a total of 1,480 ETH over the past two days, completing a transaction worth approximately $4.7 million. Hayes, who made his previous sale on August 1, appears to have made part of this sale when ETH was at a low point. Hayes’ past transactions indicate that he frequently buys back at the bottom.