MARKET COMPASS
Tariff Agenda and Hope
Developments regarding the trade wars, the most influential dynamic on price changes in the markets, are closely monitored. While President Trump stated that they will make a fair deal with China, he said that the 145% tariffs will not be reduced until an agreement is reached. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent underlined that Donald Trump did not propose to unilaterally lift tariffs, raising doubts that the trade standoff with China will be resolved quickly.
News flows about the creation of a cryptocurrency reserve in the US and developments on the US front, which contributed to the increase in risk appetite in global markets, allowed digital assets to breathe after the depreciation they have recorded in recent weeks. It is rumored that there may be developments and statements on the strategic reserve in the coming weeks. On the other hand, it seems that progress is being made on tariffs, even though it is understood that it will be a tough road. However, in recent days, we see that the atmosphere in which the independence of the US Federal Reserve (FED) has been questioned has dissipated.
With these variables, we think that the upward trend recorded in major digital assets may continue with interim corrections from a short-term perspective. Speaking for the intraday picture, it would not be wrong to say that volatility may increase slightly due to the US macro data and the expiry day of future contracts. For the medium and long term, we continue to maintain our bullish expectation.
US Bitcoin Futures Expiration: Options expirations are written on futures contacts with the same expiration date and usually expires on the last Friday of the current month. Trading volume and price volatility may increase in the days leading up to the expiry of these contracts.
US Durable Goods Orders: shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. This data is usually revised with the Factory Orders report released about a week later and “Durable Goods” are defined as products that last longer than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances and airplanes. It is a leading indicator of production and gives a preliminary indication of the vitality of the economy. Core Durable Goods Orders shows the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. This dataset has been shown to have complex effects on the value of digital assets.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider it a very important development that a strategic crypto reserve is on the agenda, which started with Trump’s nomination process. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections, combined with the “less than perfect” news on this issue, put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long term. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, create enthusiasm in the crypto market, and that concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually begin to dissipate, and in this parallel, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish expectation. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time (UTC) | News / Event | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | Golem (GLM): JavaScript API Release | – | – |
| Day 4 | IMF Meetings | – | – |
| 12:30 | US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| 12:30 | US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 12:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 222K | 215K |
| 14:00 | US Existing Home Sales (Mar) | 4.14M | 4.26M |
| 15:00 | US Bitcoin Futures Expiration | – | – |
| 17:00 | US SEC Commissioner Uyeda Speaks | – | – |
| 21:00 | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | – | – |
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone.
The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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