MARKET COMPASS
Trump, Tariffs and the FED
Developments in the US continue to be influential in global markets. Most recently, Donald Trump’s remarks about US Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell caused the independence of the FED to be questioned and further spread the risk-off mood. However, Trump later stated that he had no intention of firing Powell and this statement brought relief to the markets.
In addition to Trump’s assessment, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that the current tariff situation is “unsustainable” and that he expects tensions to ease in the near term also contributed to the positive mood. Futures contracts linked to Wall Street indices, which posted strong gains yesterday, are also on the positive side today. Purchases in Asian stock markets continue on the European front as well.
Positive developments on the global agenda played an important role in the appreciation of digital assets. In addition, The news that the details may be announced in the next two weeks within the scope of Trump’s order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve also helps the interest to increase again. In the rest of the day, we think that the upward trend may continue with interim corrections. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that possible statements on the trade war and the evaluations of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials should be closely monitored along with the macro indicators to be announced.
Flash Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date and relevant estimate of the company’s outlook for the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a survey of nearly 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while below 50.0 indicates contraction. There are two versions of this report, Flash and Final, published about a week apart. The Flash version is released on a preliminary and monthly basis, approximately 3 weeks into the current month. A below-forecast reading is expected to produce a positive result for crypto assets.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda, which started with Trump’s nomination process. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long term. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, create enthusiasm in the crypto market, and that concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually begin to dissipate, and in this parallel, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish expectation. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dubai AI Festival: Held in Dubai, UAE | – | – |
| – | Crypto Horizons 2025: Hosted in Dubai, UAE | – | – |
| Day 3 | IMF Meetings | – | – |
| 13:00 | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | – | – |
| 13:35 | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | – | – |
| 13:45 | US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | 49.0 | 50.2 |
| 13:45 | US Flash Services PMI (Apr) | 52.8 | 54.4 |
| 14:00 | US New Home Sales (Mar) | 684K | 676K |
| 22:30 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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