Introduction
The Ukrainian crisis is a geopolitical conflict that began with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatist movements in the Donbas region following the Euromaidan process in 2013-2014 and deepened further with the large-scale invasion in 2022. Russia’s security concerns and the West’s support for Ukraine are at the root of the crisis. In 2025, President-elect Donald Trump tried to revive the diplomatic process with the promise of peace talks, but no lasting agreement was reached due to Russia’s preconditions and Ukraine’s security demands. In the current situation, although the possibility of limited ceasefires and temporary solutions has come to the fore, the gap between the main demands of the parties remains the biggest obstacle to the peace process.
From a market perspective, this crisis continues to have the potential to have a direct impact on financial stability. Therefore, the current picture remains not only a political but also an economic risk factor.
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Key Factors Leading to the Onset of the Crisis (Historical Background)
The crisis in Ukraine began with the Euromaidan protests in 2013-2014. This process was shaped by Ukraine’s desire for rapprochement with the West and the popular movement against the pro-Russian policies of then President Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych’s ouster in 2014 was perceived by Russia as a Western-backed intervention and triggered Moscow’s strategic reflexes. In the same year, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for separatist movements in the Donbas region made the crisis permanent.
These developments affected not only political balances but also energy supply and logistics corridors, and were reflected in international markets. Russia’s strategic moves in the Black Sea and NATO’s eastward expansion linked the economic and security dimensions of the crisis.
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Internal and External Factors Causing the Deepening of the Crisis
Both internal and external factors played a decisive role in the deepening of the crisis. Within Ukraine, the economic cost of the war, infrastructure losses and social pressures have increased, while on the Russian side, the crisis has become a tool used to consolidate regime security. External factors included NATO’s eastward expansion discussions, western sanctions, Russia’s efforts to maintain control over energy resources and its role in global grain markets.
In particular, fluctuations in natural gas and oil supplies directly affected European markets. At the same time, the destabilization of the grain corridor through the Black Sea created global volatility in food prices. Therefore, the crisis became not only a military and political one, but also a driver of financial markets.
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Donald Trump’s Promise of “Peace Talks”: Recent Attempts
In 2025, with the re-election of Donald Trump as president, there was a new diplomatic momentum for peace talks. Trump had promised a quick solution during his election campaign and contacted both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky as soon as he took office. However, Russia’s preconditions, such as recognition of Crimea’s status, and Ukraine’s demands for security guarantees have made it difficult for negotiations to move forward. Although Trump’s messages to Ukraine in August aimed to revive the process, the peace table did not produce any concrete results as the parties did not make any concessions.
These developments are closely monitored by the markets. Trump’s initiatives may create temporary optimism; however, a stalemate in the talks may lead to a renewed increase in energy prices and regional risk premiums. Therefore, the course of peace negotiations remains a source of volatility for financial markets in the short term.
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Current Military/Diplomatic Picture
Conflicts continue on the ground; Russia maintains its military pressure while Ukraine remains resilient with Western support. In the diplomatic arena, Trump’s initiatives open a new window for the process, but the prospects for peace seem slim due to the gap between the positions of the parties. Moreover, differences of approach between European countries and the US also prevent the process from moving forward quickly.
From a market perspective, this means an increase in the regional geopolitical risk premium. Especially European economies with high energy dependence are directly affected by this process.
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Assessments and Forecasts in the Light of All Developments
There are three main scenarios for the future of the crisis. The first scenario is that the parties agree on a temporary ceasefire and a limited political framework. In this case, markets may experience short-term relief and energy prices may stabilize.
The second scenario is that a leaders’ summit takes place, but a permanent solution is not reached. This scenario seems highly likely and implies continued volatility and geopolitical risk premiums for the markets.
The third scenario is a complete collapse of negotiations and escalation of conflicts. Although this scenario is less likely, if it materializes, it will lead to new shocks in the markets on a global scale.
The most likely development in the short term would be temporary measures such as limited ceasefires and humanitarian corridors. Such steps may create short-term optimism in the markets; however, it is unlikely that the volatility in prices will completely disappear without a lasting peace. Therefore, in its current form, the Ukraine crisis will continue to be a geopolitical risk factor in global markets and shape
Disclaimer
The information, commentary, and analysis provided in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Geopolitical events such as the Ukraine crisis are highly uncertain and may change rapidly. Market impacts described here are based on current publicly available data and scenarios and may not reflect future developments. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with licensed financial advisors before making any investment or strategic decisions.
