Market Performance
| Metric | Value | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 121,537 | -0.09% | Spot ETF +$198M |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 4,343 | -0.64% | Spot ETF -$8.5M |
| DXY (US Dollar Index) | 99.4044 | +0.56% | Risk-off dollar strength |
| VIX | 16.43 | +0.80% | Volatility uptick |
| 10Y UST Yield | 4.1365% | +1.55 bps | Rates edge higher |
| Brent Crude | 65.23 | -1.54% | Energy softens |
| LBMA Gold | 4,040.42 | +1.41% | Bid for safety |
| S&P 500 | — | -0.28% | US equities softer |
| Nasdaq | — | -0.08% | Tech marginally lower |
| Russell 2000 | — | -0.61% | Small caps lag |
Macroeconomic and Political Developments
Fed’s Number 3 Supports Interest Rate Cuts; BLS Rushes to Complete CPI Report
On October 9, the US Senate rejected a bipartisan temporary funding bill for the seventh time. The vote yielded the same result as before: 54 in favor, 45 against. At a cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump described the government shutdown as “an opportunity to permanently reduce Democratic programs.”
Fed Divide Deepens: Williams and Barr Support Cautious Rate Cut
- John Williams (New York Fed President, 2025 voter, moderate): Called for more rate cuts, pointing to weakness in the labor market. Williams said the economy is not on the brink of recession, but the decline in job postings and slowdown in employment are “worrisome.” He noted that tariffs have only increased inflation by 0.25–0.5 points, a limited effect.
- Michael Barr (Fed Vice Chair, 2025 voter, neutral): He said inflation is still high, so “cautious cuts” are appropriate. Barr emphasized that the Fed must remain committed to its 2% inflation target.
- Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed President): She said stablecoins have no impact on monetary policy operations. She also said that monetary policy remains “somewhat tight” following the September rate cut.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Working to Complete CPI Report
The September CPI data, delayed due to the government shutdown, is being worked on with staff being called back. The report is expected to be released before the Fed’s October 28-29 meeting. This data will also be decisive for the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
Bessent: Four Candidates Emerge for Fed Chairmanship
According to the Financial Times, Treasury Secretary Bessent has completed interviews with 11 candidates for Fed Chair. The four leading names are:
- Kevin Warsh: Supports Fed reform.
- Christopher Waller: Proposed a balance sheet reduction plan.
- Kevin Hassett: Close to Trump’s economic policies.
- Rick Rieder (BlackRock CIO): Stands out for his broad market experience.
China Imposes Export Controls on Critical Minerals
China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have restricted exports of rare earth elements, lithium batteries, super-hard materials, and related raw materials. They also added 14 foreign companies to the “Unreliable Entities List.” The new measures will take effect on November 8. This move has been interpreted as Beijing increasing its bargaining power ahead of US-China trade negotiations.
US Senators Propose Anti-DeFi Bill
A group of Democratic senators has introduced a bill that would allow the Treasury to restrict “high-risk” DeFi protocols. The bill includes KYC requirements for unregulated wallets and the removal of legal protections for developers. Industry representatives have stated that the move would stifle innovation.
Democrats’ Bill to End Shutdown Rejected
The U.S. Senate rejected a bill by Democrats that would have ended the government shutdown. The vote failed to secure the necessary majority. Attention has now turned to the temporary funding bill that Republicans will propose.
Arthur Hayes: Speculation Reflects Public Despair
Arthur Hayes said that failed economic policies are driving people to the stock market and cryptocurrency. According to Hayes, small investors are flocking to risky assets in hopes of quick profits. He stated that this situation reflects the public’s disappointment with governments.
Stablecoin Volume Plummets in South Korea
Stablecoin trading volume on Korea’s five major exchanges fell to 238 billion won in June. This represents an 80% drop from the peak of 1.2 trillion won at the end of 2024. The Bank of Korea explained that weakness in the crypto market has slowed stablecoin growth.
New IPO Guidance from the SEC
The SEC has allowed companies to file for public offerings without specifying the offering price during government shutdowns. The regulation aims to reduce bottlenecks in the approval process. However, the SEC has stated that financial statement reviews may be revised later.
Companies Go Public Using Trump Connections
Some firms are raising capital by highlighting their ties to Trump in the capital markets. Fermi Inc., founded by Rick Perry, raised $682.5 million in its IPO despite not generating revenue. Experts note that this trend is likely to increase as the election process unfolds.
Discounted Token Deals from the Solana Foundation
The Solana Foundation is encouraging many companies to build treasuries by selling large amounts of $SOL tokens at a discount. This has led to an increase in publicly traded Solana treasuries. However, the repetition of similar strategies has drawn some criticism.
Solana TVL Breaks Record
The total value locked (TVL) on the Solana chain hit a record high of $42.4 billion. The increase is attributed to institutional investments and strong liquidity in DeFi protocols. TVL is expected to grow further by the end of the year.
