Market Compass – September 26 – October 03, 2025
Challenging Week for Digital Asset Traders…
Digital assets, which gained value on expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) would cut interest rates in light of the latest data, taking into account the deterioration in the employment market, left behind a bad week. In fact, as expected, the FED had decided to cut interest rates at its meeting on September 17. There was even a sign that there could be two more rate cuts for the rest of the year. Cryptocurrencies, which rose a little more after the meeting decisions, faced significant losses afterwards.
On September 18, Bitcoin, which managed to approach the $ 118,000 barrier, started to lose value with the negative effects of the intensity of leveraged transactions. While a significant amount of long trades were liquidated with this decline, the losses gradually widened and at the time of this report on Friday, it was still trading below 109 thousand dollars. FED Chairman Powell’s refraining from giving clear signals about future interest rate cuts and concerns on Wall Street that technology companies may be overvalued also contributed to the deterioration in risk appetite and contributed to the price declines in digital assets.
It is still hard to say that the worst is over for BTC, the largest cryptocurrency, which has lost ten thousand dollars in about a week. Macro indicators and the risk appetite of global markets continue to be important dynamics. In this context, we can say that data on the strength of the US employment market, which has been the important story of recent months, will be carefully monitored. At this point, the data to be released on October 3 has the potential to be a critical turning point. The non-farm payrolls change, which will provide information on whether the FED will continue to cut interest rates, and the average hourly earnings and unemployment rate, which will be announced with the same report, are likely to be the main story of next week. In this context, we will open a separate parenthesis for the non-farm payroll change data this week.
October 3 – US Employment Data
We are in the midst of a period of surprising macroeconomic data on the US economy and global markets will be closely watching the employment indicators for September, especially in an environment where retrospective revisions by the agencies releasing the figures are attracting attention. The Non-Farm Payrolls Change (NFP) will be in focus among the data set that will provide valuable information about the next interest rate change move by the US Federal Reserve (FED).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made the deepest downward revisions in history for the previous months, revealing that the labor market in the world’s largest economy may not be as tight and strong as expected. This data caused the FED to change its stance on interest rates, leading to a redistribution of cards in financial markets. The October 3 release of the new NFP for September will be critical ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29.
Source: Bloomberg
Our forecast for the highly sensitive NFP data is that the US economy in the non-farm sectors in September will be higher than the market expectation. At the time of writing, although the number of forecasts entered is small, we see that the consensus (median forecast) in the Bloomberg survey is more pessimistic, around 50 thousand (This expectation figure may change later with the entry of new forecasts and surveys).
Source: Bloomberg
We believe that if the NFP data for September is slightly below expectations, this may strengthen expectations that the FED may act more boldly to cut interest rates, thus increasing risk appetite and having a positive impact on financial instruments, including digital assets. We think that a slightly higher-than-expected data may have a similar but opposite effect. On the other hand, a much lower-than-expected figure could lead to a perception that the risk of a recession in the US economy has re-emerged. In this case, risk appetite may be suppressed, and cryptocurrencies may lose value. Therefore, we underline that we think it will be important for traders to know this difference.
Other Important Macro Indicators and Developments
September 30 – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); shows the number of job openings in the reported month, excluding the agricultural sector. Since job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large share of overall economic activity, JOLTS data are closely monitored. This data is published monthly, approximately 35 days after the end of the month. A lower than expected figure is expected to have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.
October 1 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; shows the estimated change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding the agricultural sector and the public sector, by analyzing payroll data from more than 25 million employees to obtain estimates of employment growth by Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP). It usually gives a hint of employment growth 2 days before the employment data released by the government. Generally, lower-than-expected ADP data has a positive impact on digital assets.
October 1 – ISM Manufacturing PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on purchasing managers surveyed in the manufacturing sector. In this survey, conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), around 300 purchasing managers are asked to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is released monthly, usually on the first business day after the end of the month, and scores above 50.0 indicate that the sector is expanding, while scores below 50.0 indicate contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. However, in some cases, it can also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, higher-than-expected numbers would have a positive impact on digital assets.
October 3 – ISM Services PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing sector. In this survey, conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), around 300 purchasing managers are asked to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is released monthly, usually on the third business day after the end of the month, and a score above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding, while a score below 50.0 indicates contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Services PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. However, in some cases, it can also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, higher-than-expected figures would have a positive impact on digital assets.
Important Economic Calendar Data
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Information:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news in the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions.
Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes arising from similar situations. You can also check the Darkex Calendar page or the economic calendar section in the daily reports for possible changes in the content and timing of data releases.
*General Information About Forecasts
In addition to the general market expectations, the forecasts shared in this report are based on econometric modeling tools developed by our research department. Different structures were considered for each indicator, and appropriate regression models were constructed in line with data frequency (monthly/quarterly), leading economic indicators and data history.
The basic approach in all models is to interpret historical relationships based on data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform in an up-to-date and automated manner, so that every forecast is based on the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working on artificial intelligence-based modeling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) in order to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account in the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept in mind that there may be deviations in forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this monthly updated working set, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.
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